* This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting. [CALL TO ORDER] [00:00:03] ALL RIGHT. WE ARE GONNA CALL THIS EVENING'S JOINT PLANNING COMMISSION AND CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE MEETING TO ORDER. WE HAVE A, A LIVELY ROOM TODAY. I THINK MOSTLY OF EITHER COMMISSION MEMBERS, COMMITTEE MEMBERS AND FOLKS THAT ARE PRESENTING. BUT EITHER WAY, I'LL TAKE A LIVELY ROOM. I'M GONNA GET THINGS STARTED BY WELCOMING OUR CLIMATE ACTION COMMITTEE MEMBERS. IT'S GREAT TO BE GOING THROUGH THIS TOGETHER WITH YOU. I'D LIKE TO ASK IF OUR, UH, CLERK WOULD TAKE ROLE. COMMISSIONER BAUER HERE. COMMISSIONER MOSES? HERE. COMMISSIONER MCCARLEY. COMMISSIONER MCCARLEY. HERE. COMMISSIONER KUSON? HERE. COMMISSIONER WIMAN. HERE. COUNCIL MEMBER CATER THOMPSON. HERE. CHAIR HOOPER HERE WITH PLANNING COMMISSION QUORUM. NOW MOVING ON TO THE ACTION COMMISSION. UH, COMM. COMMISSIONER LEY HERE. COMMISSIONER BAKER. ABSENT. UH, COMMISSIONER M. ADMINISTER HERE. COMMISSIONER SCHIBS. ABSENT. COMMISSIONER AMP? YES. COMMISSIONER GARDY. HERE. CHAIR PETERS HERE. WE HAVE A QUORUM. EXCELLENT. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. UH, WE'RE GOING TO MOVE STRAIGHT INTO STRAIGHT INTO PUBLIC COMMENT. DURING GENERAL PUBLIC COMMENT, THE PUBLIC IS INVITED TO MAKE COMMENTS ON ITEMS OF PUBLIC INTERESTS THAT ARE WITHIN THE PLANNING COMMISSION SUBJECT MATTER JURISDICTION, AND THAT ARE NOT LISTED ON THE CURRENT AGENDA. PUBLIC COMMENTS ARE LIMITED UP TO THREE MINUTES PER PERSON. DEPENDING ON THE NUMBER OF PERSONS WISHING TO ADDRESS THE PLANNING COMMISSION. TIME WILL BE ALLOCATED AND EQUAL SHARES TOTALING NO MORE THAN 15 MINUTES. UH, DO WE HAVE ANY SPEAKERS THAT HAVE, DO WE HAVE ANY SPEAKERS THAT HAVE COME HERE PLANNING TO MAKE A GENERAL PUBLIC COMMENT TONIGHT? JUST WANNA CHECK. I FIGURED. PROBABLY NOT. UH, AND I JUST WANTED TO ASK THE, JUST WANTED TO ASK THE CLERK IF WE RECEIVED ANY, UH, PUBLIC COMMENTS PRIOR TO THE MEETING WE RECEIVED. NO GENERAL PUBLIC COMMENTS PRIOR TO THE MEETING. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. WITH THAT, WE WILL CLOSE OUT AND WE WILL GO STRAIGHT TO, UH, APPROVAL OF THE MINUTES. SINCE WE DON'T HAVE ANY PRESENTATIONS TODAY, UM, THERE ARE NO MINUTES TO APPROVE, SO WE'LL MOVE STRAIGHT PAST THAT AND MOVE INTO OUR PUBLIC HEARING IN MATTERS OF [PUBLIC HEARINGS AND MATTERS FOR CONSIDERATION] CONSIDERATION. AND FOR TONIGHT, WE WILL BE DEALING WITH A THOROUGH STUDY SESSION, UH, WITH REGARDS TO OUR RISE MAPPING. AND WITH THAT IN MIND, UH, I WOULD LIKE TO INVITE STAFF TO COME UP AND START THE PRESENTATION. THANK YOU. GOOD EVENING, CHAIR HOOPER, CHAIR PETERS COMMISSIONERS. UM, I'M GONNA KICK THIS PRESENTATION OFF, UM, BUT, AND THEN QUICKLY GOING TO HAND IT OVER, UM, TO MY COLLEAGUES TO KIND OF DO A DEEPER DIVE INTO THE TOPIC. UM, THIS IS QUITE A TECHNICAL DISCUSSION. UM, SO WE ARE LOOKING FORWARD TO, UM, A DISCUSSION AND FIELDING YOUR QUESTIONS AND TALKING ABOUT THE PROCESS THAT WE WENT THROUGH, UM, IN DOING THE FLOOD AND SEA LEVEL RISE, UH, MAPPING AND MODELING, UM, AS PART OF OUR GENERAL PLAN UPDATE. SO NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE. UM, SO A LITTLE BIT OF BACKGROUND, UM, JUST THE CONTEXT. UM, WE RECENTLY COMPLETED, UM, A, A NEW FLOOD MODELING WITH SLR. UM, AND THIS WAS DONE, UM, AS A FOUNDATIONAL MATERIAL FOR THE GENERAL PLAN. UM, THE IMPORTANCE OF UNDERSTANDING OUR FLOOD RISK, THE IMPORTANCE OF UNDERSTANDING THE ADDED, UM, THE ADDED IMPACT OF OUR CHANGING CLIMATE, UM, INCLUDING SEA LEVEL RISE, UM, WAS AS, AS YOU ALL KNOW, AND AS WE DISCUSSED IN THE COMMUNITY, WAS A REALLY ESSENTIAL PART OF, UM, WHEN WE START LOOKING AT THE VISION FOR PETALUMA. SO, UM, PARTICULARLY KEY IN LAND USE, UM, AND RESILIENCY PLANNING AS PART OF OUR GENERAL PLAN. SO THIS WAS AN EFFORT TO, UM, CREATE THAT FOUNDATIONAL BASIS. UM, IT TOOK A BIT LONGER THAN WE HAD ORIGINALLY THOUGHT IT WOULD, UM, BUT, UM, THE RESULTS ARE SOMETHING THAT, UM, [00:05:01] OUR, OUR TEAM, OUR CITY TEAM, UM, OUR CONSULTANT TEAM, UM, FEELS REALLY PROUD OF AS, UM, GIVING US THAT FOUNDATION TO MOVE FORWARD WITH THE GENERAL PLAN DISCUSSION. SO THE PRESENTATION THAT WE ARE, UM, THAT YOU ALL WILL BE HEARING TONIGHT IS A PRESENTATION THAT WE HAVE DONE WITH THE GENERAL PLAN ADVISORY COMMITTEE. WE HAVE DONE IT, UM, WITH MEMBERS OF THE COMMUNITY IN A COMMUNITY MEETING. AND MOST RECENTLY, UH, WE MADE A SIMILAR PRESENTATION, UM, TO THE CITY COUNCIL. SO TONIGHT, GIVEN, UM, THE EXPERTISE AND THE PURVIEW OF THESE TWO BOARDS WHERE BEFORE YOU, UM, TO ALSO SHARE THE BACKGROUND, THE METHODOLOGY, UM, AND SO THAT YOU UNDERSTAND THE STUDY THAT, UM, WAS DONE AND THE RESULTS THAT WE ARE WORKING WITH. NEXT SLIDE PLEASE. SO THIS IS AN EFFORT TO REALLY, UM, SET THAT FOUNDATION WITH OUR GENERAL PLAN UPDATE. SO BEFORE GOING INTO THE METHODOLOGY AND, UM, THE MODELING AND MAPPING, I THOUGHT IT WAS HELPFUL, UM, TO GIVE A LITTLE UPDATE ON GENERAL PLAN. UM, SO THIS IS OUR ROADMAP, WHICH YOU'VE PROBABLY ALL SEEN, UM, IN DIFFERENT ITERATIONS. THAT BLUE STAR IS WHERE WE ARE NOW. WE ARE WORKING WITH BOTH POLICY DEVELOPMENT AND LAND USE ALTERNATIVES CURRENTLY. UH, YOU'LL SEE THE HOUSING ELEMENT, WHICH WAS ADOPTED AND CERTIFIED RELEASE OF THE BLUEPRINT, WHICH YOU SEE THERE. AND THEN A NEW THING ON THIS MAP BETWEEN THE FIVE AND SIX IS A ZONING CODE UPDATE. AND THAT'S REALLY, WE ARE STARTING TO KIND OF MOVE INTO GEAR TO FIGURE OUT HOW TO INITIATE THE ZONING CODE UPDATE WHILE WE'RE DOING THE GENERAL PLAN, SO THAT THAT CAN BE UPDATED AS PART OF, OR QUICKLY AFTER. UM, SO THAT WE DO NOT END UP WITH AN IMPLEMENTING ZONING ORDINANCE THAT NEVER GETS UPDATED WITH THE ADOPTION OF THE GENERAL PLAN. SO, UM, THAT'S SOMETHING THAT WE'RE STARTING TO TALK ABOUT HOW TO KICK THAT OFF AND HAVE THAT BE WORKING CONCURRENTLY WITH THE LATTER HALF OF THE GENERAL PLAN PROCESS. AND THEN, OF COURSE, WE ARE LOOKING FOR, UM, ADOPTION OF THE GENERAL PLAN AND, UM, THE ASSOCIATED ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT REPORT IN LATE 2025. NEXT SLIDE, PLEASE. SO THERE'S A LOT HAPPENING WITH THE GENERAL PLAN, AND SO I WANTED TO JUST GO THROUGH A COUPLE SLIDES TO GRAPHICALLY REPRESENT KIND OF WHERE WE ARE AND HOW WE'RE MOVING. UM, SO WE ARE CURRENTLY FINALIZING SOME POLICY FRAMEWORKS, UM, THAT WILL BE COMING OUT FOR PUBLIC REVIEW IN THE NEXT MONTH OR SO. UM, AND STARTING AT THEIR OWN, UM, COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT EFFORT AROUND THOSE GOING TO THE CCBS. WE ARE ALSO, UM, STARTING TO TALK ABOUT LAND USE ALTERNATIVES. WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT AREAS OF CHANGE AND SOME OF THE LAND USE, UM, KIND OF FUNDAMENTAL DISCUSSION POINTS WITH THE JOURNAL PLAN ADVISORY COMMITTEE. AND THEN THE FLOOD PLAIN AND SEA LEVEL RISE MAPPING. YOU'LL SEE AT THE TOP THERE, IT'S KIND OF FEEDING INTO BOTH OF THOSE. UM, SO THIS IS THE PROCESS THAT WE'RE WORKING ON. UM, AND WE WILL HAVE A NUMBER OF PLACES WHERE BOTH OF THESE, UM, COMMISSIONS PROVIDE INPUT AS WELL AS, UM, A SERIES OF COMMUNITY, OTHER COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT EFFORTS AS WE MOVE THROUGH THAT PROCESS. NEXT SLIDE. AND THEN ADDING TO THE TOP OF THAT, THE ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW PROCESS. SO THE ENVIRONMENTAL REVIEW PROCESS IS GENERALLY ABOUT A YEAR PROCESS. UM, AND THAT REALLY KICKS OFF IN EARNEST ONCE THE CITY HAS A FINAL PREFERRED LAND USE ALTERNATIVE. 'CAUSE WE NEED TO HAVE THAT KIND OF FUNDAMENTAL, UH, STABLE PROJECT DESCRIPTION IN TERMS OF OUR LAND USE THAT WE WILL STUDY WITH THAT PROGRAMMATIC EIR. SO, UM, SHOWING THAT WHEN WE GET TO THE FINAL PREFERRED ALTERNATIVE, THAT'S WHEN THAT SQA PROCESS WILL BEGIN AND IT WILL RERUN CONCURRENTLY WITH THE PUBLIC DRAFT AND, UM, CONSIDERATION, UM, OF THE PUBLIC DRAFT. AND, UH, LEADING TO THAT FINAL ADOPTION NEXT SLIDE, AND THEN ADDING THE BLUEPRINT. SO YOU'LL SEE THE TWO SQUARES AT THE BOTTOM REALLY ARE THE BLUEPRINT, UH, WHICH HAS BEEN OUT FOR PUBLIC REVIEW, CCB REVIEW, UM, SINCE OCTOBER. SO WE NOW HAVE ALL OF THOSE, UM, COMMENTS FROM THE CCBS, COMMENTS FROM MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC. AND WE ARE ALSO LOOKING, UM, TO BRING THAT DISCUSSION TO THE CITY COUNCIL NEXT MONTH. UM, AND [00:10:01] THEN BOTH OF THESE BODIES WILL SEE THAT FINAL UPDATED, UM, DRAFT OF THE BLUEPRINT FOR FORMAL RECOMMENDATION TO THE CITY COUNCIL. SO SOMETHING, UM, TO LOOK FORWARD TO. AND ALSO JUST ACKNOWLEDGING THAT THAT IS OUT AHEAD OF THE GENERAL PLAN FOR ADOPTION OF THE BLUEPRINT BEFORE ADOPTION OF THE GENERAL PLAN, WHICH I THINK THIS GROUP ALL IS AWARE OF BASED ON THE DISCUSSIONS WE'VE HAD AT BOTH THE COMMISSIONS. NEXT SLIDE. SO, FOCUSING FOR A MINUTE ON THE POLICY FRAMEWORKS, AND I KNOW TONIGHT'S DISCUSSION ABOUT THE MAPPING AND THE METHODOLOGY, UM, AROUND FLOOD AND SEA LEVEL RISE, IT'S GOING TO KIND OF BEG THE, THE DESIRE TO JUMP INTO POLICY AND WHAT DOES THIS MEAN AND WHAT'S THIS GONNA LOOK LIKE IN OUR POLICY? AND I'M JUST GONNA KIND OF SAY THAT'S THE NEXT STEP. SO TONIGHT IS REALLY ABOUT RECEIVING THE INFORMATION, ASKING QUESTIONS ABOUT THE METHODOLOGY. WHY DID WE USE THIS? WHY DIDN'T WE USE THAT? UM, AND TAPPING OUR TECHNICAL EXPERTS, UM, AND REST ASSURED THAT THERE WILL BE TIME TO TALK ABOUT POLICY WHEN THE RESILIENCY FRAMEWORK COMES OUT. AND BOTH OF THESE COMMISSIONS, UM, WILL BE REVIEWING THAT TO PROVIDE COMMENTS ON TAKING THAT FOUNDATIONAL INFORMATION AND HOW IT'S TRANSLATED INTO, UM, THE RESILIENCY FRAMEWORK THAT WILL, UM, BE ONE OF THE ELEMENTS OF THE GENERAL PLAN. SO THE POLICY FRAMEWORKS, THERE'S, THERE'S, I THINK THERE'S 14 OF 'EM. WE'LL BE COMING OUT, LIKE I SAID, IN ABOUT THE NEXT MONTH OR SO. UM, AND THERE'LL BE A NUMBER OF WAYS TO GET ENGAGED FOR MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND THE CCBS. AND THEN THOSE POLICY FRAMEWORKS BECOME THE ELEMENTS OF THE GENERAL PLAN. SO JUST KIND OF MAKING SURE THAT, YOU KNOW, UM, THAT THERE WILL BE AN OPPORTUNITY TO TALK ABOUT THE POLICY THAT THE FLOOD MODELING THAT WE'LL TALK ABOUT TODAY IS INFORMING. NEXT SLIDE. AND THIS KIND OF TOUCHES ON THOSE DRAFT POLICY FRAMEWORKS, AGAIN, ALTHOUGH THIS IS FEELS VERY SMALL WRITING TO ME. UM, BUT YOU'LL SEE ON EITHER SIDE IT'S THOSE 14, THOSE 14 FRAMEWORKS. UM, SO THESE HAVE REALLY, UM, BEEN DRAFTED THROUGH A NUMBER OF INPUTS. THERE WAS STUFF IN OUR HOUSING ELEMENT THAT, UM, IS THEN, UM, MOVED INTO THE FRAMEWORKS, THE EXISTING CONDITIONS THAT YOU ALL WILL REMEMBER WE DID SOME TIME AGO, COMMUNITY INPUT, THE VISION AND GUIDING PRINCIPLES THAT THE GPAC WORKED ON, THE MODELING, THE GPAC INPUT. SO ALL THESE THINGS HAVE BEEN TAKEN IS INPUTS INTO DEVELOPING THOSE DRAFT POLICY FRAMEWORKS. UM, AND ULTIMATELY THEY WILL THEN FEED INTO THE GENERAL PLAN, THE DRAFT GENERAL PLAN, AND THE FINAL GENERAL PLAN. SO THAT'S, THAT'S WHAT WE HAVE TO LOOK FORWARD TO COMING TO A MEETING NEAR YOU IN THE NEAR FUTURE. NEXT SLIDE. SO I FEEL LIKE I KEEP REPEATING MYSELF ON THIS ONE. FRAMEWORKS ARE COMING, UH, GENERAL PLAN ADVISORY COMMITTEE IS GONNA BE, UM, BREAKING INTO THEIR WORKING GROUPS AGAIN, WHICH THEY DID, UM, EARLIER IN THE, UM, VISIONING PHASE. UH, THEY WILL BE LOOKING AT THE DIFFERENT FRAMEWORKS. WE WILL ALSO, UM, BE GIVING CCBS AN OPPORTUNITY TO REVIEW, UM, AND SPECIFICALLY ONES THAT REALLY RELATE TO THEIR, UM, PURVIEW. UM, AND WE ARE ALSO LOOKING, RIGHT NOW, WE ARE WORKING TOWARDS A COMM COMMUNITY WORKSHOP IN MAY, UM, WHERE THERE'LL BE A CHANCE TO GET A LOT OF INFORMATION, UM, IN AN OPEN HOUSE FORMAT, UM, WITH BOTH STAFF AND SOME OF THE, UM, SUBCONSULTANTS TECHNICAL EXPERTS, UM, THAT INFORMED 'EM. UM, ALSO, I'VE SOMETHING THAT WILL BE COMING SOON AS THE REVIEW OF LAND USE ALTERNATIVES. UM, SO WE WILL START HAVING SOME OF THOSE CONVERSATIONS WITH PLANNING COMMISSION AND PUBLIC MEETINGS. NEXT SLIDE. SO THAT'S KIND OF A QUICK OVERVIEW, A LOT TO COME. WE'RE IN A REALLY EXCITING POINT IN THE JOURNAL PLAN BECAUSE THINGS ARE STARTING TO COME TOGETHER, STARTING TO HAVE THOSE DISCUSSIONS. UM, SO UNLESS THERE ARE ANY QUESTIONS SPECIFIC TO THAT TIMELINE, I'M READY TO HAND IT OVER, UM, TO GINA, UM, TO KICK OFF KIND OF THE, THE MAIN ATTRACTION OF TONIGHT'S MEETING. THANK YOU, HEATHER. I, HEATHER, THINK WE'RE GOOD TO GO? OH, ABSOLUTELY. THANKS. UM, HEATHER, UH, SLIDE SEVEN. I WAS CURIOUS WHEN I REVIEWED THE MATERIAL EARLIER, THE BLUEPRINT'S SHOWN PARALLEL, BUT IT, THERE ARE NO CONNECTING [00:15:01] ARROWS, SO I'D LOVE CLARIFICATION ON HOW THE BLUEPRINT INFORMS THE OTHER PIECES HERE, OR VICE VERSA. YEAH, THANK YOU. IT WILL BE, THERE WILL BE SOME THINGS. YOU WILL SEE SOME OF THE THINGS THAT ARE IN THE BLUEPRINT, ALSO IN SOME OF THE POLICY FRAMEWORKS IN TERMS OF THE POLICIES OR PROGRAMS. YOU'LL ALSO SEE, WE ARE MAKING SURE THAT, UH, THE LAND USE ALTERNATIVES AND THE BLUEPRINT ARE TRACKING WELL TOGETHER, WHERE THOSE, THOSE COME TOGETHER. UM, SO IT WILL INFORM THOSE AS WELL. PHILOSOPHICALLY, I'D LOVE TO SEE ARROWS SHOWING THAT. OKAY. YOU GOT IT. THANK YOU. IS WAS THERE A TECHNICAL ISSUE THAT NEEDED TO BE ADDRESSED? WE'RE ALL SET. YOU'RE ALL SET. OKAY. IF THERE, IF THERE ARE NO OTHER QUESTIONS, I THINK WE CAN MOVE ON TO THE NEXT STEP OF THE PRESENTATION. OKAY. THANK YOU. UH, GOOD EVENING COMMISSIONERS. UH, HAPPY TO BE HERE. MANY OF YOU KNOW ME. IF YOU PROBABLY HAVEN'T MET ME, I'M GINA BENEDETTI NIK, I'M THE ASSISTANT DIRECTOR OF PUBLIC WORKS AND UTILITIES. AND, UH, I'LL BE INTRODUCING, UM, TWO OF, UH, OUR FINEST CONSULTANTS, UH, THIS EVENING WHO'VE DONE THE LION'S SHARE OF THE TECHNICAL WORK ON, ON THIS PROJECT TODAY. AND WE'LL BE HELPING PRESENT AND, UH, ANSWER, UH, SOME QUESTIONS TOWARD THE END. WE ALSO HAVE, UH, A STAFF MEMBER, PAMELA TUFT HERE, UH, WHO WILL BE AVAILABLE DURING Q AND A, UH, WHO WORKS WITH ME IN FLOOD ADMINISTRATION. AND, UM, WITH THAT, I'LL, UM, UH, I, I WANT TO JUST FRAME A LITTLE BIT OF WHAT YOU'RE GONNA BE LOOKING AT THIS EVENING. SO IT'S GOING TO GET A BIT TECHNICAL. IT'S FASCINATING WORK. THE MODELING HAS BEEN, UH, HAS BEEN A, A VERY RIGOROUS PROCESS AND A VERY THOROUGH ONE. AND WE'RE GOING TO DO OUR BEST TO BRING IT TO YOU AT A, UM, AT A LEVEL OF, UH, DETAIL THAT IS NOT OVERWHELMING, BUT DETAILED ENOUGH. I THINK THAT'S GOING TO BE COMPELLING AND PROBABLY RAISE A LOT OF QUESTIONS. SO WE'RE LOOKING FORWARD TO THAT. BUT IT IS A BIT TECHNICAL. UH, WE'RE GONNA BE TALKING ABOUT FLOOD HAZARDS AND, UH, WE, WE TALK ABOUT FLOOD, UM, COMING DOWN OUR WATERSHED FROM RAINFALL. AND THAT IS THE DATA THAT WE RECEIVE FROM THAT IS, UH, GIVES US OUR FLOOD MODELS. AND WE ALSO WILL BE TALKING ABOUT FLOODS THAT COME UP FROM THE BAY. AND WE HAVE, UM, WE HAVE STORM SURGE, WE HAVE DAILY TIDES, WE HAVE KING TIDES, BIG, BIG TIDES THAT OCCUR A FEW TIMES A YEAR. AND WE NOW HAVE, UM, CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS FROM SEA LEVEL RISE THAT ALSO COME UP THE BAY. SO, UM, UH, THE, THE FLOOD RISK PLANNING THAT WE'RE STARTING, UH, TO, TO PERFORM HERE IS GOING, UH, TO IMPACT OUR LAND USE DECISIONS AND POLICYMAKING. AND AGAIN, AS HEATHER POINTED OUT, UM, THAT'S THE BIG, THE BIG NUT TO CRACK AFTER WE'VE DEVELOPED ALL OF THESE MODELS AND THESE DATA POINTS TO, TO USE AS A TOOL IN, IN REALLY, UM, SORTING THROUGH HOW WE WANT THE, HOW WE WANT TO USE THESE FOR OUR POLICIES, UH, IN LAND USE. UM, SO FOR TODAY, WE JUST WANT TO UNDERSTAND THE HAZARD AREAS, UH, THAT, THAT WE, UH, HAVE BEEN DEFINING. AND, UM, UH, WANT YOU TO THINK ABOUT THIS, ASK QUESTIONS AND, AND START HELPING US UNDERSTAND, UH, WHAT, WHAT YOU AND WHAT THE COMMUNITY, UH, NEED TO KNOW AND, AND WANT TO LEARN ABOUT THIS. SO I'M GONNA MOVE RIGHT OVER INTO FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT. THAT'S PART OF MY WORLD IN PUBLIC WORKS. I'M, UH, UH, I'M TASKED TO, UM, TO MANAGE OUR FLOODPLAIN. UH, AND, AND I ASSIST WITH THE PLANNING. I, WE COORDINATE IN PUBLIC WORKS WITH OUR PLANNING DEPARTMENT, UM, TO, UH, TO, UH, EMBARK ON MAJOR, IN THIS CASE, UH, MAJOR PLANNING EFFORTS AROUND THE FLOODPLAIN. AND, UH, PART OF WHAT WE DO, ALL OF IT, OF COURSE, IN THE CENTER OF THAT SLIDE, YOU SEE IS KEEPING PETALUMA SAFE. SO YOU, YOU KNOW, OUR, [00:20:01] OUR BOTTOM LINE IS, IS SAFETY AND UNDERSTANDING THE HAZARDS, BEING ABLE TO MODEL THEM AND LOOK AT THEM AND MAP THEM AND UNDERSTAND HOW TO USE THEM TO PROTECT THE COMMUNITY AS BEST WE CAN. UH, WHETHER THE FLOOD IS FROM THE RAIN OR WHETHER THE FLOOD IS FROM THE BAY, UH, OR BOTH AT THE SAME TIME. UH, WHICH OF COURSE IS, IS WHAT WE'RE GONNA BE, WHAT WE'RE GONNA BE DEALT. SO WE COORDINATE WITH FEMA, THE FEDERAL, FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION. AND, UH, UH, PART OF THAT COORDINATION IS, UH, IS THE, UM, THE INVOLVEMENT AND PARTICIPATION IN AN, IN A PROGRAM CALLED CRS. SORRY ABOUT ALL THE ACRONYMS, BUT THEY EXIST, AND I'LL TRY AND EXPLAIN THEM AS I GO. CRS IS STANDS FOR COMMUNITY RATING SYSTEM, AND IT IS A PROGRAM FROM THE, UH, NATIONAL FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM, WHICH IS, UH, ADMINISTERED THROUGH FEMA. AND THAT IS THE PROGRAM THAT, UH, ALLOWS US TO PARTICIPATE AND, AND, AND, UH, GAIN CREDITS, UH, WITH FEMA TO, UM, TO, UH, UH, ENABLE LOWER INSURANCE PREMIUMS FOR OUR RESIDENTS WHO RESIDE IN THE FLOODPLAIN. SO BY DEMONSTRATING THAT WE CAN'T, THAT WE ARE DOING ABOVE AND BEYOND IN TERMS OF THE FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT THAT WE DO IN PETALUMA, WHETHER IT'S COMMUNITY INFORMATION, WHETHER IT'S PROTECTION OF STRUCTURES, WHETHER IT'S, UM, YOU KNOW, UH, FLOOD PROTECTION PROJECTS, WHATEVER IT MIGHT BE, BY DEMONSTRATING THAT VERY CAREFULLY AND VERY METHODICALLY, WE CAN GAIN CREDITS AND OFFER A DISCOUNT. AND CURRENTLY WITH OUR CRS RATING, WE OFFER A, WE ARE ABLE TO OFFER A 20% DISCOUNT IN, UH, INSURANCE, FLOOD INSURANCE PREMIUMS TO OUR, UH, TO OUR RESIDENTS IN THE FLOODPLAIN. AND, UM, UH, WHAT ELSE DO I HAVE ON HERE? OF COURSE, WE'RE PREPARING FOR THE FUTURE. UH, AT THE BOTTOM WE'RE UPDATING OUR FLOOD MODELS AND MAPS. THE LAST TIME OUR, UH, FLOOD MAPS WE'RE UPDATED WAS, UH, IN, IN A MAJOR WAY. THEY'RE, THEY'RE CONSTANTLY UPDATED FOR MINOR CHANGES, BUT, UH, THE LAST MAJOR WORK WAS DONE OVER WELL OVER A DECADE AGO. AND, UH, UH, WE'LL TALK A LITTLE BIT MORE ABOUT THAT COMING UP. UM, AND THE OTHER THING THAT, THAT I, UH, THAT I HAVEN'T MENTIONED, WE, WE TALK ABOUT BAY WATER COMING UP THE RIVER. WE TALK ABOUT RAIN COMING DOWN, BUT THE RAIN IS COMING DOWN THE WATER FROM THE WATERSHED VIA ALL THESE CREEKS. WE HAVE A LOT OF CREEKS IN PETALUMA, AND THEY ARE ALL, UM, THE, THE FLOW IN THOSE CREEKS IS CONTRIBUTING NOT JUST TO THE WATER AND THE RIVER, BUT THE CREEKS THEMSELVES HAVE LIMITS. AND, AND WE HIT THOSE LIMITS AND WE FLOOD AROUND OUR CREEKS TOO. AND SO OUR FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT HAS TO DO WITH THE, THE SMALLER CREEKS, UM, FROM THE WATERSHED ALL AROUND THE CITY OF PETALUMA. AND I NEED TO FIND THE NEXT SLIDE WHERE, THERE WE GO. OKAY. THANKS. UM, SO OUR FLOOD MAPPING UPDATE PROCESS, UH, I MENTIONED THAT WE HAD A VERY RIGOROUS PROCESS. WE, UM, WE SOUGHT GUIDANCE FROM THE NATIONAL AND STATE EXPERTS IN THE FIELD. SO, UH, WE USE GUIDANCE FROM FEMA, FEDERAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ASSOCIATION FROM NOAA, UH, THE, UM, UH, OCEANIC AND ATMOSPHERIC ASSOCIATION, AND FROM CALIFORNIA OPC AND, UH, OFFICE OF PLANNING, OCEAN PROTECTION COUNCIL, OH, SORRY. OCEAN PROTECTION COUNCIL. THANK YOU. YES. OPR, WHICH ALSO GIVES GUIDANCE. YEAH, RIGHT. UM, AND, UH, WE, UH, UH, DAVE SMITH, WHO I'LL BE INTRODUCING SHORTLY, WILL BE GOING INTO SOME OF, SOME OF THE FLOOD MAPPING MODELING THAT WAS DONE, AND TALKING ABOUT HOW THE COMPLEXITIES OF THAT MAPPING THE DATA THAT WE USE NEW DATA, MORE ROBUST DATA THAN WE'VE EVER HAD BEFORE TO WORK WITH. AND ALSO, UH, UH, A MORE ROBUST, UM, MODELING SOFTWARE THAT, THAT WE USE FOR THIS PROCESS. WE ALSO HAVE, IN THIS LATEST PROCESS, UH, A LOT OF NEW, UH, RAINFALL DATA. SO THIS IS HISTORIC DATA, UH, AND IT IS WHAT IS USED FOR OUR, FOR OUR FLOOD MODELS AND THE RAIN DATA THAT WE HAVE. U USED IS [00:25:01] MORE CURRENT. IT IS, THERE IS MORE OF IT. WE USED RAINFALL DATA FROM, UH, FROM, UH, SURROUNDING AREAS IN THE WATERSHED AS WELL AS IN TOWN, UH, THAT WE HAD NEVER HAD ACCESS TO BE TO BEFORE. AND, AND IT IS A MORE COMPLETE RAINFALL DATA SET. SO AT ANY GIVEN, UH, POINT WHERE WE'RE COLLECTING RAINFALL DATA, IF IT'S, IF IT'S A SHORT DIRECT, MAYBE THERE'S ONLY, IF IT'S A RELATIVELY NEW GAUGE, MAYBE THERE'S ONLY FIVE YEARS OF DATA, AND THAT'S NOT ENOUGH. WE NEED, WE NEED GOOD, UH, YOU KNOW, THE, THE MORE, THE LARGER THE DATA SET, THE LONGER, THE MORE HISTORICAL, THE BETTER VIEW WE GET OF, OF THE BEHAVIOR OF, OF THE WATERSHED. SO, UH, WE HAVE QUITE A BIT MORE DATA THAT WE'VE USED IN THIS PROCESS. AND THEN FOR THE FIRST TIME, WE HAVE NOW INCORPORATED PREDICTIVE SEA LEVEL RISE DATA IN THE PROCESS. SO ONE OF THE THINGS WE HEARD FROM THE COMMUNITY, I HEARD FROM THE COMMUNITY LOUD AND CLEAR, AND I KNOW HEATHER, YOU HEARD THIS MANY TIMES FROM, UM, ESPECIALLY FROM OUR PLANNING COMMISSIONS, UH, IS THAT, YOU KNOW, WHAT GOOD ARE THESE FLOOD MAPS? IF WE'RE NOT LOOKING AT SEA LEVEL RISE, WHY ARE YOU JUST TELLING US HISTORICALLY WHAT KIND OF A HUNDRED YEAR STORM WE'RE GONNA SEE WHEN WE KNOW THINGS ARE CHANGING? WE KNOW THE CLIMATE PATTERNS ARE CHANGING, WE KNOW THAT THE SEA LEVEL IS RISING. WHY AREN'T WE LOOKING AT ALL AT IT COMPREHENSIVELY? AND, UH, AND THAT IS WHAT WE ARE, DO WHAT WE HAVE DONE NOW WITH THIS MODELING PROCESS THAT WE'RE GONNA BE EXPLAINING TO YOU. SO, UM, TO OUR, UH, TO OUR CONSULTANTS, I'M FIRST GOING TO INTRODUCE DAVE SMITH. HE'S JOINING US FROM SAN DIEGO. SO HE IS REMOTE, UH, ON OUR ZOOM WEBINAR. AND, UM, UH, HE REPRESENTS WEST CONSULTANTS. HE'S A SENIOR VP AT WEST CONSULTANTS. AND, UH, WES HAS BEEN PROVIDING PUBLIC PRIVATE CLIENTS WITH CONSULTING SERVICES, UH, NATIONALLY AND INTERNATIONALLY. THEY HAVE 60 PROFESSIONALS, UM, AND, UH, UH, MANY OF THEM WITH ADVANCED DEGREES AND WATER RESOURCES. THEY ARE TEACHERS TO THE INDUSTRY AND, UH, PARTICULARLY WITH THE HEC RAZ MODELING, UH, SOFTWARE THAT, UM, UH, IS BEING USED. AND, UM, DAVE HIMSELF HAS, HE MANAGES THE SAN DIEGO OFFICE, BUT HE'S BEEN PERFORMING AND MANAGING THE HYDROLOGIC AND HYDRAULIC MODELING HERE IN PETALUMA FOR MANY YEARS. UM, PROBABLY A COUPLE DECADES OR MORE NOW, UH, AND WORKING CLOSELY WITH OUR STAFF, UH, AS, AS OUR, OUR, UM, FLOOD MODEL MAPPER AND, AND GURU, UH, AND HAS WORKED, UM, VERY CLOSELY WITH ME, UH, IN, IN MY TENURE HERE AS FLOODPLAIN ADMINISTRATOR. AND SO WITH THAT, UH, I'M GOING TO, UM, INTRODUCE, UH, SEBASTIAN SITTING NEXT TO ME, SE SEBASTIAN BIRCH IS HERE, UM, UH, WITH SHERWOOD DESIGN ENGINEERS AND, UM, UH, SEBASTIAN A AGAIN, SHERWOOD IS AN INTERNATIONAL, UH, FIRM. UH, THEY ACTUALLY HAVE AN OFFICE HERE IN PETALUMA. AND SEBASTIAN IS A FELLOW PETALUMA RESIDENT. UH, AND, UH, THEY PERFORM HYDROLOGY MODELING AND STORM WATER MANAGEMENT, UH, WATERSHED INFRASTRUCTURE PLANNING, AND, UH, HAVE RECENTLY DONE, UM, SOME MANY AND SIGNIFICANT SEA LEVEL RISE PROJECTS, UH, IN, IN MULTIPLE BAY AREA JURISDICTIONS. AND SEBASTIAN HAS BEEN OUR, HE'S BEEN OUR LOOK AHEAD GURU. HE'S, UH, SEBASTIAN AND SHERWOOD ENGINEERS HAVE BEEN THE ONES HELPING US WORK ON THE PREDICTIVE SEA LEVEL RISE PART OF THE MODEL, UH, AND, UH, HAVE BROUGHT GREAT EXPERTISE AND, UH, AND KNOWLEDGE TO THAT. SO WITH THAT, I'M GONNA TURN THIS OVER TO MR. BIRCH DY. GOOD EVENING. UM, REALLY EXCITED TO BE HERE. WE'RE, OUR OFFICE IS DOWN AT FOUNDRY WHARF FOR OUR NORTH BAY SERVICE. OUR SEA LEVEL RISE PRACTICE IS SPLIT BETWEEN MOSTLY SAN FRANCISCO AND NEW YORK OFFICES. UM, BUT I KIND OF PRETTY LUCKY I GET TO HEAD UP THE EFFORT HERE AND I LOOK OUT, MY WINDOW IS ABOUT 50 FEET FROM THE SLEW DOWN, UH, DOWN NEAR VAN BE. SO IT'S KIND OF A FUN TO BE INVOLVED LOCALLY COMPARED TO SOME OF OUR PROJECTS OUT ON THE EAST COAST THAT I DON'T GET TO VISIT THE WATER AS MUCH. SO, PETALUMA, WHERE DOES THIS WATER COME FROM? IT'S, WE'RE A PRETTY INTERESTING SPOT IN OUR RIVER, THE CITY HERE, FIRST OFF, WE'RE NOT A RIVER. WE'RE A TITLE SLEW. AND THAT REALLY HAS RAMIFICATIONS [00:30:01] FOR HOW WATER BEHAVES. UM, WHAT THAT MEANS IS THAT WATER IS MOVING THROUGH PETALUMA IN BOTH DIRECTIONS, RIGHT? RAIN MOVING DOWN, AND SOMETIMES OCEAN MOVING UP. SO WE'RE KIND OF USED TO SEEING THAT IN RAINFALL PATTERNS. AND HISTORICALLY WE'VE KIND OF THOUGHT ABOUT FLOODING IN PETALUMA MOSTLY AS A RAINFALL INDUCED PHENOMENA. BUT AS WE MOVE INTO CLIMATE CHANGE, WE START SEEING THIS, THIS WHAT WAS MORE OF A SIDE CONCERN, THESE, THESE KING TIDES THAT YEAH, THAT CAN CAUSE SOME ISSUES FOR US. THAT'S, THAT'S DEFINITELY TRUE. WE START SEEING AN, AN EVOLUTION OF THIS SECONDARY THREAT, THIS WATER COMING UP FROM THE BAY. SO THERE'S A LOT OF FACTORS. DON'T WORRY ABOUT READING THE TEXT HERE. THE POINT IS JUST THAT THERE'S A LOT OF FACTORS THAT AFFECT THE HEIGHT OF PETALUMA, THE RIVER OR CREEKS. UH, THESE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE RIVER WERE AFFECTED BOTH BY RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE AND TIDES. LUCKILY, ONE OF THE THINGS ON THIS, THIS IMAGE HERE, WAVE SWELL, WE'RE NOT AFFECTED BY CURRENTLY. THIS IS REALLY LUCKY. WE DON'T HAVE TO DEAL WITH THAT SWELL AND SURF THAT EROSIVE, UH, CAPABILITY THAT, UH, COMMUNITIES THAT ARE ACTUALLY DIRECTLY ON COAST OR ON BAY HAVE TO DEAL WITH. BUT THERE ARE STILL A LOT OF OTHER, UH, FACTORS HERE. SO AS RAIN IS, OH, SORRY. NO, SORRY. SO AS RAIN IS, UH, FALLING ON THE CITY AND SURROUNDING AREAS, IT'S GOTTA WORK ITS WAY THROUGH CREEKS TO THE RIVER, OUT TO THE BAY. UM, CAN FLOOD THINGS ALONG THE WAY. WE'VE GOT THOSE TIDES THAT CYCLE TWO TIMES A DAY. AND OUR HIGHEST TIDES ALREADY CAUSE SOME FLOODING RIGHT NOW. THOSE KING TIDES, THERE ARE OTHER SEASONAL FACTORS LIKE EL NINO THAT CAN RAISE OR LOWER THE RIVER FOR MONTHS AT A TIME, A STORM SURGE OFF THE COAST. SO ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS OFF THE COAST CAN RAISE THE LEVEL OF THE OCEAN OR IN THE BAY FOR DAYS OR EVEN WEEKS AT A TIME. AND THE BIG ONE HERE IS THAT WE KNOW SEA LEVELS RISING. SO THE WAY THAT THESE EVENTS INTERACT CAN INCREASE THE EXTENT OF FLOODING AND THE SEVERITY OF FLOODING. SO WE NEED TO CONSIDER WHICH OF THESE FACTORS ARE HAPPENING AT THE SAME TIME, AND WHICH OF THESE DON'T HAPPEN AT THE SAME TIME AND SHOULD BE CONSIDERED SEPARATELY. SO THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS TO CONSIDER. UH, SURPRISINGLY WE ARE GOING TO BE GOING THROUGH PRETTY MUCH ALL OF 'EM. SO I'M SORRY FOR ALL THE ACRONYMS AND THE TECHNICAL JARGON. UM, BUT WE WILL DO OUR BEST. SO TO SIMPLIFY THIS DOWN, WHAT ARE THE THREE CATEGORIES OF FLOOD HAZARD? UH, WE'RE BREAKING THIS UP AND PRETTY WHEREVER POSSIBLE, TRYING TO USE EXISTING INDUSTRY STANDARDS. ALTHOUGH ONE OF THE REALITIES IS, UH, PETALUMA IS ONE OF THE COMMUNITIES ON THE FOREFRONT OF TRYING TO FIGURE THIS OUT. TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW SEA LEVEL RISE IS GONNA AFFECT US AND HOW THESE OTHER CLIMATE FACTORS. SO THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE, BUT WE'RE STILL TOWARDS THE, TOWARDS THE FRONT OF THE PACK. THE THREE MAIN TYPES OF FLOODING ARE KING TIDES, RAINFALL EVENTS, AND STORM SURGE. SO KING TIDES ARE THOSE HIGHEST TIDES OF THE YEAR, HAPPEN A FEW TIMES A YEAR, EVEN IF THERE'S NO RAIN, RIGHT? THEY ARE GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN AND THEY'RE ALREADY A CONCERN. WE HAVE IMPACTS RAINFALL SIMILARLY, OKAY? IT HAPPENS EVERY YEAR MORE OR LESS. UM, BUT WHAT WE PLAN AROUND IS THOSE REALLY BIG EVENTS. UH, TYPICALLY IT'S THAT RAIN EVENT THAT ONLY HAS A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVERY YEAR. A LOT OF PEOPLE CALL THIS THE A HUNDRED YEAR RAIN EVENT. UM, THE, UH, THERE'S ANOTHER PEOPLE KNOW THAT WE PLAN AROUND THESE A HUNDRED YEAR RAINS. THIS A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE IDEA CAN IS SOMETIMES A NEW IDEA TO PEOPLE. BUT, UM, IT IS ACTUALLY SOMETHING WE CURRENTLY DEAL WITH AND CONSIDER. UH, SO WHAT IS THIS STORM SURGE? THAT'S AN EXTREME EVENT WHERE ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS LIKE AN EL NINO PACIFIC STORMS STRONG WINDS OFF THE COAST THAT CAN DRIVE WATER UP THE RIVER, THAT WATER CAN IMPACT THE CITY. IT'S BASED ON A TOTALLY DIFFERENT SET OF ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS THAN WHAT CAN MAKE A HUNDRED YEAR RAIN EVENT. AND IT'S ALMOST GUARANTEED THAT IT DOES NOT HAPPEN ON THE SAME DAY. THEY'RE TWO DIFFERENT ATMOSPHERIC PHENOMENA. THEY EACH HAVE THE SAME LIKELIHOOD OF HAPPENING THOUGH. SO IN EACH YEAR, THERE'S A 1% CHANCE YOU'LL GET A HUNDRED YEAR RAINFALL AND THERE'S A 1% CHANCE YOU'LL GET A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE. UM, A LOT OF PEOPLE DON'T KNOW THAT THEY'RE DIFFERENT THINGS. 'CAUSE THE FLOOD MAPS THAT WE ARE USED TO LOOKING AT ACTUALLY MERGE THEM TOGETHER INTO ONE BIG BLUE BLOB. SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT A FIRM MAP, A FEMA MAP OF PETALUMA, YOU'RE SEEING BOTH, UM, THEY JUST COLOR THEM THE SAME THING. SO THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS TELLS US HOW HIGH THAT A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO BE, UM, VERY CONVENIENT WHEN, UH, [00:35:01] WE GET A NUMBER LIKE THAT. BUT TO PREDICT HOW HIGH OR HOW INTENSE RAINFALL FLOODING MIGHT GET IN THE FUTURE, WE NEED TO CONSIDER A LOT OF VARIABLES. WE NEED SOFTWARE. AND THAT SOFTWARE IS CALLED A FLOOD MODEL. SO WHAT DOES THIS FLOOD MODEL DO? IT'S CONSIDERING FOUR MAIN FACTORS. WHAT IT DOES IS IT GENERATES AN ESTIMATE OF WHAT AREAS MAY FLOOD GIVING THIS INTERACTION OF ALL THESE DIFFERENT FACTORS. THE FOUR KEY FACTORS ARE THE SHAPE OF THE LAND IN OUR WATERSHED, UH, THE AMOUNT OF RAINFALL AND WHERE IT FALLS. AND YOU NEED TO KNOW HOW MUCH OF THAT RUNOFF, HOW, HOW MUCH OF THAT RAIN RUNS OFF AND HOW FAST THAT RUNOFF REACHES THE RIVER. YOU ALSO NEED TO KNOW THE HEIGHT OF THE RIVER THAT THIS RUNOFF TRYING TO MAKE IT TO THE OCEAN. HOW HIGH IS THAT RIVER? HOW MUCH HARDER IS IT FOR THE WATER TO GET OUT, UH, TO THE BAY? SO WE HAVE TO SELECT THE RIGHT SIZE RAIN EVENT, RIGHT? WE EXPERIENCE A LOT OF SMALL RAIN EVENTS EVERY YEAR AND LARGER RAIN EVENTS THAT ARE LESS COMMON. SO WE HAVE TO PICK THE RIGHT TYPE OF EVENT. THE COMMON STANDARD FOR FLOOD MODELING AND WHAT PETALUMA'S USED HISTORICALLY IS A RAIN EVENT THAT'S SO LARGE. IT HAS A, HIS, IT HISTORICALLY ONLY HAD A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVERY YEAR, RIGHT? THIS, THAT A HUNDRED YEAR RAIN EVENT. NOW YOU CAN GET RAIN EVENTS THAT ARE MORE INTENSE, RIGHT? UH, BUT THOSE HAVE LESS CHANCE OF HAPPENING. SO WE HAVE TO BALANCE THIS. WHAT IS THE APPROPRIATE AMOUNT OF LIKELIHOOD? HYUNDAI RAIN EVENT HAS BEEN THE STANDARD FOR THE CITY AND MANY IF NOT MOST COMMUNITIES. UM, DAVE WILL BE DESCRIBING HOW THE SOFTWARE FLOOD MODEL WAS CREATED, WHICH PREDICTS, OKAY, IN THAT RAIN EVENT, WHAT PARTS OF THE CITY, UH, HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO FLOOD RIGHT NOW. SO I'D LIKE TO HAND IT OVER TO DAVE. THANKS, SEBASTIAN. CAN YOU GUYS HEAR ME OKAY? YEAH, WE GOT YOU. ALL RIGHT. SO THIS SLIDE SAYS WE USE THE BEST MODEL. UM, THE CITY HAD PREVIOUSLY ADOPTED THE USE OF A MODEL CALLED XP STORM THAT GINA MENTIONED, AND THAT WAS AN EXCELLENT MODEL CHOICE 19 YEARS AGO AND POSSIBLY EVEN FIVE YEARS AGO. BUT RECENT ADVANCES IN HEC RAS NOW MAKE THAT THE MODEL OF CHOICE FOR PETALUMA. UH, HEC STANDS FOR HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER. THEY'RE LOCATED IN DAVIS, CALIFORNIA. AND RAS STANDS FOR RIVER ANALYSIS SYSTEM. SO HEC PRODUCES SOFTWARE FOR THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS, AND IT'S A FREE SOFTWARE. SO WE'RE ALSO USING FEATURES OF H-E-C-H-M-S, WHICH STANDS FOR THE HYDROLOGIC MODELING SYSTEM, UH, COUPLED TOGETHER WITH HEC RAS 2D FOR HYDRAULICS. UH, SO THIS GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATES SOME OF THE BASIC REASONS FOR MOVING TO THE HEC SOFTWARE. HEC RAS 2D DOES A BETTER JOB DEALING WITH THE FLOW THAT GETS OUT OF BANK INTO THE ADJACENT AREAS, WHICH WE CALL OVER BANKS. UH, THE HEC SOFTWARE WILL ALLOW US TO MODEL THE ENTIRE PETALUMA WATERSHED INSTEAD OF LIMITING OURSELVES TO THE CITY BOUNDARY. AND WHILE BOTH XP, STORM AND RAS ARE USED REGIONALLY, HEC RAS HAS A MUCH LARGER USER BASE AND IS THE GOLD STANDARD FOR HYDRAULIC MODELING, NOT ONLY IN THE UNITED STATES, BUT AROUND THE WORLD. AND IT'S FREE TO USE, UNLIKE XP STORM, WHICH WAS PROPRIETARY SOFTWARE AND VERY EXPENSIVE WITH AN ANNUAL, UH, MAINTENANCE FEE. UH, FINALLY, THE HCC SOFTWARE IS FULLY SUPPORTED BY THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS AT THE HYDROLOGIC ENGINEERING CENTER IN DAVIS. AND THERE ARE TEAMS BASICALLY DEDICATED TO IMPROVING THE SOFTWARE AND STANDING BEHIND THE PRODUCT. SO THIS SLIDE, UH, IS THAT THE MODEL WAS PRECISE AND PETALUMA FOCUSED. SO THIS GRAPHIC ILLUSTRATES THE MODELING PROCESS. WE'RE USING THAT BEST MODEL, HEC RAS 2D, COUPLED WITH HMS, AND WE'RE ALSO USING THE BEST AVAILABLE DATA SPECIFIC TO PETALUMA. UH, THIS INCLUDES THE SELECTION OF RAINFALL DATA, THE TERRAIN DATA, UH, WHICH IS THE GROUND SURFACE AND STRUCTURE DATA, THINGS LIKE BRIDGES AND WEIRS. UH, DURING THE MODELING PROCESS, WE GOT AS GRANULAR AS POSSIBLE. WE WALKED THE STREAMS TO DETERMINE THE ROUGHNESS VALUES, WHICH ARE HIGHER FOR HEAVY VEGETATION LIKE WILLOWS, AND VERY LOW FOR PAVED AREAS LIKE STREETS. AND WE ADDED HUNDREDS OF STREAMS AND BRIDGES. UH, I COULD SPEND PROBABLY THE WHOLE HOUR TALKING ABOUT THE LEVEL OF DETAIL IN THIS MODEL. UM, I LIKE TO QUOTE THIS BRITISH STATISTICIAN, GEORGE BOX. ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, BUT SOME ARE USEFUL. AND TO MAKE SURE THIS MODEL IS USEFUL, UH, THE MODEL WAS CHECKED REACH BY REACH FOR REASONABLENESS, AND COMPARED WITH AND CALIBRATED TO ACTUAL EVENTS THAT HAVE HAPPENED RECENTLY IN PETALUMA. THE THREE LARGEST EVENTS OF RECORD. AND THE POINT WE WANNA MAKE, MAKE SURE TO COMMUNICATE IS THAT THIS MODEL IS STATE-OF-THE-ART, [00:40:01] AND USEFUL FOR PLANNING DECISIONS. SO SOME OF YOU MIGHT WANT BE WONDERING, OKAY, WHAT IS HYDROLOGY VERSUS HYDRAULICS? HYDROLOGY IS THE PROCESS OF RAINFALL TO RUN OFF, HOW MUCH RAIN SOAKS INTO THE GROUND VERSUS FLOWING TOWARDS THE STREAMS AND RIVERS. AND THEN HYDRAULICS TELLS US HOW, HOW HIGH THOSE STREAMS AND RIVERS GET. IN THIS SLIDE, WE'RE SHOWING SOME KEY COMPONENTS OF THE FLOOD MODEL. I'M GONNA START IN THE LOWER RIGHT CORNER WITH RAIN, UH, RAINFALL. UH, WEST PERFORMED A CUSTOM RAINFALL STUDY USING DATA THROUGH 2023 TO DETERMINE HOW MUCH RAIN IS REASONABLE. THE A HUNDRED YEAR STORMED UP WHERE THAT RAIN FALLS IN THE WATERSHED. WE CALL THAT SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION, AND HOW QUICKLY IT FALLS OVER THE COURSE OF A 24 HOUR PERIOD. WE CALL THAT TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION. SO THOSE THREE PIECES TOGETHER ARE THEN ENTERED INTO THE MODEL. AND MOVING TO THE BOTTOM LEFT, WE HAVE HYDROLOGY AND HYDRAULICS. SO THE MODEL COMPONENTS INCLUDE THE GROUND SURFACE, TERRAIN, FIELD SURVEYS, LAND USES, VEGETATION LEVELS AND CREEKS, THESE SORTS OF THINGS. THEN MOVING DIAGONALLY TO THE TOP RIGHT MEAN HIGHER HIGH TIDE, THIS IS THE STARTING POINT OR BOUNDARY CONDITION FOR THE MODEL AT THE DOWNSTREAM END, AND REPRESENTS THE AVERAGE OF THE DAILY HIGHEST TIDE AND IS COMPUTED BY NOAH, UH, AT THE UPPER DRAW DRAWBRIDGE, UH, TIDE STATION. SO IN THE REMAINDER OF THIS PRESENTATION, WE'LL REFER TO THIS TIE, UH, TIDE LEVEL AS JUST HIGH TIDE, BUT KEEP IN MIND THAT IT IS REALLY THE AVERAGE OF THE HIGHEST DAILY TIDES, AND THIS VALUE IS EQUAL TO 6.35 FEET IN THE 1988 VERTICAL DATA. UM, THIS IS AN IMPORTANT, IMPORTANT DATA VALUE IN THE MODEL BECAUSE THE HIGHER TIDE LEVELS WE HAVE, THE MORE FLOODING THERE IS UPSTREAM WHEN WE ADD RAINFALL. AND SPEAKING OF THE HIGH TIDE LEVELS, ANOTHER IMPORTANT COMPONENT IS CONSIDERATION OF SEA LEVEL RISE. SO SEA LEVEL RISE WAS DETERMINED BASED ON THE CURRENT SCIENCE AND MUCH MORE ON THAT LATER IN THE PRESENTATION FROM SEBASTIAN. SO THIS SLIDE PROVIDES AN ILLUSTRATION OF THE ENTIRE PETALUMA WATERSHED AND THE 154 SUBBASINS THAT WERE UTILIZED. AND THIS JUST SPEAKS TO THE GRANULARITY OF THE MODELING. UH, THE SUBBASINS ARE COLOR CODED BY STREAM WITH ADOBE CREEK ON THE FAR RIGHT, AND THEN WASHINGTON CREEK, EAST WASHINGTON CREEK, CAPRI, CORONA, AND THEN THE UPPER WATERSHED WITH KELLY AND THOMPSON CREEKS ON THE SOUTH END. THE CITY BOUNDARY IS INCLUDED IN THIS GRAPHIC, AND YOU CAN SEE HOW LARGE OF AN AREA BEYOND THE CITY BOUNDARY IS PART OF THE WATERSHED. SO THE CITY BOUNDARY IS THAT RED LINE KIND OF IN THE MIDDLE. UH, THE UPPER WATERSHED PRODUCES NEARLY HALF OF THE FLOW IN THE PETALUMA RIVER. AND IN A HYDRAULIC HYDROLOGIC MODEL, A UNIQUE AMOUNT OF RAIN IS ENTERED INTO EACH ONE OF THESE 154 SUBBASINS. AND THE MODEL COMPUTES HOW MUCH WATER SINKS INTO THE GROUND AND HOW MUCH IS RUNOFF IN EACH ONE OF THOSE. AND THEN THE HYDRAULIC MODEL TAKES THOSE FLOWS FROM THERE. SO THE NEXT SLIDE IS HYDRAULICS. UH, SO THE, THE HYDRAULIC MODEL TAKES THAT RUNOFF AND COMPUTES HOW HIGH THE STREAMS AND RIVERS, UM, RISE. ALSO CONSIDERING THE TIDE LEVEL. SO THIS, THE HYDRAULIC MODEL INCLUDES THE VERY DETAILED DATA DESCRIBING THE GROUND ELEVATION, THE STRUCTURES SUCH AS CULVERTS AND BRIDGES, AND THE ROUGHNESS CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ENTIRE WATERSHED. THE GRAPHIC IN THE CENTER IS AN ACTUAL CLIP FROM THE MODEL SHOWING THE TERRAIN DATA IN THE BACKGROUND WITH THE GREEN AREAS, LOW GROUND, AND THE BROWN AREAS ARE HIGH GROUND AND SOME WATER, UH, IN THE RIVER IN BLUE. AND THE GRAPHIC IN THE LOWER RIGHT IS ILLUSTRATING, SORRY, THAT'S THE LOWER LEFT. IS ILLUSTRATING ONE OF THE BRIDGES INCLUDED IN THE MODEL. THIS IS A CROSS SECTION VIEW AND JUST ILLUSTRATES THE BRIDGE DECK CONFIGURATION AND PEER DIMENSIONS FOR THAT SPECIFIC BRIDGE, JUST SO YOU GET A FEEL FOR WHAT'S ACTUALLY IN THE MODEL AND TO DESCRIBE HOW THE MODEL WAS CONFIGURED TO ACCOUNT FOR FUTURE CHANGES. I'M GONNA GO AHEAD AND PASS IT BACK TO SEBASTIAN. THANKS, DAVID. SO, UH, HISTORICALLY MOST CITIES, PETALUMA INCLUDED, HAVE PLANNED AROUND THE CURRENT RISK FROM FLOODS. UM, PETALUMA WANTS THE GENERAL PLAN TO GUIDE THE CITY TO BE RESILIENT, NOT JUST TO FLOODS NOW, BUT FLOODS IN THE FUTURE. AND THERE'S A LOT OF FACTORS THAT MIGHT CHANGE IN THE FUTURE THAT AFFECT THESE FLOOD HAZARDS. SOME OF THOSE CONCERNS, RAINFALL, STORM SURGE, GETTING MORE INTENSE. UH, SOME OF THESE FACTORS, THEY'RE NOT SUFFICIENTLY UNDERSTOOD YET, OR THEY DON'T HAVE ENOUGH REGIONAL PRECEDENTS OR STATE POLICY [00:45:01] GUIDANCE TO CURRENTLY UTILIZE RELIABLY, WHEREAS OTHER FACTORS ARE WELL DOCUMENTED ENOUGH THAT YOU CAN MAKE REASONABLE, UM, YOU CAN REASONABLY INTERPRET THEM AND PUT THEM INTO THE MODEL. UM, SO FOR EXAMPLE, UH, OR ONE FACTOR WOULD BE, UH, HOW WHAT IF OVER THE NEXT DECADES WE SEE AN INCREASE IN HOW MUCH OF THE LAND WITHIN THE CITY IS COVERED IN PAVEMENT AND BUILDINGS, RIGHT? MORE IMPERVIOUS COVER. SO WE, THE MODEL LETS US EXPERIMENT WITH THINGS LIKE THAT. WE RAN IT SOME ESTIMATES INTO THE MODEL, AND IT PROVED THAT, UH, DURING THE A HUNDRED YEAR FLOOD, CHANGING THAT AMOUNT OF IMPERVIOUS COVER IN THE CITY DIDN'T ACTUALLY HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE FLOODS, WHICH WAS SURPRISING AT FIRST. UM, BECAUSE WE ALL, WE KNOW IMPERVIOUS COVER HAS A LOT OF SERIOUS IMPACTS. UM, SO, BUT WHAT THE MODEL IS SAYING IS THAT IT PROVED TO NOT BE VERY IMPACTFUL DURING THE A HUNDRED YEAR FLOOD. AND HAPPY TO EXPLORE THAT MORE DURING, UH, QUESTION AND ANSWER. IT WAS, YOU KNOW, IMPERVIOUS COVER IS VERY IMPORTANT FOR CERTAIN THINGS, CRITICAL FOR RUNOFF QUALITY. BUT, UH, THE MODEL IS SAYING THAT THE RAINFALL THAT FLOODS OUR CITY DOESN'T ACTUALLY COME FROM THE RAIN THAT LANDS IN THE CITY. IT'S COMES FROM THE RAIN THAT LANDS OUTSIDE THE CITY. AND SO THE, THOSE EFFECTS OF IMPERVIOUS COVER IN THE CITY DIDN'T HAVE AS MUCH IMPACT. IT WAS ANOTHER, A THING THAT THE MODEL COULD TEACH US. SO ONE OF THE BIG THINGS WE DO HAVE, AND THE ONE OF THE CRITICAL FACTORS THAT WAS KIND OF ISOLATED EARLY DURING THE SEA LEVEL, WHITE, UH, SILVER RISE WHITE PAPER CAME OUT EARLY IN THE GENERAL PLAN PROCESS WAS WE DON'T HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING, DIDN'T HAVE AN UNDERSTANDING OF HOW SEA LEVEL RISE, UH, IMPACTS FLOODS DURING RAIN. WE HAD MAPS OF SEA LEVEL RISE. THEY WERE OKAY, WE HAD REALLY GOOD MAPS OF RAIN, BUT WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY THAT LOOKED AT THE TWO OF THEM TOGETHER. WHAT DOES A RAIN EVENT LOOK LIKE IN 50 YEARS OR 80 YEARS WHEN SEA LEVEL RISE IS HIGHER? AND THAT REALLY WAS THE IMPETUS FOR, UH, DEVELOPING THIS MODEL THAT CONSIDERS SEA LEVEL RISE. SO THE MAIN SOURCE OF GUIDANCE FOR HOW DO WE CONSIDER SLR IS A DOCUMENT, UH, FROM CALIFORNIA. IT'S FROM THE OCEAN PROTECTION COUNCIL, WHICH IS REALLY A, A A A MIX OF A LOT OF STATE AGENCIES AND RESEARCH INSTITUTIONS. IT PROVIDES A REALLY WELL RESEARCHED AND NUANCED PROCESS TO GUIDE SEA LEVEL RISE PLANNING. AND A LOT OF CITIES AND AGENCIES WERE ALREADY USING IT, UH, INCLUDING A LOT WITHIN THE BAY AREA, INCLUDING BCDC AND OTHERS. UM, SO SEA LEVEL RISE PREDICTIONS WERE KNOWN FROM PREVIOUS EFFORTS TO HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON THE CITY. UM, AND WHAT THIS DID, WHAT THIS DOCUMENT DOES IS GIVE US, UH, SOME GUIDANCE AS TO, OKAY, WHAT SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO IS APPROPRIATE FOR WHAT YOU'RE TRYING TO PLAN FOR. WHAT WE'RE LOOKING AT IS CALIFORNIA OCEAN PROTECTION COUNCIL O UH, 2018. WE CALL IT OPC 2018. SO IT PUBLISHES NOT JUST HOW MUCH SEA LEVEL RISE MAY HAPPEN IN DIFFERENT YEARS, BUT HOW LIKELY THOSE AMOUNTS ARE TO HAPPEN, THE PROBABILITIES OF THOSE. THIS LETS US SELECT A HIGH LEVEL OF SEA LEVEL FOR, FOR PROJECTS THAT ARE REALLY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING AND MAYBE LETS YOU PICK A LOWER LEVEL OF SEA LEVEL RISE FOR A PROJECT THAT'S NOT VERY VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. THE GUIDANCE ALSO LETS US SELECT SEA LEVEL RISE PREDICTIONS FOR MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY AND END OF THE CENTURY THAT YES, THE GENERAL PLAN COVERS MAYBE A 20 YEAR SWATH, BUT THE THINGS THAT WILL BE BUILT UNDER THIS GENERAL PLAN WILL SURELY LAST, UH, DECADES IF NOT INTO THE NEXT CENTURY. WE'RE GONNA START WITH OUR GRAPHS. I APOLOGIZE, I REALLY LIKE GRAPHS. UM, SO A KEY ASSUMPTION. LET'S TALK ABOUT SOME ASSUMPTIONS THAT WERE MADE. UH, ONE OF THE THINGS WE HAVE TO DEAL WITH, THERE ARE A LOT OF DIFFERENT SEA LEVEL RISE PREDICTIONS. IT GOES FROM VERY LOW TO VERY HIGH, WHICH ONE IS APPROPRIATE FOR US? SO ONE OF THE KEY ASSUMPTIONS, PARTLY INFORMED BY COMMUNITY INPUT AND SOME OF THE VALUES THAT CAME OUT OF THE CAC, ARE THAT WE NEED TO TAKE THESE CLIMATE THREATS SERIOUSLY. SO EVERY SEA LEVEL RISE PREDICTION YOU'RE SEEING TONIGHT, ASSUME THAT GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS DO NOT SIGNIFICANTLY DROP IN THE FUTURE. IN FACT, THEY CONTINUE TO RISE FOR DECADES TO COME. THIS IS THE RCP 8.5, UH, FOR N VIEW GEEKS WHO GO INTO THE IPCC REPORTS. UM, WE ARE ASSUMING THIS WORST CASE SCENARIO OF CONTINUED EMISSIONS. UM, AND THAT'S ALSO IN ALIGNMENT WITH STATE GUIDANCE, WHICH SAYS THAT IS THE CURRENT TRAJECTORY THAT WE'RE ON. AND SO THAT'S WHAT WE'RE FOLLOWING. SO OF COURSE, PETALUMA MAKING A LOT OF EFFORT TO DECREASE EMISSIONS, BUT WE DON'T WANNA BE OPTIMISTIC ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE IN THIS SENSE. WE WANNA BE PREPARED FOR THOSE BAD OUTCOMES. SO RATHER THAN USE THESE BLUE [00:50:01] AREAS ON THE, ON THE GRAPH HERE ON THE RIGHT, WHICH WOULD BE OPTIMISTIC PROJECTIONS THAT RELY ON SIGNIFICANT CUTS TO EMISSIONS OVER THE COMING DECADES, WE'RE FOLLOWING THE GUIDANCE THAT SAID, USE THE HIGHER PROJECTIONS, THE RED AREA, WHICH PREDICTS CONTINUED HIGH EMISSIONS. SO WE PICKED FROM THAT TWO SLR PREDICTIONS WERE SELECTED TO MODEL ONE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY AND ONE FOR HOW BAD IT MIGHT BE IN THE END OF THE CENTURY. ALRIGHT, SO WE'RE GONNA LOOK AT THIS GRAPH A COUPLE TIMES. LET'S WALK THROUGH IT. UM, FIRST OFF, SINCE WE'VE, FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY, WE HAVE VERY LITTLE TIME TO PREPARE FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY. SO WE USED THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF SEA LEVEL RISE THAT THE STATE PROVIDED A PROBABILITY FOR, RIGHT? THIS WAS THE TOP OF THEIR CHART THAT HAD A PROBABILITY ASSOCIATED. SO THAT'S A 1.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE AS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF HAPPENING BY THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY. BY VERY LOW, ITS 0.5 CHANCE THAT IT, IT WILL BE THIS BAD. SO TO READ THIS, IF YOU LOOK AT THE BLUE COLUMN, START ALL THE WAY AT THE BOTTOM, AT THE BOTTOM HERE, THERE'S A VERY, UH, HIGH LIKELIHOOD, RIGHT? WE SEE 0.6 FEET OF SLR BY MID-CENTURY AND 83% CHANCE THAT WILL HAVE THAT MUCH BY THE YEAR 2050. UH, THEN AS WE MOVE UP, THERE'S A 50% CHANCE OF 0.9 FEET. KEEP MOVING UP. THERE'S A 17% CHANCE THAT WE'LL SEE 1.1 FEET OF SEAL OF RISE BY MID-CENTURY. THIS IS THE MAXIMUM AMOUNT THAT THE STATE THINKS IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN. ANYTHING ABOVE THAT BECOMES LESS LIKELY. SO TO PROVIDE EXTRA SAFETY, WE DIDN'T WANT TO PICK THAT 1.1. WE WANTED TO SELECT AN EVEN HIGHER AMOUNT OF, UH, OF SEA LEVEL RISE. SO WHAT WAS SELECTED WAS 1.9 FEET HAS A VERY LOW PROBABILITY OF HAPPENING ONLY A 0.5 CHANCE BY MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY. THAT'S THE STARTING POINT FOR OUR PLANNING FOR SEA LEVEL RISE. BUT THAT'S NOT ENOUGH. THAT ONLY BRINGS US TO 2050. WE HAVE TO LOOK TO END OF THE CENTURY AS WELL. SO FOR END OF THE CENTURY, YOU SEE SOMETHING INTERESTING THAT IN THAT BLUE AT NEXT TO THAT BLUE COLUMN, THE ELEVATIONS, THEY CHANGE, RIGHT? UM, AGAIN, WE'RE ASSUMING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO STAY HIGH. UH, THEN LOOK TO THE BOTTOM OF THE BLUE CHART. THERE'S A 96% CHANCE THAT WILL HAVE ONE FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE. AS WE MOVE UP THAT CHART, THERE'S LESS CHANCE THAT WE'LL GET 2.5. IT'S ONLY A 50% CHANCE. AND THEN WE MOVE UP A BIT MORE. 3.4 FEET OF SLR IS THE AMOUNT THAT WAS SELECTED TO GUIDE MOST ASPECTS OF THE GENERAL PLAN UPDATE. IT HAS A 17% CHANCE OF BEING THIS BAD BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. THIS IS THAT 3.4 FEET IS THE HIGHEST AMOUNT OF SLR THAT THE OPC CALCULATES IS LIKELY TO HAPPEN BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. NOW THERE'S ONE MORE FACTOR TO CONSIDER IS FOR CERTAIN USES THAT 17% CHANCE THAT MIGHT BE TOO OPTIMISTIC EVEN WE MIGHT NEED TO GET EVEN, UH, A LITTLE BIT MORE PESSIMISTIC ABOUT HOW BAD IT MIGHT BE. SO FOR CERTAIN THINGS, WE ACTUALLY WANT AN EVEN HIGHER NUMBER FOR THE END OF CENTURY, YOU'RE GONNA SEE THAT. UH, AGAIN, ASSUMING GREENHOUSE ACIDS EMISSIONS CONTINUE TO STAY HIGH, THE STATE THINKS THERE'S A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE'LL SEE 6.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. THEY THINK THERE'S A 0.5% CHANCE THAT IT'LL BE THIS BAD. THAT'S THE AMOUNT OF SLR THAT'S BEING USED TO GUIDE CERTAIN CITY EFFORTS. THINK CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, PUBLIC SAFETY FACILITIES. SO WITH THOSE THREE, WE END UP WITH THREE DIFFERENT SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS THAT WE CAN PLUG IN TO THE FLOOD MAP. FOR CERTAIN THINGS LIKE KING TIDE AND STORM SURGE, IT'S GONNA BE PRETTY EASY TO FACTOR IN. UH, HOW MUCH WORSE DO THOSE GET WITH SEA LEVEL RISE? UH, WE CAN BASICALLY ADD 'EM TOGETHER. BUT FOR CONSIDERING HOW SEA LEVEL RISE AFFECTS RAINFALL, IT'S GONNA BE A LITTLE BIT MORE COMPLICATED AND THAT'S WHAT THAT FLOOD MODEL IS GONNA HELP US WITH. SO LET'S START SIMPLE WITH THE KING TIDE AND THE STORM SURGE. SO WE'RE PAUSING RAIN. DON'T THINK ABOUT RAIN RIGHT NOW. THINK THIS CAN HAPPEN ON A BLUE SKY DAY, UH, WITHOUT ANY RAIN FALLING ON THE CITY, A KING TIDE OR A STORM SURGE, IT'LL PROBABLY BE GRAYS SKIES DURING THE STORM SURGE. SO LIKE WAS MENTIONED BEFORE, THESE CAN HAPPEN WITHOUT RAINFALL AND WE CAN CONSIDER THEM INDEPENDENT OF RAINFALL, AN INDEPENDENT OF THE FLOOD MODEL THAT DAVE WAS [00:55:01] DESCRIBING AND THAT WE'LL BE LOOKING AT, UH, AGAIN LATER. FOR THESE, IT'S PRETTY EASY TO PREDICT HOW SEA LEVEL RISE MAKES THEM WORSE. SO LET'S START ON THE LEFT KING TIDE. WHAT WE CAN DO IS TAKE THAT DARK BLUE KING TIDE WATER LEVEL. HOW HIGH DOES THE KING TIDE GET RIGHT NOW? AND WE CAN JUST ADD OUR SEA LEVEL RISE PREDICTION TO IT. UH, IF YOU WANT TO GET DIRTY, DIRECT INTERPOLATION IS THE, IS THE PHRASE, UM, THAT TOTAL WATER LEVEL, THE TWO OF THOSE TOGETHER, THAT'S WHAT OUR KING TIDE LEVEL LOOKS LIKE. IF WE HAVE 1.9 FEET, A SEA LEVEL RISE. AND WE CAN DO THAT FOR EACH OF OUR THREE DIFFERENT, UH, SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS. SO WE WOULD THEN TAKE THAT LEVEL AND LOOK AT, OKAY, WHAT PARTS OF THE CITY ARE LOWER THAN THAT WATER LEVEL AND WE ASSUME THEY FLOOD. NOW THAT, THAT'S A COUPLE ASSUMPTIONS, WE'LL, WE'LL WE'LL TALK ABOUT LATER SOME, SOME ISSUES WITH THOSE ASSUMPTIONS. BUT THAT'S THE, THAT'S THE STARTING POINT. SIMILARLY, OVER ON THE RIGHT FOR THAT A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE, WE TAKE THE CURRENT LEVEL OF THAT A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE. THE ARMY CORPS GIVES, UH, THAT TO US. AND THEN WE CAN ADD OUR SEA LEVEL RISE PREDICTION TO IT. AND THAT'S WHAT WE THINK THAT STORM SURGE LOOKS LIKE WHEN WE HAVE 1.9 FEET OF, OF SEA LEVEL RISE. NOW REMEMBER THAT A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE, IT HAS A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING EVERY YEAR, RIGHT? IT'S THE A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE, BUT THE KING TIDE IS GUARANTEED TO HAPPEN EVERY YEAR. IN FACT, WE GET TWO OR THREE OF THEM EVERY YEAR. SO WE NEED TO START THINKING, YOU THINK OF THOSE MAPS IN DIFFERENT WAYS. NEXT UP NOW RAINFALL. SO UNLIKE WITH KING TIDE, UNLIKE WITH STORM SURGE, WHICH ARE MAPPED INDEPENDENT OF RAINFALL, SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS RAINFALL, FLOODS IN A MUCH MORE COMPLICATED WAY. IF THE RIVER IS HIGHER 'CAUSE OF SLR, THE RAIN HAS A HARDER TIME FLOWING OUT TO THE BAY. SO MORE AREAS GET FLOODED. AGREE, I THINK WE AGREE ON THAT ONE. UH, SO TO CONSIDER RAINFALL, WE NEED TO USE THE NEW FLOOD MODEL, UH, FOR UNDERSTANDING THE STORM RIGHT NOW. UH, THE MODEL ASSUMES THE RIVER. SO TO UNDERSTAND, YOU KNOW, THE RAINFALL FLOODING RIGHT NOW, THE MODEL ASSUMES THAT THE RIVER'S AT HIGH TIDE DURING A RAIN EVENT. SO FOR THE FUTURE WE COULD TAKE THAT ASSUMPTION, THE CURRENT HIGH TIDE AND WE COULD MOVE IT UP BY THE SEA LEVEL RISE AMOUNT. UM, AND THEN WE RUN THE MODEL AGAIN. WE SEE WE THROW ANOTHER A HUNDRED YEAR RAIN EVENT AT IT AND WE SEE HOW MUCH HARDER IT IS FOR THE WATER TO GET THROUGH THE CREEKS AND THE RIVERS AND DRAIN OUT TO THE BAY. SO WHAT DO WE MAP? UH, JADA'S GONNA BE SHOWING THE MAPS AFTER WE ANSWER SOME QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MODEL PROCESS, DON'T WORRY. WE'LL HAVE ANOTHER Q AND A ABOUT THE MAPS THEMSELVES. UH, HERE'S A LIST OF WHAT WE'RE ABOUT TO LOOK AT. SO FIRST, UH, THERE'S TWO MAPS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE CENTURY, WHICH USE A VERY LOW PROBABILITY SEA LEVEL RISE OF 1.9 FEET. THERE'S TUBE APPS 'CAUSE WE GOT ONE OF THE RAINFALL WITH STORM RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE SHOWN ON THE SAME MAP AND ONE OF THE KING TIDES. UH, THEN WE'LL HAVE THE SAME TWO KINDS OF APPS FOR END TO THE CENTURY USING 3.4 FEET AND THE SAME TWO KINDS OF MAPS SHOWING 6.9 FEET. SO AT THIS POINT, UH, WE'D LIKE TO ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT THE MODELING PROCESS AND I GOT, I'D LIKE TO APOLOGIZE FOR BEING SO CONGESTED. OKAY, UH, LET'S BEGIN. WHO HAS, UH, QUESTIONS SPECIFICALLY FOR THE MODELING PROCESS? FEEL FREE TO RAISE YOUR HANDS DARREN. THANK YOU FOR THAT PRESENTATION. YOU FOUGHT THROUGH CONGESTION, NOBLY AND JUST LEFT THE ROOM. UH, SO ON THE MODELING, UM, I HAVE A COUPLE QUESTIONS HERE. ADDRESSING THE UPPER WATERSHED AREA SEEMED LIKE THE OBVIOUS DATA GAP. HOW MUCH DOES THAT AFFECT OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE MODELS? 'CAUSE THEY TALKED ABOUT SOME AREAS, I MEAN, I WOULD GUESS IT WOULD MAKE US UNDERESTIMATE, BUT HOW DOES THAT IMPACT OUR MODELS AND OUR CONFIDENCE LEVEL? I'D IMAGINE NOT TOO MUCH 'CAUSE WE'RE STILL MOVING FORWARD, BUT WELL, HAVING THE DATA, UH, HAVING MORE DATA FROM THE WATERSHED ABSOLUTELY INCREASES OUR CONFIDENCE IN THE MODEL AND, UM, AND HOW IT IMPACTS IT. I THINK I'D, I'D LIKE TO, UH, ASK DAVE, UH, IF HE WANTS TO, UM, PROVIDE A, UH, A MORE TECHNICAL RESPONSE TO SURE. TO THAT I COULD JUST COMPARE, YOU KNOW, WITH THE XP STORM MODEL, WE DIDN'T HAVE GREAT TOPO IN THE UPPER WATERSHED. WE THOUGHT ABOUT OBTAINING TOPO DURING THAT PROCESS AND IT WAS REALLY COST PROHIBITIVE. BUT YEAH, THIS TIME, YOU KNOW, WE HAVE THE LIDAR COVERING THE WHOLE LIDAR SHED. WE ACTUALLY, UH, HAVE BEEN WORKING CLOSELY WITH, UM, SONOMA COUNTY WATER AND THE MODELING THAT THEY'RE DOING. UM, WE STARTED ACTUALLY WITH A VERSION OF THEIR MODEL AND UM, SORT OF, UH, DID [01:00:01] SOME FIXES AND SOME UPDATES AND TWEAKS TO MAKE IT EVEN BETTER. SO, AND IT HAD TO DO TOO WITH AN OLDER VERSION OF RAS THAT THEY WERE USING, UM, UPGRADING TO THE CURRENT VERSION, THINGS WERE A LOT EASIER AND WE COULD DO THEM DIFFERENTLY AND, UH, MORE CLEANLY. UM, BUT YEAH, WE, WE HAVE GOOD CONFIDENCE THAT THE MODEL IN THE UPPER WATERSHED IS NOW DOING A GREAT JOB. FANTASTIC. AND THEN ONE OTHER THING YOU READ WITH, UH, SEA LEVEL RISE ASIDE FROM JUST FLOODING IS IMPACTS ON GROUNDWATER. WAS THAT ASSESSED, UM, IN THE STUDY AND I SAW MENTION OF PETALUMA VALLEY GROUNDWATER STUDY, OBVIOUSLY THE GSA IS DOING A GROUNDWATER SUSTAINABILITY PLAN. ARE THEY GONNA USE OUR MODELS OR HOW DO WE ASSESS IMPACTS, POTENTIAL IMPACTS ON GROUNDWATER? SO THE CURRENT MODEL DOESN'T LOOK INTO GROUND IMPACTS TO GROUNDWATER. UM, THE, THE CONCERN HERE IS AS OCEAN LEVELS RISE, IT FORCES SALT WATER INTO THE AQUIFER. SO YOU CAN START HAVING SALINE INTRUSION MOVING UP THE RIVER. AND THAT'S A REALLY KNOWN ISSUE IN SONOMA VALLEY. MM-HMM. . UM, IT'S A BIG PROJECT FOR SONOMA WATER. UM, I'M ON THE GSA ADVISORY, UH, HERE IN PETALUMA. AND SO THIS HAS, THIS COMES UP, IT'S REALLY MORE OF A PROCESS FOR, UH, THE HYDROGEOLOGICAL MODEL THAT SONOMA WATER THAT WELL, THAT THE GSA IS DEVELOPING, UM, THE EFFECT OF THE FUTURE OF SALINE INTRUSION DUE TO SEA LEVEL RISE. IT'S NOT PART OF THIS MODEL, BUT THERE IS COORDINATION BETWEEN THOSE GROUPS. OKAY. THAT, THAT GETS TO ANOTHER QUESTION I HAD THAT'S A LITTLE TOUGHER TO PUT IN ONE QUESTION, BUT WE HAVE SO MANY OF THESE DIFFERENT PLANS RELATED TO SEA LEVEL RISE, WATER MANAGEMENT, GROUNDWATER MANAGEMENT. I WAS NOTICING IN ONE AREA IT WAS TALKING ABOUT, YOU KNOW, THE RIVER MARSH ENHANCEMENT PLAN, RIVER ACCESS AND ENHANCEMENT DEMONSTRATION MARCH MARSH AND EFFLUENT MANAGEMENT PLAN. I MEAN, IS THIS DOCUMENT I WOULD JUST, FROM READING, IT'S NOT REALLY AN ATTEMPT TO HARMONIZE ALL OF THAT NECESSARILY. DOES IT SUPERSEDE GUIDANCE? IS THERE A OR DO WE HAVE TO BE FAMILIAR WITH KIND OF ELEMENTS OF ALL OF THESE DOCUMENTS TO MAKE SOME OF THESE LAND USE DECISIONS? UM, I THINKING THROUGH THE LIST THAT YOU JUST RATTLED OFF, SOME OF THOSE ARE GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS, SOME OF THOSE ARE PLANNING DOCUMENTS. THERE'S, THERE'S A HANDFUL OF THINGS THERE. UM, UH, AND, UM, TO THE EXTENT THAT OUR, OUR WORK EFFORT IS, UM, APPRISED OF ALL OF THOSE DOCUMENTS, UM, FOR INSTANCE, RIVER ACCESS ENHANCEMENT PLAN, UM, ISN'T DIRECTLY AFFECTING THE WORK WE'RE DOING WITH THIS MODEL. HOWEVER, THE OUTCOME OF THE WORK WITH THIS MODEL AND THE POLICIES DOWN THE ROAD AND THE LAND USE DOWN THE ROAD MIGHT, UH, INFORM UPDATES TO THE RIVER ACCESS ENHANCEMENT PLAN. UM, SO THAT'S A FOR INSTANCE. UM, AND DID, WERE THERE ANY GUIDANCE DOCUMENTS THAT, THAT WE HEARD IN THAT LIST THAT, THAT, THAT AFFECT THE DECISIONS MADE TO MAKE THIS FLOOD MODEL? IS THAT THE QUESTION? YEAH. AND WHEN WE MAKE LAND USE DECISIONS, YOU KNOW, WILL WE JUST BE REFERENCING THIS MODEL? WILL WE HAVE TO REFERENCE ALL OF THESE MODELS? I I GUESS BOTH IN THE GENERAL PLAN CONTEXT AND THEN ON A PROJECT BY PROJECT BASIS. WILL THIS BE KIND OF THE GO-TO INFORMATION ABOUT THESE TOPICS? OR LIKE I SAID, WILL WE HAVE TO GENERALLY TOUCH ON THIS WILL BE THE GO. ULTIMATELY THESE MAPS WILL BE THE GO-TOS FOR, FOR FLOODPLAIN UM, EFFECTS. SO, UM, THE, THE POLICIES AND THE GUIDANCE THAT WE'RE, THAT WE'LL BE LOOKING AT AS THIS PROCESS MOVES FORWARD, UM, WILL WE'LL BE UTILIZING THESE MAPS EXACTLY HOW WE'LL BE TALKING ABOUT NEXT , BUT, OKAY. GOT IT. UM, UH, AND, AND MANY OF THE OTHER DOCUMENTS YOU LISTED ALSO WILL BE DOCUMENTS THAT, UM, WILL BE CALLED UPON IN HELPING OUR PLANNERS REVIEW PROJECTS AND ASSESS, UH, APPLICATIONS, UH, EACH IN THEIR, EACH IN THEIR OWN RIGHT. AND HEATHER, DO YOU WANNA ELABORATE? YEAH. UM, SO YOU'RE KIND OF GETTING, YOU KNOW, STARTING TO GO INTO THE POLICY FRAMEWORKS A LITTLE BIT. LIKE WHAT DO WE DO WITH THIS DATA? RIGHT? YEAH. UM, AND LIKE I BELIEVE THERE IS IN THE DRAFT POLICY FRAMEWORKS THAT WE'VE BEEN REVIEWING, IS LIKE AN UPDATE TO THE RIVER ACCESS AND ENHANCEMENT PLAN TO MAKE SURE THAT THOSE KIND OF THINGS ARE ALIGNED. THERE ARE, THERE WILL BE SOME GUIDANCE IN TERMS OF NEW ZONING REGULATIONS IN DIFFERENT FLOOD AREAS, SO THEY ARE GONNA BE INFORMING THE NEXT PHASE, BUT IT'S KIND OF, YOU'RE, YOU'RE A TINY BIT PREMATURE, BUT THOSE ARE THINGS THAT ARE ON THE RADAR. NO, LET'S BOOKMARK THAT AND THEN I'LL HAVE TWO OTHERS JUST ABOUT THE MODELING. YOU KNOW, I READ IN THERE ABOUT THE STREAM GAUGES WE HAD TO USE AND MONITOR AND RECORD WATER LEVELS IN DEVELOPING THESE MODELS. IS THAT SOMETHING THAT'S PLANNED TO BE [01:05:01] ONGOING? AND THEN WITH THAT, YOU KNOW, HOW OFTEN WILL THESE MODELS BE UPDATED? DAVE, IF YOU WANNA TAKE STREAM GAUGE SURE THING. YEAH. THE STREAM GAUGE, STREAM GAUGE DATA, UH, YOU KNOW, YOU HAVE TO USE THE HISTORIC DATA SET. AND SO, UM, AND THE IDEA IS TO CONTINUE, UH, MEASURING THE STREAM LEVELS, UH, WITH THE GAUGES SO THAT IN THE FUTURE, IF THERE IS A NEED TO COME IN AND UPDATE THE MODEL, YOU KNOW, THERE IT'LL BE THERE. BUT WITH THE CALIBRATED MODEL, THERE ISN'T NECESSARILY A NEED TO CONSTANTLY REVISIT IT. UM, YOU KNOW, THE, THE MODEL THAT WE DID PREVIOUSLY, IT WAS BASED MAINLY ON EVENTS THREE, 2005, AND WE'VE BEEN USING THAT THIS WHOLE TIME. AND SO, UH, JUST GOES TO SAY, I MEAN, IF YOU WANTED TO UPDATE IT OFTEN, IT WOULD JUST BE SUPER EXPENSIVE, UH, TO GO AND RECALIBRATE THE MODEL EVERY FEW YEARS OR SOMETHING. BUT IF THERE ARE BIG CHANGES, UH, YOU'RE CERTAINLY ABLE TO DO THAT. OKAY, GREAT. WELL, I THINK EVERYTHING ELSE IS POLICY, SO I'M GOOD. THANKS. A COUPLE COUPLE OF FOLLOW UP, UM, FOR YOU, DAVE. CAN, UH, YOU MENTIONED LIDAR. DO YOU, DO YOU WANNA PROVIDE AN EXPLANATION? YOU TALKED ABOUT THE LIDAR SURVEYS IN THE WATERSHED, AND YOU COULD EXPLAIN WHAT, WHAT THAT ACRONYM IS AND WHY WE USE THAT. AND, AND, UM, UH, AND THEN I JUST ALSO WANNA POINT OUT THAT OUR STREAM GAUGES ARE LIVE ONLINE, AND YOU CAN LOOK AT 'EM ANYTIME, EACH AND EVERY ONE OF 'EM. UM, AND, UH, SO THERE'S A STREAM GAUGE, UH, LINK IN THE CITY WEBSITE AND, UH, THERE'S ACTUALLY A COUPLE OF THEM. YOU CAN ACTUALLY LOOK AT 'EM ON NOAH TOO. SO, UH, NOAH, UH, GRABS OUR DATA FROM OUR STREAM GAUGES, AND YOU CAN GO TO THEIR WEBSITE AND ALSO LOOK AT OUR STREAM LEVELS, UH, AND DURING, UH, FLOOD EVENTS OR HEAVY RAIN EVENTS WHERE WE'RE ANTICIPATING FLOODING. UM, THOSE GAUGES ARE INVALUABLE SOURCES OF DATA THAT OUR STAFF, OUR PUBLIC WORK STAFF IS, IS ABSOLUTELY ZEROED IN ON THE WHOLE TIME. I HAVE 'EM ON BOTH OF MY PHONES, I HAVE, YOU KNOW, WE'RE CONSTANTLY CHECKING THOSE BECAUSE WE KNOW WHICH, UH, HISTORICALLY, ANECDOTALLY WE UNDERSTAND WHEN WE SEE, FOR INSTANCE, THE PEN GROVE, UH, STREAM GAUGE HIT A CERTAIN LEVEL AND IT, WHEN IT GOES OVER, WE KNOW PRETTY CLOSE WHAT THE TIMING IS BEFORE WE SEE THE IMPACTS DOWN DOWNSTREAM. SO THOSE GAUGES ARE FASCINATING, GREAT TO WATCH. THEY'RE CONSTANTLY TAKING IN DATA AND IT'S, AND IT'S PUBLIC, SO, UM, THAT, THAT'S A COOL THING. AND DAVE, YOU JUST WANNA HIT ON LIGHT LIDAR FOR US REAL QUICK? YEAH, JUST REAL BRIEFLY. IT'S JUST A, IT'S A METHOD OF GATHERING TOPOGRAPHY DATA. MM-HMM. , UM, I THINK IT STANDS FOR LIKE LIGHT DETECTION AND RANGING OR SOMETHING LIKE THAT, BUT IT'S AN ACRONYM. UM, BUT YEAH, IT'S A, IT'S A METHOD TO GET THE DATA. UM, THE MAIN POINT IS THAT, YOU KNOW, WE TOOK A LEAP FORWARD, UH, WITH, UH, I BELIEVE IT'S A 2014 PRODUCT THAT THE COUNTY HAS, UM, THAT IT, IT'S JUST MUCH BETTER THAN WHAT WE WERE USING PREVIOUSLY. AND SO THERE'S A LOT MORE DETAIL OF, EVEN LIKE WITHIN URBAN AREAS, YOU CAN SEE, UH, STREETS AND FIELDS AND, UH, AREAS AROUND HOUSES WITH JUST A LOT MORE CLARITY TO UNDERSTAND WHAT THE FLOODING HAZARDS ARE, UM, AT THAT GRANULARITY LEVEL. SO WE'RE USING ALL OF THAT DATA. THE GREAT THING ABOUT THIS TOOL, HEC RAS 2D, IS THAT WE'LL USE ALL OF IT. UM, IT'S NOT LIKE MOST 2D MODELS WHERE YOU HAVE CELLS AND THEY EACH GET ONE ELEVATION IN THE HC RAS MODEL, EVERY LITTLE CELL THAT WE HAVE, IT USES ALL OF THE EDGES OF THE CELLS AS CROSS-SECTIONS AND IT DIRECTLY SAMPLES THAT LIDAR DATA. AND SO WE'RE REALLY GETTING, UH, A GREAT PRODUCT, UM, FOR THE OVERBANK MODELING ESPECIALLY, AND ALSO FOR THE CHANNEL. AND WE ALSO DID USE, YOU KNOW, FOR THE AREA THAT'S TITLE, UM, WE USE SOME MEASUREMENTS OF, UM, THE CLEAN OUT, UH, THAT, THAT'S HAPPENED WITH, UH, THE CORPS OF ENGINEERS. AND WE USE THEIR DATA TO GET THE, UH, THE DIMENSIONS OF THE PETALUMA RIVER IN THE TIDAL SECTION. THANK YOU. I BELIEVE OUR COUNCIL MEMBER THOMPSON HAS A QUESTION QUESTION, UM, WITH THE ADOBE LUMBER OR THE WIX LUMBER UP NORTH, AND WE JUST, UM, APPROVED, UM, UM, APPROVED SOMETHING UP THERE. I KNOW WHAT IT WAS. UM, SO THE 11,500, YOU KNOW, SQUARE FEET OF FILL THAT'S THERE, IF, ARE WE GONNA MODEL TO SEE IF THAT IS REMOVED, WHAT THAT'S GONNA DO WITH THE UPPER AREA OF THE RIVER, AND WILL THAT MAKE A DIFFERENCE? IT MIGHT MAKE A DIFFERENCE, AND YES, WE CAN MODEL THAT. AND PAM OR HEATHER, CAN YOU REMIND ME WHAT THE, WHAT THE APPLICATION WAS AGAIN AND WHAT WAS ANNEXATION? NOT, ISN'T IT? THAT WAS THE ANNEXATION ANNEXATION REQUEST, AND I BELIEVE THAT'S GOING TO CITY COUNCIL [01:10:01] NEXT MONTH. IT'S SCHEDULED TO GO TO COUNCIL NEXT MONTH, BUT WE'RE CONTINUING TO EVALUATE THE ALTERNATIVES THAT WOULD BE PRESENTED TO, UH, COUNCIL. IF YOU RECALL, THE COMMISSION RECOMMENDED THAT THE COUNCIL SUPPORT THE ANNEXATION. UM, BUT, BUT IDENTIFIED THAT, UH, STAFF SHOULD BRING SOME ALTERNATIVES BEFORE COUNCIL THAT WOULD CONSIDER, UH, ALLOWING THE ANNEXATION OR SUPPORTING THE ANNEXATION WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF THAT FILL, WHICH IS ABOUT 11,500 CUBIC YARDS OF FILL THAT HAD BEEN INSTALLED IN THE LATE 1990S, EARLY 2000. AND THE APPLICATION IS ANNEXATION, BUT NO, UH, ACTUAL DEVELOPMENT. BUT THE, THE ISSUE OF REMOVAL OF THE FILL CAME UP DURING THE HEARINGS. YEAH, RIGHT. AND I, I THOUGHT IT WAS, UM, IF, IF, IF IT MOVED FORWARD WITH THE PROJECT, THEN IT WOULD HAVE TO BE REMOVED, BUT IT WOULD JUST BE NICE TO HAVE THAT BALANCE SO WE CAN SEE THE DIFFERENCE IF THE, IF THE FILL WAS PLACED BEFORE 2014 OR SO, THEN THE MODEL KNOWS IT'S THERE. AND THAT'S BEEN INCORPORATED INTO THE MODEL RESULTS. UH, THE MODEL COULD BE USED TO CONSIDER. WHAT IF THAT MATERIAL WAS REMOVED, WOULD THAT PROVIDE BENEFIT OR WOULD IT, UH, PROVIDE HARM? IT'D BE HARD TO, HARD TO FIND A WAY THAT COULD PROVIDE HARM TO THE FLOOD POINT, BUT, UH, BUT IF IT WAS BASICALLY THE, THE TERRAIN MODEL WAS A SNAPSHOT OF 2014, IF THE DIRT WAS THERE IN 2014, THE MODEL KNOWS ABOUT IT AND CONSIDERS IT. OKAY. SO I'D LIKE TO KNOW IF THE MODEL KNOWS BEFORE THE MEETING TO THE CITY COUNCIL. JESSICA, UM, THANKS VERY MUCH FOR THIS. IT'S SUPER INTERESTING STUFF. UM, AND I WANTED TO, UM, ASK A CLARIFYING QUESTION AROUND THAT PREDICTING POTENTIAL FUTURE SECTION, WHICH I'M SURE IS A CHALLENGING PIECE OF YOUR WORK. UM, AND I UNDERSTAND THAT THERE'S A VARIETY OF VARIABLES, ONE OF WHICH YOU SAID WAS URBAN COVER, AND THAT WHEN YOU RAN THE MODEL, THE IMPERVIOUS COVER WASN'T REALLY DOING A WHOLE LOT, UM, TO IMPACT OUR FLOOD RISK. AND I WANTED TO KNOW, UM, WHEN WAS THAT SNAPSHOT OF URBAN COVER? IS THAT 2014 THAT WE'RE SAYING IS OUR URBAN COVER? DAVE WILL CORRECT ME, BUT I BELIEVE SO THAT IT WAS, THE UNDERSTANDING OF CURRENT IMPERVIOUS COVER WAS BASED ON THE LIDAR DATA, WHICH I BELIEVE IS 2014. OKAY. UM, I'M CURIOUS IF WE COULD ADD THE NEXT 10 YEARS OF BUILDING AND ALSO POTENTIALLY INCORPORATE APPROVED PROJECTS, PERHAPS OYSTER COVE, WHICH IS GONNA BE IN AN INTERESTING SPOT AS IT PERTAINS TO IMP IMPERVIOUS COVER. IF WE CAN GET THOSE APPROVED PROJECTS, UM, THAT WILL INEVITABLY BRING MORE CONCRETE TO THE CITY TO BE INCORPORATED INTO THE MODEL. SO ONE OF THE, ONE OF THE THINGS THE MODEL LETS YOU DO IS KIND OF STRESS TEST SOME OF THESE SCENARIOS. SO WE DID A STRESS TEST OF IMPERVIOUS COVER WITHIN THE CITY. WE DID NOT, THIS WASN'T ANY TEST OF WHAT HAPPENS OUTSIDE THE CITY THAT DIDN'T HAVE DATA TO GO WITH ON THAT. BUT WHAT WE DID IN THE CITY WAS WE BASICALLY TOOK THE CURRENT UNDERSTANDING, THE 2014 UNDERSTANDING OF IMPERVIOUS COVER, AND WE WENT, UH, WE WENT RATHER AGGRESSIVE WITH IT. WE DIDN'T LOOK AT, WE, WHAT'S PROPOSED. WE SAID, WHAT'S THE WORST THAT COULD HAPPEN? WHAT IF EVERYTHING GOT, UM, KIND OF TAKEN UP A NOTCH IN TERMS OF PAVEMENT? WHAT IF ALL THE SINGLE FAMILY GOES TO MALTI, WHICH JUST A COMPLETELY UN UNREASONABLE, UH, FUTURE. RIGHT? UM, BASICALLY AS MUCH AS WE COULD TURN THE DIAL UP TO HOW MUCH CONCRETE COULD WE PUT INTO THE CITY, LET'S TEST THE MODEL AND SEE HOW MUCH WORSE THE FLOOD GETS. AND THE MODEL SAID IT DOESN'T GET THAT MUCH WORSE. UM, AND THE REASON FOR THAT IS, UH, AGAIN, MOSTLY BECAUSE THE, THE, THAT PEAK EVENT THAT, YOU KNOW, WHEN'S, WHEN'S THAT BIG SLUG OF WATER COMING THROUGH THE CITY THAT'S GONNA FLOOD US. IT MOSTLY COMES FROM OUTSIDE THE CITY. THE STUFF THAT LANDED ON THE CITY MOSTLY ALREADY MADE ITS WAY OUT TO THE BAY. AND THE THING TO THINK ABOUT IN THE IMPERVIOUS COVER CONVERSATION, AND I SAY THIS AS SOMEBODY WHO DESIGNED STORMWATER SYSTEMS, OUS COVER'S BRUTAL. IT REALLY RUINS A LOT OF ISSUE. IT CAUSES HUGE ISSUES WITH RUNOFF QUALITY, URBAN HEAT, ISLAND EFFECT, LOST GROUNDWATER RECHARGE, INCREASED IRRIGATION DEMAND, AND VEGETATION. IT'S ABSOLUTELY ATROCIOUS IN A LOT OF REASONS. BUT FOCUSING IN ON WHAT THIS MODEL DOES, WHICH IS SAY, HOW DOES RAINFALL BEHAVE IN THE A HUNDRED YEAR STORM? A THING TO CONSIDER IS THAT IN THAT A HUNDRED YEAR STORM, WE'RE TALKING INCHES OF RAINFALL, SIX INCHES UP TO 10 INCHES IN CERTAIN AREAS. A PARK, EVEN WITH THE BEST SOIL IN THE WORLD, PRETTY MUCH STARTS BEHAVING LIKE A PARKING LOT. ONCE YOU'VE HAD THAT MANY INCHES OF RAIN, RIGHT? IT HITS SATURATION. YOU'VE SEEN THAT EVEN IN THE PARK AREAS. IT STARTS PONDING UP, IT STARTS, PUDDLING STARTS RUNNING OFF. UH, THESE [01:15:01] A HUNDRED YEAR EVENTS WE'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE ARE REALLY DRASTIC. AND SO IT TURNS OUT THE MODEL KIND OF SHOWED WAS EVEN IF WE GO A LITTLE BIT CRAZY AND JUST PRETEND LIKE PRETTY MUCH EVERYTHING GOT PAVED, THE EFFECT ON PEAK FLOOD AND THE, THE HEIGHT OF THE RIVER IS, IT WAS VERY INSIGNIFICANT. UM, NOT TO SAY THAT AMOUNT OF, UH, CONCRETE COULD HAPPEN, AND DEFINITELY NOT TO SAY IT'S OKAY, IT WOULD BE A CALAMITY FOR A WHOLE OTHER REASONS. BUT JUST LOOKING AT THE A HUNDRED YEAR FLOOD, IT'S, THE MODEL WAS NOT SENSITIVE TO IMPERVIOUS COVER WITHIN THE CITY. AND, AND I CAN, I CAN KIND OF EXPAND ON WHY A LITTLE BIT. I, A BIG PORTION OF THE BASIN AS WE TALKED ABOUT IS THAT UPPER WATERSHED. UM, AND SO THAT IS REALLY THE SLUG OF WATER THAT COMES DOWN THE RIVER THAT WE'RE MOST CONCERNED ABOUT. AND SO HONESTLY, HAVING THE CITY, UH, WITH ITS, YOU KNOW, URBANIZATION AND CORRESPONDING IMPERVIOUS SURFACES WHERE IT IS, IS ACTUALLY GOOD BECAUSE THAT WATER WILL RUN OFF FASTER AND WE KIND OF WANT IT TO RUN OFF FASTER. IT'S ACTUALLY NOT GOOD TO DETAIN WATER IN THAT LOWER PART OF THE CITY BECAUSE THEN WHEN YOU RELEASE IT, IT'S GONNA BE MORE PEAK TO PEAK WITH THE UPPER WATERSHED FLOWS COMING DOWN THE RIVER. AND SO WHAT WE ARE FINDING IS, YEAH, THE, THE IMPERVIOUS SURFACE, IT REALLY ISN'T A BAD THING FOR MOST OF THE CITY, UH, BUT, UH, EXCEPT FOR THE POINTS SEBASTIAN WAS MAKING ABOUT KIND OF LOCAL, UH, ISSUES. BUT, UM, IN TERMS OF THE PEAK FLOW ON THE PETALUMA RIVER, IT'S REALLY NOT A HINDRANCE. AND THE OTHER THING IS THAT A LOT OF THE WATERSHEDS ALREADY HAVE A VERY HIGH KIND OF, UM, IMPERVIOUS LEVEL TO START WITH JUST BASED ON, YOU KNOW, THE, THE SOILS AND EVERYTHING THAT, THAT ARE CONTRIBUTING TO THE CREEKS. AND SO WE'RE ALREADY AT A VERY HIGH SORT OF RUNOFF LEVEL, UM, SAY, YOU KNOW, AT 90 OUT OF A HUNDRED, OR I'M SORRY, ZERO TO A HUNDRED, WE'RE ALREADY IN LIKE CLOSE TO THE 90%, UH, RUNNING OFF, UH, LEVEL. AND SO, UM, YOU KNOW, ADDING A COUPLE PERCENT IMPERVIOUS TO THAT, MAKING IT 92, IT REALLY DOESN'T CHANGE THINGS. AND, AND LIKE I SAID, IT ACTUALLY KIND OF HELPS IN THE LOWER WATERSHED TO HAVE THAT RUNNING OFF FASTER. AND JUST AS A, AS A QUICK POINT OF CLARIFICATION, WHEN YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT SORT OF THE RIVER, IT'S NOT THAT AFFECTED, YOU ALSO MEAN CREEKS, RIGHT? YES. OKAY. YEAH, IT, ON THE TOTAL FLOOD PLAIN, IT DIDN'T HAVE A NOTICEABLE EFFECT. OKAY. GOTCHA. I HAVE A, A FOLLOW UP QUESTION ON, UM, I GUESS THE, UH, THE SURFACE ROUGHNESS VARIABLE. SO YOU WERE TALKING ABOUT, UM, THE, IT'S A LOW VALUE FOR PERMEABLE AND THEN A HIGH VALUE FOR VEGETATION AND LIKE WILLOWS AS AN EXAMPLE. I'M CURIOUS IF THE MODEL ACCOUNTS FOR THAT VEGETATION AND CREATING SANDBARS AND WHAT, LIKE DREDGING AND THINGS LIKE THAT LOOK LIKE, AND IF WE WERE TO RUN THE MODEL AND SAY WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY MORE MONEY TO DO DREDGING WOULD, HOW WOULD THAT IMPACT THE MODEL? YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. AND UM, AND WE'VE, WE'VE LOOKED AT THAT IN THE PAST TO UNDERSTAND, YOU KNOW, HOW IMPORTANT IS DREDGING AND IT, IT'S MORE OF AN ISSUE, NOT SO MUCH FOR THE ROUGHNESS SIDE OF IT AS IT IS JUST FOR THE CONVEYANCE AND THE, UH, THE FLOW AREA THAT'S AVAILABLE. UM, BUT, UH, YEAH, ON THE CREEKS FOR SURE, THE, THE CLEARING OUT OF THE VEGETATION IS, IS A HUGE COMPONENT OF ALL OF THIS. AND THE AMOUNT OF FLOODING THAT WE GET, UM, IN THE CREEKS AND AROUND THE CREEKS LIKE ADOBE CREEK FOR EXAMPLE. UM, YOU KNOW, HAVING THAT, THAT CHANNEL CLEAR MAKES A HUGE DIFFERENCE. AND THAT, THAT WAS ONE OF THE THINGS THAT THE MODEL UPDATE DID, WAS AS A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT THE CURRENT VEGETATION IN THE CREEKS ARE. AND COMPARED TO 20 YEARS AGO, THERE'S A LOT MORE VEGETATION IN OUR CREEKS, WHICH HAS REALLY GOOD BENEFITS AROUND HABITAT AND CARBON SEQUESTRATION AND ABSOLUTE BENEFITS THERE. MM-HMM. , BUT IT DOES APPEAR TO BE HAVING AN IMPACT IN, UH, HOW DIFFICULT IT IS WATER FOR FLOOD WATER TO GET THROUGH THE CREEK. AND THERE ARE SOME LOCATIONS WHERE IT DOES SEEM TO NOW SPILL OUT OF THE CREEK WHERE IN THE MODEL 20 YEARS AGO THAT ASSUMED RATHER DENUDED UNVEGETATED CREEK CHANNELS, IT WATER WAS ABLE TO FLUSH THROUGH MUCH FASTER. IS, IS THAT, IS THAT THIS A SINGLE VARIABLE SCALE OF LOW TO HIGH ROUGHNESS? AND SO SOMETHING LIKE CRANKING UP THAT ONE NUMBER, WOULD, IT WOULDN'T ACCOUNT FOR THINGS LIKE DREDGING AND SO, OR, OR IS THERE MULTIPLE ASPECTS TO WHAT THE ROUGHNESS SCALE IS? THE, THE ROUGHNESS SCALE ITSELF IS CALLED THE, THE MANNINGS, UH, THE MANNINGS COEFFICIENT. AND IT IS SPECIFIC TO BASICALLY EVERY FOOT OF EVERY CHANNEL HAS A MANNINGS COEFFICIENT ASSIGNED TO IT BASED ON THE FIELD WORK THAT SAID, THIS CHANNEL IS A CONCRETE DITCH. THIS CHANNEL IS DIRT, THIS CHANNEL HAS GRASS, [01:20:01] THIS ONE HAS WILLOWS. UH, EACH BASICALLY FOOT OF CHANNEL IS INDIVIDUALLY ASSIGNED THAT COEFFICIENT OF HOW ROUGH THE SURFACE IS. UH, SO IT IS A SINGLE NUMBER, BUT IT'S ASSIGNED PER FOOT. AND THEN THAT OTHER FACTOR THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT OF KIND OF DOWN IN THE, IN THE RIVER ITSELF, WAS IT DREDGED OR NOT? THAT'S MORE OF A, A SHAPE QUESTION. HOW DEEP, HOW WIDE. UM, ALTHOUGH, YOU KNOW, THE MUD, THE MUD, UH, SURFACE OF THE RIVER HAS ITS OWN MANNING, UH, COEFFICIENT. IT'S PRETTY SLICK. WATER MOVES ACROSS IT PRETTY QUICK. UM, THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS THE MODEL LETS US DO NOW WOULD BE THAT PREVIOUS STUDIES WERE WOULD BE DIFFICULT IS IN WHAT PARTS OF THE RIVER DOES DREDGING PROVIDE A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD CONTROL BENEFIT, AND IN WHAT AREAS DOES IT NOT? AND WE HAVE THE, NOW WITH THE MODEL, YOU HAVE THAT DETAIL TO BE ABLE TO PICK SECTION BY SECTION. UH, WHERE IS IT HELPING GET WATER OUT OF THE CITY AND IN WHAT AREAS, UH, DOES IT HAVE NO EFFECT ON, ON IF IT THE BOTTOM OF THE RIVER WERE TO FILL UP AGAIN. UH, THANKS. I JUST HAVE TWO MORE, UM, QUICK QUESTIONS. ONE WAS MORE OF A CLARIFYING QUESTION. ON SLIDE 30, THERE WAS A IMAGE, I DON'T KNOW, IT WAS MORE JUST A IMAGE AND IT SHOWED 23, 24 AND LIKE THE UPPER RIVER. AND I JUST WANTED SOME CONTEXT ON THAT. IF WE CAN GO INTO THAT IN THE MAPPING. THAT'S FINE. UM, AND THEN MY LAST QUESTION IS, UM, YOU MENTIONED THAT THE MODEL WAS CALIBRATED BASED ON THE MOST, THE THREE MOST RECENT EVENTS. AND I'M CURIOUS WHAT THOSE EVENTS WERE AND IF WE'RE GONNA GET MORE INFORMATION ON THOSE EVENTS AND IF THERE IS A MAP THAT EXISTS OF THOSE EVENTS. I'LL LET DAVE HANDLE THE, THE CALIBRATION. YOUR QUESTION WAS ON SLIDE 30. UM, UH, SORRY, I SORRY, I'M NOT SPECIFICALLY WHAT YOU WANTED. OH, SORRY, , JUST THE HYDRAULICS ONE. HERE YOU GO. YEAH, JUST THE, THE, THE UPPER RIGHT, THE 23 AND THE 24 I, YOU KNOW, IT'S SORT OF LIKE THE UPPER RIVER IS THIS BIG RED SCARY THING, I SUPPOSE AND I JUST, IT WASN'T COVERED. AND, YOU KNOW, PER, UM, COMMISSION MEMBER SEN'S COMMENTS ON LIKE THE UPPER RIVER AND WHATNOT, I'M, I'M CURIOUS THE IMPORTANCE OF 2324 AND YOU KNOW, IF THAT'S DAVE, DAVE, YOU WANNA EXPLAIN THE BIG RED SKI? YEAH, SURE. YEAH. THAT SCARY SPIDER LOOKING THING THAT, THAT'S THE, UH, THE PORTION OF THE MODEL THAT WE RECEIVED FROM, UM, THE WATER AGENCY. UH, IT, IT, THAT WAS THERE, THE LIMITS OF THE MODEL THAT THEY STARTED WITH. AND WE, WE HONESTLY, WE REDID THE WHOLE THING, BUT UM, THAT WAS KIND OF THE LIMIT. UM, THE DELINEATION, I THINK IT'S RIGHT THERE. WHERE WILLOWBROOK COMES IN IS ABOUT WHERE THEY STOPPED. UM, SO THAT'S, THAT'S WHAT THAT WAS TRYING TO SHOW IS THE UPPER WATERSHED VERSUS LOWER WATERSHED. AND THAT'S KIND OF WHAT THE 2D MODEL LOOKS LIKE. WE'RE NOT MODELING EVERY LITTLE SQUARE INCH, WE'RE JUST MODELING THE AREAS THAT ARE WET. AND SO THAT RED KIND OF REPRESENTS THE, THE 2D MODEL LIMIT IN THAT AREA. OKAY. RICK, AND THEN THERE WAS THAT QUESTION ABOUT THE CALIBRATION AGAINST THE LARGEST STORMS, DAVE, IF YOU COULD COVER THAT. YEAH, AND I DON'T HAVE THE LIST OF STORMS IN FRONT OF ME, BUT IF MEMORY SERVES, I BELIEVE WE DID LOOK AT THE NEW YEAR'S STORM AGAIN. UH, AS WELL AS THERE WAS ONE IN 2017, I BELIEVE IN 2019. IT WAS BASICALLY THE LARGEST EVENTS, UM, WHERE WE HAD THE MOST DATA. AND SO WE HAD TO, UH, REALLY, WE WERE LOOKING FOR RAINFALL DATA AS WELL AS STREAM GAUGE DATA. AND WE HAD TO HAVE ALL OF IT FOR EACH EVENT FOR IT TO MAKE SENSE. AND SO WE, WE REALLY LOOKED AT THE LARGEST EVENTS AND ALSO THE ONES THAT HAD THE MOST DATA. THIS, THIS GOES TO THIS QUESTION IN, IN FLOOD MODELING, ARE YOU MODELING A SPECIFIC STORM OR ARE YOU MODELING THIS STATISTICAL AVERAGE OF THE STORM THAT HAS A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING IN SOME PLACES? SOME JURISDICTIONS, UH, I'M THINKING LIKE IN A LOT, UH, PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST HURRICANE MATTHEW IS THE STORM. THEY JUST TAKE THE DATA FROM THAT. WHAT IF MATTHEW HITS AGAIN, UH, WHAT'S USED HERE MORE OFTEN AND WHAT THE CITY'S ALWAYS DONE IS THIS AVERAGE, UH, HOW BIG CAN OF STORM? WHAT'S THE 1% CHANCE, WHAT IS THE BIGGEST STORM THAT STILL IS A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING EACH YEAR? UH, AND IT, IT IS AN AVERAGE AND THAT MEANS THAT YOU CAN'T DIRECTLY COMPARE IT TO A SPECIFIC STORM BECAUSE A STORM WILL BEHAVE VERY DIFFERENTLY. WHAT IF IT APPROACHED FROM THE SOUTH VERSUS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST? WHAT IF IT LOITERED OVER SONOMA MOUNTAIN MORE? THAT'LL CAUSE A LOT MORE FLOODING IN THE EASTERN [01:25:01] TRIPS AND YOU'LL GET NOT MUCH, UH, FLOODING IN KELLY THOMPSON AND LIBERTY. UM, SO THAT'S WHAT IT'S, YOU WANNA CALIBRATE INTO MULTIPLE STORMS AND YOU WANT TO KIND OF TREAT THIS, THINK OF THIS MODEL AS IT'S VERY UNLIKELY THAT ALL OF THE AREAS SHOWN IN THIS FLOOD MAP FLOOD ON IN THE SAME STORM. IT'S VERY UNLIKELY 'CAUSE THIS KIND OF REQUIRES THE HEAVIEST RAINS TO HIT EVERYWHERE IN THE WATERSHED. UH, REALLY YOU SHOULD THINK OF THIS, THAT BLUE AREA AS THOSE AREAS HAVE A 1% CHANCE OF BEING FLOODED PER YEAR, BUT IT'S PROBABLY NOT ALL OF IT THAT HAPPENS AT THE SAME TIME. CERTAIN PARTS WILL PROBABLY BE SPARED 'CAUSE SOMETHING WEIRD HAPPENED WITH THE RAIN AND IT PARKED ITSELF OVER, UH, DENMAN HILL, RIGHT? AND IT KIND OF LEFT, UH, MARIN CREEK AND LIBERTY VALLEY ALONE. SO CONSIDER THAT THIS, THIS HUNDRED YEAR FUND MATTER IS AN AVERAGE STATISTICAL AVERAGE, RICK. SO COINCIDENTALLY, I WAS GONNA GO RIGHT TO CALIBRATION AS WELL AND, AND BENCHMARKING. YOU MENTIONED, UM, PETALUMA WAS KIND OF OUT IN THE, THE VANGUARD A BIT USING THIS, THIS MODELING. I THINK YOU, YOU SAID THAT IF, CORRECT ME IF I'M WRONG, UM, BUT I'M JUST WONDERING IF YOU CAN PROVIDE ME IN CONTEXT TO THAT. ARE WE ONE OF, YOU KNOW, 10 JURISDICTIONS IN THE BAY AREA, ONE OF 10 IN THE STATE, ONE OF 10 IN THE COUNTRY. HOW WIDELY IS THIS MODELING, UH, TOOL USED? THE DAVE CAN PROVIDE MORE NUMBERS ON THE HECK CROSS MODEL. HECK CROSS IS A UNIVERSAL INDUSTRY STANDARD, THE SOFTWARE ITSELF. MM-HMM. , UH, I THINK IT'D, IT'D BE HARD TO FIND HYDROLOGY FIRMS IN THE US THAT AREN'T ALSO USING THIS TOOL NOW. UM, UH, WE USE IT IN OUR OFFICE, ALTHOUGH WE DO SMALLER PROJECTS THAN, THAN, UH, THE ENTIRE WATERSHED IN TERMS OF HOW DO YOU INCORPORATE THESE FUTURE PROJECTIONS OF THESE VARIABLES THAT MIGHT CHANGE SEA LEVEL GOING UP, UM, RAINFALL, GETTING MORE INTENSE, STORM SURGES, GETTING MORE INTENSE, THOSE SORTS OF THINGS. THAT'S WHERE, UH, THERE ARE, YEAH, WE'RE, WE'RE WITH A GROUP FIGURING THESE THINGS OUT. WE'RE ALSO SOME, WE'RE ALSO USING GUIDANCE, UH, THAT IS STILL BEING IMPROVED AND DEVELOPED AND REISSUED EVERY THREE TO FIVE YEARS. MM-HMM, . SO IN TERMS OF WHAT NUMBER OF OF CITIES, UH, IS THERE ANYONE ELSE LAYERING THE SEA LEVEL RISE PREDICTIVE MODEL ON TOP OF, OF FLOOD MODELS? HOW MANY ARE DOING THAT? YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. UH, WITHIN THE BAY AREA, I WOULD SAY MOST JURISDICTIONS WITHIN THE BAY AREA HAVE AT LEAST A PRELIMINARY LOOK AT HOW SEA LEVEL RISE, UH, UH, AFFECTS THEM. THEY PROBABLY AREN'T GOING AS SO FAR YET AS TO INCORPORATE IT INTO A FLOOD MODEL LIKE THIS. AND ONE OF THE REASONS FOR THAT IS JURISDICTIONS WITHIN THE BAY AREA ARE TYPICALLY MORE SUBJECT TO DIRECT COASTAL FLOODING, WHICH IS MAPPED, UH, WITH REGIONALLY AVAILABLE TOOLS. THERE'S A COUPLE TOOLS AVAILABLE FROM, UH, OCOF IS ONE OF THEM. BCDC HAS THEIR OWN COUPLE DIFFERENT REGIONAL TOOLS THAT LOOK AT, OKAY, THROW A FOOT OF SEA LEVEL RISE, THROW TWO FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE. UM, THAT'S VERY WIDESPREAD. AND I WOULD, I WOULD SAY PRETTY MUCH STANDARD NOW FOR COASTAL CALIFORNIA AND BAY AREA FIRMS, UH, JURISDICTIONS. THIS GOING AN EXTRA LAYER TO, TO FACTOR IN. OKAY, WHAT IS THE COMBINED EFFECT OF SEA LEVEL RISE WHILE THE RIVER IS DRAINING RAINFALL? THAT'S WHERE, UH, LET ME THINK. A FEW WATERSHEDS IN MARIN COUNTY DID THIS, UH, STRAWBERRY CREEK IN BERKELEY. MOST OF ALAMEDA HAS BEEN MODELED THIS WAY. UH, I THINK THE GUADALUPE RIVER, THE LOWER GUADALUPE, IT'S IN, UH, SAN JOSE, THE SOUTH BAY. SO I WOULDN'T SAY WE'RE ALONE, BUT I WOULD SAY WE'RE ONLY, UH, I LIKE TO THINK OF IT AS HOW MANY YEARS AHEAD ARE WE, WE'RE MAYBE A COUPLE YEARS, A YEAR OR TWO BEHIND. MARIN HAS BEEN GOING REALLY AGGRESSIVELY ON THIS. THEIR BAY WAVE PROGRAM WAS PRETTY MUCH THE FIRST IN THE REGION. UM, BUT THERE WE ARE ALSO MANY YEARS AHEAD OF A LOT OF OTHER JURISDICTIONS. GOT IT. GOT IT. SO, YOU KNOW, THE NUMBER OF JURISDICTIONS, EVEN THOUGH I PHRASED IT THAT WAY, IS, IS NOT AS IMPORTANT. I GUESS WHAT I WANT TO GET AT IS, UM, YOU KNOW, UH, WEATHER IS, IS KIND OF DRIVEN BY CHANCE. WE MAY HAVE, YOU KNOW, A STRING OF DRY YEARS IN STRING OF WET YEARS AS WE KNOW. UM, BUT CAN OUR MODEL BE INFLUENCED [01:30:01] USING A FEEDBACK LOOP FROM OTHER JURISDICTIONS WHO MAY HAVE MORE CONSISTENT, UM, WEATHER PATTERNS THAT ARE USING THE SAME MODEL THAT THEN WE CAN UPDATE OUR MODEL RATHER THAN WAIT FOR THE, OUR NEXT BIG SERIES OF STORMS TO INFORM OUR MODELING? YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. THERE, THERE'S A THING HERE ABOUT THE MODEL THAT TO CONSIDER IS THERE IS THE BIG TASK OF BUILDING A MODEL THAT'S BUILDING A SOFTWARE TOOL. BASICALLY, ONCE YOU HAVE THAT TOOL, YOU CAN PLUG IN VARIABLES MM-HMM , AND YOU CAN RUN THE MODEL AGAIN. SO THINK OF YOU'VE BUILT YOUR BIG EXCEL SPREADSHEET, TOOK YOU AGES AND AGES, BUT WHEN YOU WANT TO GO IN AND SAY, WHAT HAPPENS IF I CHANGE THAT INTEREST RATE BY 1% BIG, YOU CAN RUN THE MODEL AND YOU GET YOUR OUTPUTS. IT'S NOT QUITE AS SIMPLE WITH THIS ONE. BUT ONCE, NOW THAT THIS MODEL IS BUILT, IT IS, IT IS, UH, IT IS CONSIDERABLY EASIER TO PLAY AROUND WITH SOME VARIABLES TO SAY, WE EXPECT THIS SUMMER TO GET UPDATED. SOME UPDATED GUIDANCE FROM SONOMA WATER WHO IS LOOKING AT WHAT'S CALLED THEIR CLIMATE DOWNSCALING EFFORT. THAT'S SET, THEY'RE TRYING TO FIGURE OUT HOW MUCH MORE INTENSE IS THE A HUNDRED YEAR STORM GONNA BE IN 50 YEARS OR IN A HUNDRED YEARS, RIGHT? THEY'RE STORMS ARE GETTING MORE INTENSE. THAT IS THE GENERAL TREND. HOW MUCH MORE, WE DIDN'T HAVE GOOD ENOUGH DATA TO WORK THAT IN RIGHT NOW, BUT EVEN BY THIS SUMMER THAT MIGHT BE AVAILABLE. SIMILARLY, WE'RE EXPECTING UPDATED, UH, SOMETIME THIS YEAR WE'RE EXPECTING UPDATED GUIDANCE FROM THE STATE ON THESE C-LEVEL PREDICTIONS. WE HAVE DRAFT GUIDANCE, WE CAN TALK ABOUT IT AT THE, WE HAVE A SLIDE ON IT AT THE END OF THE PRESENTATION. WE HAVE SOME DRAFT GUIDANCE. IT'S NOT ACTIONABLE YET, BUT ONCE THAT BECOMES LIVE, YOU'RE ABLE TO, IF YOU WANTED TO RUN THE MODEL AGAIN, PLAY AROUND WITH THE C-LEVEL NUMBER, ONCE WE GET NEW RAINFALL INFORMATION, WE COULD, UH, WE COULD PUT THAT INTO IT. IT DOESN'T REQUIRE THE FULL REBUILD OF THE ENTIRE SOFTWARE SYSTEM. THANK YOU, ROGER. YEAH, A QUESTION RELATED TO VEGETATION AND HOW IT IMPACTS THE, YOUR CALCULATIONS, UM, AND PRIMARILY OUTSIDE OF CITY LIMITS IN THE NORTHERN DRAINAGE AREA, UH, HOW MUCH DOES CHANGE OF, YOU KNOW, FROM PASTURE LAND TO VINEYARDS OR A CHANGE OF AGRICULTURAL PRACTICES, HOW MUCH DOES THAT PLAY INTO RUNOFF? I I DON'T REALLY THINK IT'S A HUGE DIFFERENCE, HONESTLY. I THINK, UM, YOU KNOW, THOSE, UH, VEGETATION LEVEL CHANGES, THOSE ARE MORE USEFUL FOR UNDERSTANDING THE HYDRAULICS PART THAT IS LIKE HOW DEEP THE WATER GETS IN THOSE AREAS. BUT IN TERMS OF LIKE THE AMOUNT THAT SINKS INTO THE GROUND VERSUS RUNNING OFF, THAT'S MORE OF A SOILS AN UNDERLINING SOILS ISSUE THAT'S, UH, THAT, THAT DETERMINES THAT FACTOR. SO IT IS, IT IS AN ISSUE TO SOME EXTENT IN TERMS OF LIKE, UH, IF YOU SLOWED DOWN THE WATER CONSIDERABLY TO GET INTO THE CREEK AND THEN FLOW DOWNSTREAM, UH, THAT WOULD BE AN ISSUE. BUT I, I REALLY DON'T THINK THAT THAT IS SOMETHING MAYBE TO FOCUS IN ON. I, 'CAUSE THE UNDERLYING SOILS ARE REALLY GONNA DRIVE THE CONTRIBUTION FROM THE UPPER WATERSHED. I, I GUESS THE QUESTION IS CHANGING TO VINEYARDS FROM, FROM PASTURE. DOES THAT INCREASE THE PROBLEM OR DOES IT HAS NO IMPACT? SO THERE, THERE'S TWO FACTORS TO CONSIDER WITH LAND CONVERSION. UH, ONE OF 'EM IS, DOES IT CHANGE THE WAY THAT RAINFALL RUNS OFF? AND THE SECOND ONE IS, DOES IT CHANGE THE ABILITY OF THAT LAND TO STORE WATER, RIGHT. TO ACT AS A BATHTUB? SO I THINK ABOUT WHERE I LIVE UP OFF, UH, YOU KNOW, THE RAINSVILLE CORNER WHERE IT'S LOW AND IT FLOODS OUT IN THAT BIG FLOODPLAIN, IT'S GORGEOUS. UH, IT'S A GREAT COMMUTE. THE EFFECT, LET'S SAY THAT PASTURE LAND WAS CONVERTED OVER TO, UH, HOUSING. YOU HAD A LOT OF BUILDINGS, A LOT OF PAVEMENT, YOU HAD A LOT OF SOIL COMPACTION CAUSING A LOT OF ISSUES WITH RUNOFF QUALITY AND A LOT, LOT OF ISSUES IN TERMS OF FLOODING. IF YOU LOOK AT THAT, THAT PASTURE LAND RIGHT NOW ON CLAY EAST SOILS RIGHT NOW IN THE MODEL, IT ACTING AS PASTURE LAND, IT'S PROBABLY HAS ABOUT 75% OF THE RAINFALL IS RUNNING OFF OF IT. WHEREAS IF YOU WERE TO CONVERT IT OVER, THAT MIGHT BRING IT UP TO 84, 85 IF IT WAS, UH, KIND OF LIKE A MIXED RESIDENTIAL. SO AN INCREASE IN THE IMPERVIOUS COVER CAUSED MORE RUNOFF. YES. BUT IT'S NOT A, IT'S NOT SO HUGE OF A CHANGE, RIGHT? YOU WENT FROM 75% OF IT RAN OFF TO MAYBE 85%. UM, SO IT HAS EFFECTS. BUT, UM, BUT AGAIN, YOU HAVE TO CONSIDER THAT EVEN OPEN SPACE HAS A LOT OF RUNOFF DURING THESE REALLY BIG EVENTS. I THINK THE BIGGER CONCERN FOR AN AREA LIKE THAT, UH, AND FOR SPECIFIC AREAS WOULD BE LOSS OF FLOOD STORAGE THAT [01:35:01] FLOODPLAIN RIGHT NOW EXPANDS, RIGHT? IT EXPANDS LIKE LUNGS, IT HOLDS A LOT OF WATER. AND THAT WATER THAT SLOWLY TRICKLES OUT. IF YOU WERE TO DRAIN THAT ALL, NOT LET IT FLOOD 'CAUSE A LOT OF HOUSES HAD GONE IN, WHERE DOES THAT WATER GO? WELL, IT GOES DOWNSTREAM. IT GOES TO THE CITY. IS THAT DRAINED WATER NOW GONNA HIT THE CITY AT A GOOD TIME WHEN THE RIVER IS LOW? OR IS IT GONNA HIT IT AT THE WORST TIME WHEN THE RIVER IS HIGH BECAUSE ALL THE OTHER CREEKS ARE HITTING AT THAT EXACT TIME? THIS IS WHERE IT'S PRETTY DIFFICULT TO, WELL, IT'S DIFFICULT WITHOUT A MODEL TO UNDERSTAND WHAT EFFECT A SPECIFIC PARCEL PROJECT HAS ON THE DOWNSTREAM FLOOD IMPACT. 'CAUSE IT'S NOT JUST HOW MUCH RAN OFF, IT'S WHEN IT RAN OFF. UH, AND, AND THIS IS PART OF THE CHALLENGE OF FLOOD CONTROL PROJECTS, AS YOU KNOW, IS THAT IF YOU GET THE TIMING WRONG, YOU CAN MAKE THINGS WORSE. UH, YOU DON'T NEED JUST NEED TO HOLD THE WATER. YOU HAVE TO HOLD THE WATER AT THE RIGHT TIME. SO GENERALLY LAND CONVERSION IS PROBABLY NOT A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PEAK RUNOFF VOLUME. UH, BUT IT MIGHT BE A SPECIFIC LOCAL EVENT, UH, EFFECT ON THE TIMING THAT COULD CAUSE FLOOD IMPACTS. THE MODEL LETS YOU ACTUALLY RATHER QUICKLY PLAY AROUND WITH THAT. UH, LOOK AT AN AREA, UH, FILL IT WITH A LOT OF DIRT IN THE COMPUTER AND SEE WHAT THAT AFFECTS IT'S LOCAL CREEK OR DOWNSTREAM. THANK YOU. THE, THE ONLY OTHER QUESTION IS, UM, DOES VEGETATION, DOES TREE CANOPY HAVE ANY IMP IMPACT ON, UH, ABSORBING WATER, STORING WATER, FLOWING WATER DOWN? YOU KNOW, IF WE, IF WE INCREASED OUR CANOPY COVERAGE IN THIS IN IN PETALUMA FROM 14% TO 25 OR 30%, WOULD THAT HAVE ANY IMPACT? DAVE, SHOULD I TAKE THAT ONE? SURE. UM, PROBABLY NOT. UH, AGAIN, THE, THE, THINK OF THE VOLUME OF WATER THAT'S COMING DOWN DURING THIS BIG EVENT. THIS ISN'T A SMALL RAINSTORM THAT GIVES US A 10TH OF AN INCH OR EVEN A HALF OF AN INCH, UH, IN THOSE SMALL EVENTS. WHICH TO BE FAIR IS THE BULK OF THE WATER WE GET IN A YEAR COMES DOWN TO THESE SMALLER EVENTS. UH, IN THOSE EVENTS IT MIGHT, UH, 'CAUSE THE WATER STAYING UP THERE ON THE TREE, DIDN'T HIT THE GROUND, DIDN'T GO INTO THE STORM DRAIN, UM, COULD HAVE A BENEFIT TO, UH, LIKE A LOCALIZED FLOODING CONCERN, AS IN, DID YOUR CURB FILL UP? UH, DEFINITELY HAS AN IMPROVEMENT ON RUNOFF QUALITY, RIGHT? 'CAUSE OF THE INTERCEPTION OF, OF THAT WATER. BUT YOU HAVE TO THINK OF THIS A HUNDRED YEAR RAIN EVENT. IT'S NOT A HALF INCH, IT'S SIX INCHES AND THAT TREE PROBABLY GOT FULLY SATURATED AFTER THE FIRST 10TH OF AN INCH, EVEN LESS MAYBE. AND SO THE, THE EFFECT OF TREE COVER PROBABLY DOES NOT HAVE ANY NOTICEABLE EFFECT ON THE, THE PEAK FLOODING DURING THESE BIG EVENTS. ALTHOUGH IT SURE HELPS OUR CARBON SEQUESTRATION HABITAT, URBAN GREEN, UH, UH, MICROCLIMATE ISSUES. THANK YOU. I JUST WANTED TO ADD ON ONE THING. I'M LOOKING IN OUR REPORT NOW AND IN TERMS OF THE QUESTION ABOUT CROP LAND VERSUS PASTURE OR VINEYARD VERSUS PASTURE, IT TURNS OUT THAT THAT CATEGORY IS ACTUALLY HOW IT'S DEFINED AND WE'RE USING THE SAME, UH, UH, SCS CURVE NUMBER LOSS RATE FOR BOTH, BOTH OF THOSE CATEGORIES. SO CROPLAND PASTURE, IT'S REALLY THE SAME, SAME DIFFERENCE IN THE MODEL. UH, FOR THE RUNOFF ISSUE, I WOULD THINK THE CONCERN THERE WOULD BE AROUND THE EFFECTS OF DID THAT PROJECT HAVE AN ACCOMPANYING DRAINAGE PLAN WHICH REDUCED THE FLOOD STORAGE OF THAT LOAD? YES. UH, AND THAT'S WHERE THINGS NET ZERO FILL STANDARDS ARE, UH, ARE, ARE TOOLS AROUND THAT. OKAY. UH, I HAVE A FEW QUESTIONS AS WELL. UM, WELL FIRST OF ALL, I REALLY DID WANNA THANK GINA AND HEATHER AND THE REST OF THE TEAM FOR BRINGING THIS TO US. UH, YOU COMMENTED ON THE EARLIER PLANNING COMMISSIONS BRINGING THIS UP. I THINK I WAS IN SOME OF THOSE MEETINGS WHEN I FIRST JUMPED ON WHERE WE KEPT ASKING ABOUT HOW WE WERE MODELING FOR THE FUTURE. I CAN TELL ALREADY A LOT OF THIS PRESENTATION HAS SHOWN JUST WHY IT TAKES AS LONG AS IT DOES TO MAKE SURE WE'RE GETTING THE RIGHT OUTPUT. WHERE I WANTED TO START THOUGH, IN TERMS OF THE, UH, LONGER TIMEFRAME FOR THE RAIN DATASET, WHAT WAS THE LENGTH OF TIME, DAVE, YOU WANNA SPEAK TO THAT? YOU'RE ASKING ABOUT THE, THE AMOUNT OF STORMS THAT WE LOOKED AT OR MM-HMM. HE'S ASKING ABOUT HOW, I THINK, HOW MUCH HISTORY DO WE HAVE ON, ON THE CORRECT. OH, OKAY. YEAH, IT GOES, I MEAN, IT GOES BACK AROUND TO 2005. I DON'T THINK THERE WAS A, A LOT OF BIG EVENTS PRIOR TO THAT. I THINK THE LAST MODELING EFFORT WE LOOKED AT, UM, THE, THE NEW YEAR'S STORM, AND THEN THERE WAS AN EVENT JUST BEFORE [01:40:01] IT, AND THEN A SMALLER EVENT A FEW YEARS LATER. BUT, UM, AND I CAN CONFIRM IT WAS DECEMBER, 2005, UH, JANUARY, 2017 AND FEBRUARY, 2019 WERE THE THREE EVENTS THAT WERE THE LARGEST IN TERMS OF THE, THE FLOW THAT WAS MEASURED AT PETALUMA RIVER THAT WE USED. GOT IT. THANK YOU. I MEAN, THAT'S WELL BEYOND WHAT FEMA REQUIRES IN MOST OF ITS DOCUMENTATION. UH, THAT'S RELIEVING TO HEAR. UH, IN TERMS OF THE FLOOD INSURANCE PROGRAM, I, I UNDERSTAND THAT JUST ON THE BACKEND, THIS MODELING WILL PROVIDE PROBABLY MORE THAN ENOUGH IN TERMS OF LOOKING AT OUR, KIND OF LOOK BACK FOR PROJECTIONS FOR A HUNDRED YEAR FLOOD MAPS AND ALL THAT. BUT IN TERMS OF ADOPTING THE MODELING WE'RE USING FOR SEA LEVEL RISE, I CAN ONLY IMAGINE THAT FEMA WOULD BE HAPPIER ABOUT THE ADDED INFORMATION, ESPECIALLY IF WE'RE USING THE ARMY CORPS PROGRAM. BUT I JUST WANTED TO CHECK HOW HAS THAT DISCUSSION WITH FEMA WORKED OUT IF THERE'S NEEDED TO BE ONE AT ALL? I'LL, I'LL MAKE A, A BRIEF COMMENT AND THEN DAVE, I'LL LET YOU BACKFILL. UM, UNFORTUNATELY, I DON'T THINK FEMA REALLY IS TOO CONCERNED RIGHT NOW ABOUT OUR C LEVEL RISE EFFORT. UM, THE, THE MAPPING THAT FEMA IS STANDARDIZED TO THE, WHAT WE CALL THE FIRM'S FIRM, IS THE FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP, RIGHT? FIRM. THOSE ARE THE FEMA MAPS THAT WE GET ONLINE FROM FEMA AND THAT YOU CAN GET ONLINE FOR PETALUMA. THOSE ARE OUR CURRENT FLOOD MAPS. AND THEY DO NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SEA LEVEL RISE, NOR DOES FEMA WANT THEM TO. RIGHT NOW THEY'RE, THEY'RE NOT THERE YET. GOT IT. AND SO WHILE THEY DO A LOT OF GREAT WORK AND PLANNING AND, AND TRAINING AND PREP AROUND SEA LEVEL RISE IMPACTS NOW, AND THEY'RE GETTING, DOING MORE AND MORE OF THAT, THEY HAVE NOT INCORPORATED THAT INTO THE FIRMS. UM, AND SO THE WORK THAT WE ARE DOING IS WAY ABOVE AND BEYOND ANYTHING THAT FEMA WOULD BE LOOKING FOR. AND, UM, AND THERE ARE A LOT OF THINGS THAT WE DO THAT ARE, UM, ABOVE AND BEYOND, UH, AND WHAT FEMA EXPECTS. AND, AND, UM, BECAUSE PETALUMA, UH, REALLY MEETS SUCH A HIGHER REGULATORY STANDARD, THAT'S WHAT HELPS US GET ALL THOSE CREDITS THAT WE GET IN THE CRS PROGRAM, UH, TO DEMONSTRATE, UM, UH, OUR, OUR FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT EXCELLENCE AND HELP US, UH, RELIEVE INSURANCE PREMIUMS FOR OUR FLOODPLAIN RESIDENTS. WE'RE UNLIKELY TO GET ANY MIND. YOU WE'RE OBVIOUSLY DOING THIS SPECIFICALLY FOR OUR OWN PLANNING DOCUMENTATION, NOT FOR THE, THE CREDIT BENEFIT, BUT I WAS JUST HOPING THERE'D BE SOME KIND OF RECOGNITION TO THE WORK WE'RE TAKING ON WITHOUT THEIR PROMPTING. BUT I TAKE IT AT THIS POINT, THEY'D RATHER NOT ACKNOWLEDGE THAT THEY HAVEN'T GOTTEN THERE. . UH, YEAH. UM, AND DAVE AND PAM, IF YOU WANNA ADD SOMETHING, WOULD LOVE IT. UM, THERE'S MORE TO BE SAID HERE. I'D LOVE TO TALK ABOUT THE CRS PROGRAM. , I SERVE AS THE CRS COORDINATOR, UM, FOR THE RECERTIFICATION IN THE, UH, FIVE YEAR AUDITS FOR, UH, MAINTAINING OUR CLASS SIX, WHICH WAS FIRST ACHIEVED IN 1996 WHEN I WAS THE FLOOD PLAIN ADMINISTRATOR AND PLANNING DIRECTOR FOR THE CITY OF PETALUMA. SO I LOVE THE PROGRAM AND WE ARE, UM, REWARDED FROM OUR, FOR OUR HIGHER REGULATORY STANDARDS. OUR ZERO NET FILL ARE, UH, FREEBOARD REQUIREMENTS, UM, WITH, IF YOU DEVELOP IN THE FLOODPLAIN. AND SO THIS NEW STUDY, AND I USE THAT TERM 'CAUSE THAT IS A FIRM, UH, FEMA TERM, THE, THE SEA LEVEL STUDIES THAT WE ARE DOING, WE WILL SUBMIT THEM AS A NEW STUDY, UM, AND THEY WILL GUIDE THE FRAMEWORK FOR, UM, LAND USE AND, UM, DEVELOPMENT, UH, STANDARDS. SO GINA AND I HAVE BEEN VERY, AND THE REST OF THE PUBLIC WORKS DEPARTMENT HAS BEEN VERY INVOLVED WITH THE GENERAL PLAN TEAM ON SHARING ALL OF THE DATA, UH, WITH THE SEA LEVEL RISE, WORKING WITH THE TEAM, THE GENERAL PLAN TEAM, INCLUDING SEBASTIAN. SO FEMA WILL GIVE US THE RECOGNITION, UH, AND THEY ENCOURAGE IT WITHIN THE, UM, CRS MANUAL AND THE ADDENDUM DOCUMENTS THAT WE HAVE TO FOLLOW, WHICH IS ABOUT 847 PAGES OF REGULATORY, UM, REQUIREMENTS, UH, TO PARTICIPATE IN THE CRS PROGRAM. SO, UM, IT'S A GOOD THING. IT'S A WISE THING FOR PLANNING AND IT'S CERTAINLY A WISE THING AS WE CONTINUE TO TRY TO IMPROVE OUR CLASSIFICATION. UM, WE ARE THE ONLY [01:45:01] CITY IN THE COUNTY, UH, AS A CRS COMMUNITY. THE COUNTY IS CURRENTLY A CLASS 10, WHICH IS WE'VE, THEY'VE JOINED THE CRS AND HAVE NOT DONE ANY ACCREDITATION TO GET TO A, A, A BETTER CLASSIFICATION. SO, UM, PETALUMA'S IS IN THE FOREFRONT OF, UM, OF DEVELOPING HIGHER STANDARDS FOR ITS COMMUNITY. SO CONGRATULATIONS TO ALL OF YOU WHO DO THE WORK. THANK YOU FOR THE CLARITY. I, I ONLY BROUGHT IT UP BECAUSE I, DURING 2019, DURING THE WEST COUNTY FLOODS, I DEALT WITH FEDERAL AID WORKING WITH FEMA FOR A LOT OF THEIR RECOVERY CASES. AND I SAW FIRSTHAND WHAT HAPPENS WHEN SOME COMMUNITIES HAVE HIGHER CERTIFICATION AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR THEIR PREMIUMS FOLLOWING A REBUILD AND WHAT HAPPENS FOR THOSE WHO DIDN'T. AND FRANKLY, FOR THOSE WHO DIDN'T, THEY ENDED UP DISAPPEARING FROM THOSE COMMUNITIES. SO I, I APPRECIATE THE EFFORT THAT'S GONE INTO IT. I'M JUST DISAPPOINTED IN FEMA, BUT I'M KIND OF USED TO THAT AT THIS POINT. DON'T COME TO THE TABLE. . AND ONE, ONE LAST THING, DAVE, DO YOU WANNA SPEAK A LITTLE BIT TO THE, UH, ACTUALLY WE WILL PROBABLY COVER IT IN A LATER SLIDE. I THINK WE TALK ABOUT THE UPCOMING FEMA PROCESS. MAYBE WE'LL HOLD THAT AND, AND COVER THAT LATER. BUT THERE IS MORE FEMA TO COME. THANK YOU. WELL, THERE'S ALWAYS MORE FEMA TO COME. UM, UH, ANOTHER QUESTION GOING SPECIFICALLY BACK TO THE MODEL NOW, THANK YOU FOR ACCEPTING THE DEVIATION, UH, IN TERMS OF WATER FLOW AND HOW THAT'S MAPPED. UH, IS IT, IS IT FLEXIBLE ENOUGH TO, TO SHOW HOW KIND OF WETLAND RESTORATION OR MARSHLAND RESTORATION CAN IMPACT THE MODEL? OR LIKE SOME OF THE OTHER QUESTIONS AT THIS POINT? THE SHEER SIZE OF THE BASE, THE FLOW OF THE VALLEY, IT'S ONLY GONNA HAVE SO MUCH OF AN IMPACT, DAVE? YEAH, IT'S PROBABLY MORE JUST VOLUMETRIC TO BE HONEST. UH, WITH, WITH THAT SORT OF THING, YOU KNOW, KIND OF LIKE A BATHTUB, YOU, YOU PUT A BIG ROCK IN IT AND IT'S GONNA BE THAT MUCH LESS STORAGE. GOT IT. ALRIGHT. AND THEN HOW DOES THE MODEL HANDLE SENTIMENT FLOW BETWEEN THE AND DRAINAGE BETWEEN THE 154 SUBBASINS? DOES IT GET GRANULAR ENOUGH TO SHOW THAT ON AN INDIVIDUAL LEVEL OR IS IT MORE OF AN AGGREGATE OF THE OVERALL? SO THE 154 SUB-BASS, UM, THE FLOW THAT'S CALCULATED FROM THOSE IS BASICALLY ASSUMED TO LAND IN THE CHANNEL OF THE CREEK. AND THEN IF IT CAN'T HANDLE IT, IT FLOWS OUT FROM THERE. BUT IN TERMS OF SEDIMENT TRANSPORT, WE'RE NOT DOING THAT. THAT'S A WHOLE NOTHER LEVEL . GOT IT. ALRIGHT. UM, SO YEAH, THAT, THIS IS JUST HYDRAULICS, STRAIGHT HYDRAULICS, CLEARWATER HYDRAULICS, BASICALLY. OH, THANK YOU FOR THE CLARIFICATION. THAT N IS ABOUT FOUR QUESTIONS, SO I APPRECIATE THAT . UM, AND ACTUALLY GOING BACK TO KIND OF WHERE THE, THE DATABASE COMES FROM. GIVEN, GIVEN THE SHEER VOLUME OF MUNICIPALITIES USING THE DATABASE AND LET ALONE THE ARMY CORPS KIND OF ADDING TO THIS OVER THE YEARS, HOW MUCH IN TERMS OF DATA PROFILES AND FUNCTIONALITY, HOW EXTENSIVE IS THE LIBRARY IN TERMS OF WHAT YOU CAN GRAB TO ADD AS NEEDED FOR THIS MODEL? ? UM, SO ARE YOU TALKING ABOUT DATA TO GET OUT OF THE MODEL OR DATA TO A ADD INTO IT DATA TO ADD INTO IT PROFILES FOR SURFACES, FOR EXAMPLE? PROFILES FOR, OH, OKAY, SURE. EVENTS, THAT SORT OF THING. OH, IT'S REALLY GREAT FOR ADDING OR CLIPPING OUT LITTLE TOPOGRAPHY PIECES AND, AND PUTTING THEM IN. IT'S SUPER EASY TO DO THAT ACTUALLY. UM, SO IF YOU HAD A DEVELOPMENT AND YOU WANTED TO SEE A PROPOSED CONDITIONS RUN, YOU COULD TAKE THAT, THAT AREA AND PUT IN THE DEVELOPED CONDITION. IT WOULD INVOLVE GRADING OR WHAT HAVE YOU. UH, THE MODELS REALLY GOOD AT, AT, AT ANALYZING THAT. SO WE COULD EVEN USE THIS MODEL BEYOND JUST OUR INITIAL PLANNING DOCUMENTS, BUT ALSO JUST TO LOOK AT EACH SUBSEQUENT PROJECT THAT WE HAVE. I'M NOT SAYING WE'D ALWAYS NEED TO, BUT JUST IF THERE'S A QUESTION ABOUT IT. ABSOLUTELY. AND YOU KNOW, THE HYDROLOGY CAN ALSO BE MODIFIED IF YOU WANNA INCLUDE SOME DIFFERENT HYDROLOGY AND RUNOFF CHARACTERISTICS. UM, YOU COULD GO AS FINE AS YOU WANT WITH THE SCALE, BUT THE 154 SUBBASINS IS THE STARTING POINT. BUT WE, WE'VE DONE PROJECTS IN THE PAST WITH THE XP STORM MODEL DOING THAT SORT OF THING AND, AND HCC RAS IS EVEN EASIER. OH, WOW. ALRIGHT. AND ONE OF THE THINGS THAT YOU HA THAT YOU WON'T SEE WITH THIS PARTICULAR PRESENTATION, BUT YOU SHOULD KNOW, IS, UM, AN AMAZING PIECE OF THIS MODEL AND THE TOOL ITSELF IS THAT IT'S, UM, IT'S AN, WE CAN DO AN ANIMATION, WE CAN, WE CAN SET UP THE ANIMATION TO START OVER A 24 HOUR PERIOD WITH, WITH GIVEN, [01:50:01] UH, RAINFALL DATA AND, UM, CLICK RUN AND WATCH ON THE COMPUTER SCREEN, THE VELOCITIES AND THE DEPTHS OF WATER AS THEY COME DOWN THE COME DOWN THE CREEKS AND, AND TO THE RIVER AND OVER THE FLOODPLAIN. AND, UH, IT, IT'S A, IT'S A TREMENDOUS PLANNING TOOL AND I THINK WE HAVE USED IT FOR, UH, UH, COMING TO MIND. UM, THE, THE CASA THE SUBDIVISION ON CASA GRANDE. I FEEL LIKE WE USED IT FOR THAT AND I FEEL LIKE WE USED IT WHEN WE WERE LOOKING AT, UM, A SUBDIVISION, UH, OFF OF CORONA. UH, WHEN WE WERE LOOKING AT THAT A NUMBER OF YEARS AGO, THE PROJECT DIDN'T GO MM-HMM. THROUGH AND IT DIDN'T GO TO COMPLETION, BUT, SO WE HAVE USED IT AS A TOOL WORKING WITH WEST ON SPECIFIC PROJECTS WHEN THERE WAS A NEED TO REALLY DRILL INTO THOSE ISSUES AND LOOK AT 'EM WITH THE MODEL. SO IT'LL CONTINUE TO BE A TOOL WE CAN USE AS, AS APPROPRIATE. EXCELLENT. UH, NOTHING LIKE HAVING A FEDERAL AND FRANKLY DEFENSE DEPARTMENT TOOL THAT, YOU KNOW, WILL BE CONSTANTLY UPDATED FREE OF COST FROM A YEAH. UM, AND THEN I DID HAVE A QUESTION ABOUT, AND, AND MAYBE I AM MISUNDERSTANDING JUST HOW THE INTERPOLATION WORKS OF ADDING SEA LEVEL RISE TO THE ACTUAL RAIN FLOW AND FLOOD MODEL. HAVE YOU, HAVE YOU REACHED A POINT IN TERMS OF TESTING THIS OUT WHERE THAT KIND OF THE, THE ADDED DATA SETS AND THE ADDED CONDITIONS, WHICH AS YOU'VE NOTED IS KIND OF THIS EXTRA HYBRID ATTACHMENT COMPARED TO HOW OTHERS USE IT. UH, HAVE YOU REACHED A POINT WHERE YOU'VE GOTTEN TO THE FUNCTIONAL LIMIT OF THE MODEL'S EFFICACY WHERE YOU'RE LIKE, OKAY, NOW IT'S PUTTING OUT WEIRD, WEIRD MODELS THAT WE CLEARLY KNOW ARE OFF. I I THINK DAVE CAN SPEAK TO THIS, BUT THAT'S WAS ABSOLUTELY PART OF THE CALIBRATION PROCESS IS, IS TESTING, UH, TESTING CONDITIONS AND SEEING, MAKING SURE THAT THE MODEL WAS BEHAVING RIGHT. AND THAT WAS AN ITERATIVE PROCESS THAT TOOK MANY, MANY DAYS. EVERY, EVERY HOW LONG WERE THOSE COMPUTER RUNS ON THE MODEL THEY TAKE FOREVER. AND, YOU KNOW, WE BOUGHT MACHINES JUST FOR THIS PROJECT REALLY TO, TO MAKE SURE THAT WE COULD RUN IT IN A REASONABLE AMOUNT OF TIME. THEY'RE CALLED WORKSTATIONS INSTEAD OF JUST A LAPTOP OR DESKTOP. MM-HMM. WITH LIKE LOTS OF CORES AND LOTS OF MEMORY. UH, IT TAKES 24 HOURS OF TIME TO RUN A 24 HOUR RUN . SO IT'S BASICALLY HOUR FOR HOUR, MINUTE FOR MINUTE IS HOW LONG IT TAKES TO RUN. SO IT IS FAIRLY ANNOYING IN THAT SENSE, BUT THAT'S JUST BECAUSE WE ADDED SO MUCH GRANULARITY WITH ALL THE CELLS AND ALL THE DETAIL. UM, BUT IT, IT GIVES WORTHWHILE RESULTS FOR SURE. BUT NO, I DON'T THINK THERE'S NECESSARILY A LIMIT THAT WE'RE REACHING WITH, YOU KNOW, WHAT THE MODEL CAN, UM, CAN DO WITH ITS USEFULNESS WITH ALL THESE RUNS. I MEAN I HAVE, UH, PROBABLY MORE THAN 20, 30 RUNS THAT I CAN PULL UP. UM, AND, AND WE CAN LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, WHAT ABOUT THIS LEVEL RISE LEVEL, WHAT ABOUT THIS ONE? WHAT ABOUT THAT ONE? WHAT DO WE, YOU KNOW, INCREASE THE IMPERIOUSNESS OR WHAT HAVE YOU? AND WE'VE DONE THOSE RUNS AND WE HAVE A REALLY GOOD FEEL FOR THE TOOL AND, UM, I THINK, I THINK IT'S GONNA BE A USEFUL TOOL FOR THE CITY GOING FORWARD. GOT IT. SO THEN IT'S, AND BECAUSE THE REASON I'M ASKING THIS, THERE WASN'T A TREND THAT POPPED UP WHERE YOU WENT, OH, HERE'S A NOTICE NOTICEABLE BLIND SPOT THAT WE CAN'T, WE CAN'T ACCOUNT FOR THAT WE HAVE TO CONSIDER IF WE'RE APPLYING IT TO OUR DOCUMENTATION. I, I THINK THE ONLY THING THAT FALLS IN THAT CATEGORY IS THE RUNTIME ITSELF. IT IS GETTING TO A POINT WHERE, UH, IT ANY LONGER AND WE'D REALLY BE SWEATING BULLETS, BUT I THINK IT'S STILL DOABLE . BUT, UH, YEAH, WE, WE PROBABLY DON'T WANNA EXPAND THE MODEL FURTHER DOWNSTREAM OR ANYTHING JUST TO KEEP IT, UM, YOU KNOW, THE BOUNDARY RIGHT NOW IS, UH, JUST DOWNSTREAM OF ADOBE CREEK. UH, WE HAVE SOME GRAPHICS THAT WE PREPARED FURTHER DOWNSTREAM THAN THAT, UH, THAT WE ACTUALLY DID CREATE ANOTHER MODEL IN THAT DOWNSTREAM AREA JUST TO FILL IT IN LIKE A BATHTUB TO SHOW WHAT THIS TIDE LEVEL LOOKS LIKE ON THE MAP. INTERESTING. OKAY. SO I'LL ADD IN THAT THERE IS ONE LIMITATION THAT IF I HAD ALL MY DREAMS , THE MODEL WOULD BE ABLE TO DO, WOULD BE, SO THIS MODEL CURRENTLY DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE OPERATION OF THE CITY'S STORMWATER INFRASTRUCTURE. IT DOES NOT KNOW WHERE THE STORM DRAIN INLETS ARE, UH, HOW BIG THE PIPE IS, WHERE THE PUMP STATION IS, IS THAT STORM DRAINED, INLET CLOGGED WITH LEAVES? 'CAUSE THE 4-YEAR-OLD WAS PLAYING THERE. IT CAN'T KNOW THOSE THINGS. RIGHT? UH, THEORETICALLY YOU COULD MODEL IN EVERY CULVERT AND PIPE MM-HMM. THAT EXISTS IN THE CITY. IT WOULD BE A NIGHTMARE OF THE MODEL. AND WE'D GO, YOU'D PUT A LOT OF MONEY INTO THAT AND YOU'D TAKE THE RUNTIME THAT, YOU KNOW, THE [01:55:01] RUNTIME WOULD GO FROM 24 HOURS TO I DON'T KNOW HOW MANY DAYS. MM-HMM. . AND SO THAT'S WHERE WE'RE KIND OF HITTING THE LIMITATION OF THERE'S ONLY SO MUCH DATA AND DETAIL YOU WANT TO PUT INTO THE MODEL. SURE. BECAUSE AT SOME POINT IT'S JUST NOT WORTH THE INVESTMENT. AND SO THIS MODEL WILL SHOW SOME THINGS LIKE, UH, IT MIGHT SHOW A LOCALIZED FLOODING IN A LOCATION 'CAUSE IT DOESN'T KNOW THERE'S A STORMWATER LIFT STATION THERE THAT HAS THE CAPACITY TO MOVE THIS MANY GALLONS OF WATER PERMITTED. THE MODEL DOESN'T KNOW THAT. AND IT ALSO FOR SAFETY, WE KIND OF HAVE TO ASSUME THAT THAT SYSTEM'S NOT WORKING RIGHT DURING THE CRITICAL MOMENT. SO THAT'S WHERE THERE ARE NUANCES TO THE REALLY SITE SPECIFIC RESPONSE. UH, THE SITE SPECIFIC FLOOD CONDITIONS THAT THIS THING MIGHT NOT KNOW. UH, AND WE'LL LOOK AT THAT IN THINGS LIKE THE KING TIDE. 'CAUSE YOU KNOW, OR OR IN THE STORM SURGE MAPS, WE, WE, IT'S THIS BATHTUB METHOD, RIGHT? THE WATER LEVEL IN THE RIVER IS THIS HIGH. AND WE THINK ANYTHING IN THE CITY LOWER THAN THAT FLOODS, EVEN IF IT'S FAR FROM THE RIVER. AND YOU MIGHT SAY, WELL, HOW IS THE WATER GETTING THERE? WELL, WE'RE ASSUMING THAT IT'S PROBABLY A STORM DRAIN SOMEWHERE AND IT'S GONNA RUN BACKWARDS AND IT'S GONNA ARTESIAN OUT OF THE, OUT OF THE, THE STORM SUIT, THE STORM DRAIN INLET AND IT'LL FLOOD THAT PART OF THE STREET, WE'RE ASSUMING. 'CAUSE THE MODEL DOESN'T KNOW IF THERE IS A DRAIN THERE OR NOT. IT DOESN'T KNOW THAT THAT DRAIN HAS A ONE-WAY VALVE ON IT THAT PREVENTS, UH, THE TIDE FROM GOING BACKWARDS UP THE PIPE. SO THERE, THERE IS A CERTAIN AMOUNT OF DETAIL THAT THE MODEL DOESN'T HAVE RIGHT NOW, UH, THAT A FEMA MAP DOESN'T WANT TO KNOW ABOUT. RIGHT. THEY DON'T WANT THAT MUCH DETAIL AND THAT IT'S QUESTIONABLE IF YOU WANT TO ADD THAT MUCH, UH, DETAIL. AND, AND, AND WE DID SORT OF LOOK AT LIKE, WHAT HAVE WE ADDED SOME KIND OF PIPE, LIKE A CULVERT, UH, IN AN AREA WHERE THERE'S A STORM DRAIN INLET AND THE BON THE MODEL WAS SHOWING WATER PONDING UP. UH, WE, WE LOOKED AT THAT AND WE ACTUALLY FOUND ON MANY OF THEM THAT IT DIDN'T HAVE ANYWHERE TO DRAIN BECAUSE THE RIVER WAS AT THE SAME LEVEL . AND SO WHETHER YOU PUT THE PIPE IN OR NOT, IT'S NOT FLOWING. UM, AND ONE OTHER THING TO ADD IS THAT, YOU KNOW, THE, UH, HEC IS TALKING ABOUT ADDING STORM DRAIN CAPABILITY INTO HEC WRAPS. AND THAT IS COMING IN THE, IN A FEW YEARS I BELIEVE. SO IF THERE WAS A DESIRE LATER TO PUT THOSE STORM DRAINS IN, YOU'LL, YOU'LL HAVE A CHANCE TO DO THAT. AND, AND NOT THAT, AND CLEARLY NOT THAT THIS BLIND SPOT IS A HUGE ISSUE OR EVEN MUCH OF A BLIND SPOT, BUT I TAKE IT PART OF THE ISSUE THERE TOO IS WITH SO FEW CITIES DOING WHAT WE'RE DOING AT THE MOMENT, THERE'S JUST NOT A LARGE ENOUGH DATA SET FOR HCC TO GO, OH, THIS IS THE KIND OF STANDARD ADD-ON FOR THIS MUCH STORM DRAIN ACTIVITY OR THIS KIND OF NETWORK OR SYSTEM THAT COULD EASE THE PROCESSING TIME. NO, I THINK, I THINK THEY'VE HEARD THE CRY, UH, IN GENERAL FOR FOLKS THAT REALLY WANNA BE ABLE TO DO STORM DRAINS IN A 2D MODEL AND, AND THEY'RE GONNA ADD IT, UH, AND THEY'RE GONNA USE IT FOR FEDERAL PROJECTS, OTHERWISE THEY WOULDN'T BE ADDING IT. SO THEY, THEY DO SEE THE, THE NEED FOR THAT AND THEY'RE WORKING ON IT. OKAY. EXCELLENT. UM, AND I'M, I'M ALMOST DONE. I REALIZE I'VE GONE A LITTLE WHILE. UH, I JUST WANTED TO ASK FOR THE CALIFORNIA OCEAN PROTECTION COUNCIL GUIDANCE, HOW OFTEN IS THAT UPDATED AND WHO REGULATES THAT? SO, UH, OPC IS THROUGH THE GOVERNOR'S OFFICE. IT'S A NUMBER OF STATE RESOURCE AGENCIES AND PLANNING, UH, AGENCIES. AND ADDITIONALLY, UH, A NUMBER OF UNIVERSITIES TOO. UH, SCRIPPS IS ONE OF THE, YOU KNOW, THEY'RE DOING A LOT OF THE WORK ON, ON, UH, SEA LEVEL RISE, UM, IN TERMS OF THEIR UPDATE SCHEDULE. LAST WAS, UH, 18. THEY ARE RELEASING, THEY INTEND TO RELEASE, UH, THEIR 2024 GUIDANCE THIS YEAR. THEY JUST IN JA END OF JANUARY RELEASED THE DRAFT GUIDANCE, WHICH IS PRETTY DRAFT FORM. WE'RE GONNA TALK ABOUT IT AT THE END OF THE MEETING. IT'S, IT'S, UH, IT'S ACTUALLY PRETTY HOPEFUL. IT WAS SURPRISING IT WASN'T AS BAD. UH, THE, THE PREDICTIONS WERE NOT AS DEPRESSING AS I WAS EXPECTING THEM TO BE. SO WE'LL LOOK AT THAT LATER. UM, AND THEY INTEND TO CONTINUE ON FIVE YEAR CYCLES OF UPDATING THE GUIDANCE. THEY, ONE OF THE QUESTIONS THAT CAME UP IN COMMUNITY MEETINGS WAS, OH, WELL IS THIS CONSIDERING THE, THE FEDERAL GUIDANCE THAT CAME OUT IN 2022 IS THIS CONSIDERING THE IPCC INTER GOVERNMENTAL PANEL CLIMATE CHANGE SIX, UH, GUIDANCE. WE AS A CITY, WE WOULDN'T WANT, WE WOULDN'T DIRECTLY INTERFACE WITH THOSE. THERE'S A, THERE'S A PROCESS THERE. IPC GOES TO THE FEDS. THE FEDS DO THEIRS, CALIFORNIA DOES THEIRS. AND THEN WE TAKE CALIFORNIA'S, AND IDEALLY WE WOULD ALSO, AND AS WE ARE, BE IN ALIGNMENT WITH WHAT OUR REGIONAL PLANNING AUTHORITIES, OUR REGIONAL GUIDANCE ON THIS WOULD BE. AND THAT'S MOSTLY COMING THROUGH. UH, BCDC. MM-HMM, . OKAY. UH, AND THEN I JUST HAVE ONE MORE QUESTION AND, UH, HEATHER, I ALSO [02:00:01] AT THE START OF THIS HAD A, A LOT OF POLICY SPECIFIC QUESTIONS. I JUST WANTED TO RECONFIRM, 'CAUSE I KNOW WE'RE GONNA HAVE SECOND ROUND OF PRESENTATION AND MORE QUESTIONS TO FOLLOW. YOU REALLY DON'T WANT US DIVING INTO THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS YET REALLY FOCUSING ON QUESTIONS FOR THE MODEL, THE DATA, WHICH WILL PROBABLY HELP STAFF THE MOST AHEAD OF THAT PROCESS, RIGHT? THAT'S CORRECT. OKAY. AND WE WILL, THE, THE POLICY FRAMEWORKS WILL BE BEING RELEASED. THEY WERE BASED ON THIS DATA, THIS FOUNDATION, LOTS OF DISCUSSION WITH THE, ALL THE TEAM MEMBERS THAT YOU SEE HERE TONIGHT THAT WILL BE COMING OUT, LIKE I SAID, IN THE NEXT MONTH OR SO. UM, AND THAT WILL THEN THERE WILL BE LOTS OF ENGAGEMENT ON THOSE POLICY FRAMEWORKS TO GET INPUT ON THAT. UNDERSTOOD. ROGER, ONE QUESTION. UM, WHAT, WHAT HAPPENS TO THE PROJECTS THAT ARE IN THE HOPPER THAT ARE MOVING THROUGH THE PLANNING COMMISSION THAT ARE IN ONE CASE ON THE RIVER, UH, I DON'T KNOW WHAT THE BASIS FOR THEIR FEMA HEIGHT IS, OR WILL THAT CHANGE LIKELY CHANGE OR HOW DO WE DEAL WITH THAT? WELL, I'LL, I'LL START THIS, BUT PLEASE JUMP IN. SO, COUPLE THINGS. ONE IS THE PROCESS WITH FEMA TO CHANGE THE, UH, THE FIRM. UH, THE MAPS WITH FEMA IS A NEXT PHASE AND IT WILL TAKE A COUPLE OF YEARS. MM-HMM, . SO THE, THIS IS MODELING, THIS IS, YOU KNOW, WE'RE, WE'RE TRYING TO USE THIS IN OUR PLANNING DOCUMENTS. THERE WILL BE A SUBSEQUENT PROCESS, UH, THAT WE GO THROUGH UPDATING OUR FIRM THROUGH THE FEMA, WHICH THEN CHANGES OUR FLOOD PLAIN AS RECOGNIZED BY FEMA. CURRENTLY ARE THE REGULATIONS ON THE BOOKS WITH PETALUMA ARE BASED ON THE CURRENT FIRM MAPS. UM, WE HAVE BEEN WORKING WITH SPECIFIC PROJECTS SUCH AS OYSTER COVE. THEY WENT KIND OF ABOVE AND BEYOND AND DID SOME STUDIES ABOUT SEA LEVEL RISE AND SOME OF, UM, ADAPTING THEIR DESIGN FOR THE PROJECTED SEA LEVEL RISE IN THAT AREA USING DATA AVAILABLE. SO WE HAVE BEEN TRYING TO WORK WITH THE INDIVIDUAL APPLICANTS AS THEY COME THROUGH, ESPECIALLY WHEN THEY'RE IN AN AREA THAT WE KNOW, UM, IS PARTICULARLY SUSCEPTIBLE. AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO DO THAT. ONE OF THE THINGS, AND YOU'LL SEE THIS WITH THE POLICY FRAMEWORKS THAT COME OUT, IS WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WHEN WE ADOPT THE GENERAL PLAN, THAT WE ARE AT THAT TIME ADOPTING NEW GUIDELINES SO THAT IN THE CASE AND I, I'M REALLY HOPING THIS DOESN'T HAPPEN AND WE'RE DOING EVERYTHING WE CAN TO NOT HAVE THIS HAPPEN. MM-HMM. IF THERE'S A LAG BETWEEN ADOPTION OF THE GENERAL PLAN AND UPDATE TO THE ZONING CODE, WE, WE DON'T, WE'RE NOT AT A LOSS FOR THOSE INCREASE REGULATIONS AND STANDARDS AROUND FLOODING SEA LEVEL RISE. SO WHAT YOU WILL SEE, AND WE'RE STILL TINKERING WITH AND WORKING ON, ARE SOME ENHANCED, INCREASED REGULATIONS FOR PROPERTIES THAT ARE IN FLOOD AREAS OR SEA LEVEL RISE. UM, AND IT'S A KIND OF A COMPLICATED METRIC, UM, TO FIGURE OUT WHAT TO DO WHERE, BUT WE HAVE BEEN WORKING ON THAT, AND YOU'LL SEE THAT IN THE POLICY FRAMEWORK SO THAT WHEN THE GENERAL PLAN IS ADOPTED, THOSE ARE IN PLACE AS A KIND OF A HOLDING PLACE UNTIL THE ZONING CODE GETS UPDATED. I, I THINK I, I COULD JUST ADD THAT WHILE, WHILE THE, THE FEMA MAPPING WON'T BE, UM, WON'T BE OFFICIALLY UPDATED, WON'T BE ADOPTED AND ACCEPTED BY FEMA PROBABLY FOR ANOTHER TWO YEARS, 18 MONTHS WOULD BE THE OPTIMISTIC, UH, GUESS. BUT I'M NOT GOING THERE. IT TAKES A WHILE TO DO THAT, BUT IN THE MEANTIME, WE HAVE, WE HAVE BETTER INFORMATION, WE HAVE BETTER DATA, AND WE WANNA BE ABLE TO USE THAT. AND SO THERE'S NOTHING THAT PREVENTS THIS JURISDICTION OR ANY JURISDICTION FROM, UH, FROM USING A HIGHER STANDARD THAN FEMA. AND, AND THAT'S WHAT WILL BE PART OF YOUR POLICY DISCUSSION AND PART OF OUR RECOMMENDATIONS COMING FORWARD. THANK YOU, ANDREW. SURE. SHERIFF, I MIGHT HAVE PULLED UP THE, UH, STAFF REPORT FROM THE MAY, 2020, UH, THREE REVIEW OF, UM, OYSTER COVE. AND I JUST WANNA READ THROUGH THE STRATEGIES THAT THEY'RE IMPLEMENTING TO ADDRESS SEA LEVEL RISE, BECAUSE I THINK AFTER THIS EVENING'S PRESENTATION, IT WILL PROBABLY [02:05:01] RESONATE WITH YOU DIFFERENTLY THAN IT DID, UM, IN MAY OF LAST YEAR. SO, UH, THEY, THEY'RE IMPLEMENTING THE FOLLOWING STRATEGIES. SITE DESIGN AND PROPOSED ELEVATIONS FOR OYSTER COVE ARE ALIGNED WITH THE SEA LEVEL RISE PLANNING AND IN PLACE PROTECTION SOLUTIONS DISCUSSED IN THE CITY OF PETALUMA'S GENERAL PLAN UPDATE SEA LEVEL RISE IN CLIMATE CHANGE WHITE PAPER. THE PROJECT HAS STUDIED THE POTENTIAL RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH VARIOUS SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS THAT ARE ADVISED TO BE EVALUATED IN THE STATE OF CALIFORNIA SEA LEVEL RISE GUIDANCE. THE PROJECT IS UTILIZING A SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO BASED UPON THE 2100 MEDIUM HIGH RISK AVERSION MODEL WITH 6.6 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE WITH MEAN HIGH, HIGH WATER, AND 100 YEAR STORM SURGE CONDITIONS. THE PROJECT UTILIZED THE OUR COAST, OUR FUTURE VIEWER, TO ESTABLISH THE MINIMUM ELEVATION FOR THE FUTURE BUILDINGS TO BE AT OR ABOVE THE FUTURE WATER SURFACE ELEVATION AND AVOID INUNDATION ESTIMATED IN THE 2100 SEA LEVEL RISE SCENARIO WITH 100 YEAR STORM SURGE. THIS MINIMUM ELEVATION IS 14 FEET. ALL PROPOSED BUILDINGS WILL HAVE A GROUND LEVEL ELEVATION OF 14 FEET OR HIGHER TO PROVIDE END OF CENTURY PROTECTION AGAINST FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE. THE TRAIL SYSTEM AROUND THE PERIMETER OF THE SITE WILL BE DESIGNED WITH THE CAPACITY TO ALLOW FOR FUTURE ADAPTIVE MEASURES, SUCH AS RAISING THE TRAIL CONSTRUCTION OF FLOOD WALLS, ET CETERA, TO PROVIDE THE ABILITY TO ADAPT IN THE FUTURE AND PROTECT THE SITE IF SEA LEVEL RISE EXCEEDS CURRENT 2100 PROJECTIONS. AND THEN FINALLY, THE FINAL BUILDING DESIGN OF THE OYSTER SHED WILL MEET CITY REQUIREMENTS FOR THE RENOVATION OF EXISTING STRUCTURES WITHIN FLOOD ZONES. SO VERY, VERY REAL PRACTICAL EXAMPLE. MM-HMM. OF HOW IT'S REFERENCING SOME OF THE DATA AND MODELING AND SO FORTH. MM-HMM. TO, UM, UH, TO, TO RESPOND THROUGH DESIGN SOLUTIONS TO THE PROJECT'S LOCATION AND POTENTIAL CONDITIONS. AND THAT'S A BEAUTIFUL CONFIRMATION OF THAT KIND OF STOP GAP PROCESS OF BRINGING PROJECTS FORWARD TO WHAT WE HAVEN'T ESTABLISHED YET, BUT STILL GETTING THAT DONE. UM, I'VE RECEIVED AT LEAST ONE NOTE AND NOW THREE TEXTS, UH, ASKING FOR A BIO BREAK. SO I'M GONNA SET THAT WE HAVE A FIVE MINUTE BREAK BEFORE WE CONTINUE THE PRESENTATION. UH, WE'LL BE BACK IN FIVE MINUTES. THANK YOU EVERYONE IN THE AFTERNOON. SO JUST TRYING TO CATCH UP. UH, WE ARE, WE ARE BACK. I, I THINK EVERYONE'S BACK AND READY TO GO. UM, WE HAD ONE MORE MODELING QUESTION FROM DARREN, AND THEN WE'LL GO TO THE NEXT STEP OF THE PRESENTATION. YEAH, MY QUESTION REALLY, I THINK IS EMBODIED BY THE, UH, 3,300 FEET OF FLOOD WALL IN THE PAY RENT REACH AREA. WHEN YOU HAVE A PHYSICAL FLOOD PREVENTION MEASURE LIKE THAT, HOW MUCH CAPACITY IS THERE IN THE MODEL TO PROJECT, YOU KNOW, IF THERE'S LAND USE CHANGES AROUND THAT. UM, THE SUFFICIENCY, I, I DON'T KNOW THAT YOU COULD STRESS TEST THAT IN THE MODEL, BUT CAN WE GET CLOSE? IS THAT KIND OF THING POSSIBLE? DAVE ? YEAH, WE INCLUDED THE FLOOD WALL IN THE MODEL AS A PHYSICAL FEATURE. UM, AND IT'S INTERESTING BECAUSE THE MODEL WILL SHOW IF THERE'S A SUPER HIGH FLOOD THAT WE'RE MODELING, IT'LL SHOW WHERE WATER GETS OUT AND HOW IT SORT OF GETS BEHIND THE FLOOD WALL, WHICH IS VERY INTERESTING, SORT OF YOUR WEEKS, WEEKS WEAK SPOT, SO TO SPEAK. UM, AND SO YEAH, WE'VE DONE SIMULATIONS WHERE WE'VE KIND OF TURNED THAT UP TO SEE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN, UH, AND IT'S REALLY GOOD FOR THAT. UM, AND YEAH, REGARDING LIKE THE FLOODING BEHIND THE WALL, WE ARE AWARE, UH, OF PUMP STATIONS AND WHERE THEY'RE LOCATED, AND WE CAN INCLUDE THOSE IN THE MODEL AS WELL. I BELIEVE WE DID, I BELIEVE THE FLOOD, THE PUMP STATIONS ARE PART OF THE MODEL, AND SO I'D IMAGINE IF WE CHANGED SOME OF THE LAND USES IN THAT SURROUNDING AREA, THAT MODEL WOULD BE PRETTY ACCURATE IN SEEING HOW THAT WOULD AFFECT THE EFFICACY OF THE FLOOD WALL. YES. MM-HMM, . ALRIGHT. IF THERE ARE ANOTHER QUESTIONS, WE'LL MOVE ON TO THE SECOND PHASE OF THE PRESENTATION. OKAY, THANKS. SO, UM, NOW WE'VE GOT THE BIG REVEAL. NOW WE'RE GONNA SHARE SOME OF THESE MAPS. UM, THE RESOLUTION THAT YOU'LL BE SEEING IS PRETTY GOOD QUALITY, BUT WE HAVE MONITORS FAR AWAY. AND SO I, WHAT I WANT TO PREFACE MY REMARKS WITH IS POINTING OUT THAT THESE MAPS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE, UH, ON THE PLAN PETALUMA WEBSITE. THAT'S THE GENERAL PLAN ADVISORY WEBSITE, OR I'M SORRY, GENERAL PLAN UPDATE WEBSITE. AND, UM, UH, AT SOME POINT IN THE NOT TOO DISTANT FUTURE, UH, UH, AS THESE DRAFTS ARE, UM, ARE REVIEWED AND COMMENTS AND FEEDBACK TAKEN IN AND, UH, A LITTLE BIT FURTHER REFINEMENT AS WE DEVELOP THEM, [02:10:01] ULTIMATELY, THEY WILL BE GIS MAPS AND THEY WILL BE INTERACTIVE GIS MAPS, UH, ON THE CITY'S WEBSITE. WE'RE NOT QUITE THERE YET, BUT THAT, UH, ISN'T THAT FAR AWAY. AND, AND THOSE MAPS, YOU'LL ULTIMATELY BE ABLE TO TURN LAYERS ON AND OFF, YOU KNOW, TAKE AND, UM, AND MANIPULATE POINT, YOU KNOW, PICK UP, PICK A PROPERTY AND CHECK IT OUT, UM, AT HIGH RESOLUTION. SO, UM, THAT IS PART OF OUR, PART OF OUR PROCESS, AND, UM, AND THAT'S ON THE HORIZON. SO WITH THAT SAID, I AM GONNA SHARE WITH YOU, UH, LET'S SEE HERE. OOPS, I HAVE TO SHARE. SORRY. THERE WE GO. I AM GOING TO SHARE WITH YOU WHAT SHOULD BE A FAMILIAR MAP TO MANY OF YOU. THIS IS CURRENT FEMA ONE, WHAT WE CALL THE COLLOQUIALLY THE 100 YEAR, UH, FLOODPLAIN MAP. AND, AND THIS IS WHAT IS, UH, WHAT WHAT IS REPRESENTED, UH, TO FEMA IS THE, IT, UH, IS THE FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP FOR THE 100 YEAR FLOODPLAIN. IT'S WHAT WE USE, UH, AS, AS, UH, THE BASIS FOR OUR, UM, UH, ZONING ORDINANCE AND POLICIES AROUND THE FLOODPLAIN. SO, UM, THIS IS THE CURRENT MAP, AND IT'S WHAT WE USE EVERY DAY, ALL DAY LONG RIGHT NOW. AND IT'S ALSO WHAT, UH, DEFINES OUR FLOODPLAIN FOR THE CRS PROGRAM AND, UH, AND OUR PLANNING WORK. AND SO, LET'S SEE HERE, WHAT DO WE HAVE UP FIRST? UH, OH, NOT ADVANCING. HERE WE GO. SORRY, GINA. UM, GOING BACK, WHAT'S THE BLUE VERSUS THE CROSSHATCHED? UM, SO THE , IT LOOKS LIKE CROSSHATCHED, IF, IF, IF YOU COULD ZOOM IN. THOSE ARE STREETS, THE NO, AT THE UPPER LEFT AND LOWER RIGHT, THEY'RE LARGE AREAS THAT ARE CROSS HATCHED. OH, IN HERE? IS THAT AND DOWN HERE? YEAH. IS THAT THE FLOODWAY VERSUS FLOOD PLAIN GINA? THAT IS, YES. SO THE, THE SOLID BLUE, UH, ARE THE ACT IS THE CREEK AND THE RIVER, AND, AND THERE'S ACTUALLY HATCHING, IF YOU CAN LOOK UP HERE, YOU SEE THAT SAME HATCHING? MM-HMM. , UH, THIS IS ALL, THIS IS ALL THE, UM, ZONE AE OR THE A HUNDRED YEAR FLOOD THAT YOU'RE SEEING HERE, THIS, ALL THIS AREA DOWN HERE. AND THE FLOODWAY ITSELF, IT, IT LOOKS LIKE IN THIS VERSION OF THE MAP. WELL, HERE'S THE TURNING BASIN RIGHT HERE. SO HERE'S THE, HERE'S THE FLOODWAY. AND YOU'RE SEEING UPPER WATERSHED UP HERE. UH, MAYBE I SHOULD TRY AND GIVE YOU A COUPLE OF, UM, LET'S SEE HERE. IS WASHINGTON CROSSING 1 0 1? 1 0 1 IS THE RED LINE. HERE'S WASHINGTON. SO, UH, AND HERE'S DOWNTOWN OVER HERE. UH, WATER TREATMENT PLANT IS OVER HERE, SCHULLENBERGER, AND THEN THE NORTH END OF TOWN. UH, LET'S SEE. HERE'S THE, HERE WE GO. UP HERE IS OLD REDWOOD HIGHWAY, RIGHT IN HERE, THE GRAYING, UM, THE GRAY HATCHING IS THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THOSE TWO COLORS? MAYBE NOT. I DON'T THINK SO. I DON'T THINK THIS IS SHOWING THE, THERE'S HUNDREDS, NO, 500 ON THIS. SO THIS IS THE FIRST OF OUR, UM, OF OUR MAPS AND, AND WE'LL DO A LITTLE QUICK PRIMER ON HOW YOU READ THIS MAP. THERE'S A, UM, UH, UH, A ZOOMED IN VIEW THAT WILL BE COMING NEXT. I'M GONNA, I'M THE, THE FIRST THREE MAPS I'M GONNA SHARE WITH YOU, SHOW THE ENTIRE TOWN, AND ALSO SHOW THE, SOME OF THE, UH, UM, NORTHWEST, UM, UH, AREA THAT'S OUTSIDE THE CITY LIMITS, SOME [02:15:01] OF THE WATERSHED UP HERE. UM, AND WE'LL ZOOM IN ON THIS IN, IN A FEW MINUTES AND WE CAN SHOW, UH, A, A TIGHTER VIEW. UM, SO HEY, HEY, GINA. YEAH, UH, I, I JUST WENT ONLINE TO LOOK AT WHAT THOSE SHADED, THOSE CROSS HATCHED, UH, SHADED AREAS WERE, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THEY'RE AREAS WHERE IT'S A CONSTANT ELEVATION, UM, UH, A ZONE WITH AN ELEVATION, JUST TO ANSWER THAT PREVIOUS QUESTION. THANK YOU. THANKS. UM, SO THIS MAP SHOWS THE AREAS THAT HAVE A 1% CHANCE OF FLOODING EVERY YEAR. IF WE HAVE 1.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE, UH, IT SHOWS THE COMBINED AREAS OF STORM SURGE AND THE RAINFALL FLOODING ON ONE MAP. THEY DON'T HAPPEN ON THE SAME DAY, BUT THEY HAVE THE SAME CHANCE OF HAPPENING. THE CITY OUTLINES SHOWN IN ORANGE. UH, IT'S KIND OF HARD TO SEE HERE, BUT IS MY CURSOR UP THERE? YEAH. SO I, I TRIED TO POINT AN ARROW TO IT. YOU CAN KIND OF FOLLOW IT THROUGH HERE. HERE IT IS DOWN, COMING DOWN THE WEST SIDE, UP AROUND, AND THEN UP TO THE NORTH HERE AROUND OLD RED AND BACK AROUND. UM, MAJOR ROADS ARE BLACK. UH, THE DOWNTOWN AREA IS HERE. YOU CAN ALWAYS FIND THE DOWNTOWN ON, ON, ON ANY MAP, REALLY, UH, BY FINDING THAT LITTLE KNOB OF THE TURNING BASIN IS A GOOD LANDMARK, JUST SO YOU CAN SORT OF ORIENT YOURSELF ON THESE MAPS. UM, AND THEN, UH, 1 0 1 INTERCHANGE AT OLD RED AND BOULEVARD NORTH IS UP HERE. HERE'S THAT NORTH INTERCHANGE. AND, UM, AND THEN LAKEVILLE AT 1 0 1 IS RIGHT HERE. SO HERE'S, HERE'S 1 0 1 SNAKING UP THROUGH TOWN, AND HERE'S LAKEVILLE COMING ACROSS HERE. IT IS HEADING DOWN ON ITS WAY TO 37. SO HERE'S LAKEVILLE AND 1 0 1. UM, AND SCHOENBERGER IS, LET'S SEE, HERE'S OUR WATER TREATMENT FACILITY. HERE'S SCHOENBERGER RIGHT HERE. AND, UM, I THINK THAT'S GOOD FOR OUR LANDMARKS. SO ABOUT THE FLOODING AND WHAT WE'RE SHOWING IN THE MAP, FLOODING IS SHOWN BY SHADING IN THE MAP FROM THE SHALLOWEST FLOODING SHOWN IN YELLOW TO THE DEEPEST FLOODING SHOWN IN DARK BLUE AND GREEN. THE YELLOW SHADED AREAS ARE LESS THAN A HALF A FOOT OF FLOODING. SO SIX INCHES OR LESS IS YELLOW. THE SALMON COLOR IS UP TO ONE FOOT DEEP OF FLOOD. AND THEN FROM THE LIGHT BLUE TO DARK BLUE, IT RANGES FROM TWO FEET AT THE LIGHT BLUE, UP TO FIVE FOOT OF FLOODING AT THE DARK BLUE, AND THEN DEEPER THAN FIVE FEET. IS THIS, UH, IS THIS GREEN? SO, OF COURSE, THE, THE FLOODWAY ITSELF IS GONNA BE DARK GREEN. IT'S DEEPER THAN THE FIVE FEET. AND THERE ARE SOME AREAS HERE, YOU SEE, UM, SOME FLOODED AREAS DOWN THE SOUTH END OF TOWN. AND THIS IS UP OFF OF HERE. UH, THIS IS UP OFF OF 1 0 1 AND STONY POINT, UM, OUTSIDE OF TOWN. IS THAT TRUE? OH, SOME OF THIS IS IN TOWN. SORRY. THIS PIECE HERE IS INSIDE OF TOWN. THIS IS OUTSIDE. UM, THE MOST IMPORTANT THING THAT THIS CLUB MAP HAS TAUGHT US IS THAT ONE POINT, 1.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE ONLY CHANGES THE AREAS THAT HAVE A 1% CHANCE OF FLOODING FROM THE BOTTOM END OF THE CITY, UP TO ABOUT WASHINGTON STREET BRIDGE, UH, THE UP RIVER FROM WASHINGTON STREET BRIDGE AND UP THE CREEKS, THIS AMOUNT OF SEA LEVEL RISE PRETTY MUCH STOPS CAUSING EXTRA FLOODING DURING A RAINFALL EVENT OR A STORM SURGE. AND WE'LL ZOOM IN ON THIS, UH, AGAIN LATER. I'M GONNA GO NOW TO THE NEXT MAP, WHICH IS, UH, THE SAME, SAME TIME MID-CENTURY, SAME SEA LEVEL RISE, 1.9 FEET, BUT NOW WITH KING TIDE LAYERED ON. UM, SO THIS IS KING TIDE WITH 1.9 FOOT OF SEA LEVEL RISE, A VERY LOW PROBABILITY ONCE AGAIN BY MID-CENTURY. AND NOW YOU'LL NOTICE THAT YOU ONLY SEE THE YELLOW, BLUE-GREEN FLOODING IN THE CREEKS AND WETLANDS WITH A COUPLE OF NEW BREAKOUT AREAS. YOU ALSO NOTICE THE WETLANDS LOOK, UH, LIKE A LIGHTER BLUE THAN THE PREVIOUS MAN, BECAUSE THE FLOODINGS LESS, RIGHT? REMEMBER, KING TIDES HAPPEN EVERY YEAR. THERE'S, THERE'S NO 1% CHANCE OR 50% CHANCE. THIS IS A HUNDRED PERCENT CHANCE. WE KNOW THIS IS GONNA HAPPEN EVERY [02:20:01] YEAR, A FEW TIMES A YEAR. KING TIDES ARE, ARE IMPORTANT TO US FOR THAT REASON. UM, SO WE NEED TO PREPARE FOR IT DIFFERENTLY, UH, THAN WE WOULD A STORM THAT ONLY HAS A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. THAT'S WHY YOU SEE A LOT OF FOCUS ON KING TIDES, UH, IN, IN OUR MODEL WORK. AND THE NEXT MAP NOW IS MOVING OUT TO THE END OF CENTURY. UH, AND THIS IS OUR 3.4 FOOT, UH, SEA LEVEL RISE THAT'S SHOWN WITH THE 100 YEAR FLOOD. SO 1% CHANCE OF RAINFALL FLOODING, UH, WITH THE 3.4 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE. UM, THIS IS THE LARGEST AMOUNT OF SEA LEVEL RISE THE STATE THINKS WILL LIKELY HAPPEN BY THE END OF THE CENTURY. THIS ALSO ASSUMES, AND THIS IS REALLY IMPORTANT ON ALL THESE MAPS, IT ASSUMES GLOBAL GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS DO NOT GO DOWN, AND WE DO NOTHING TO PREPARE FOR FLOODS. UH, SO IT'S ASSUMING NOTHING HAS CHANGED. THIS IS THE END OF CENTURY, AND WE HAVEN'T PUT IN ANY FLOOD CONTROL PROJECTS. WE HAVEN'T DONE ANY ADAPTATION PROJECTS. THIS IS JUST AS IF WE'RE TAKING TODAY, LOOKING AT IT AT THE END OF THE CENTURY WITH A WHOLE BUNCH MORE WATER ON IT. AND, UM, AND SO IT, IT GETS TO BE A SCARY LOOKING MAP, AS YOU CAN SEE. UM, UH, AGAIN, UH, THE FLOODING IS SHOWN BY THE SAME SHADING WITH THE SHALLOWEST FLOODING LESS THAN SIX INCHES IN YELLOW. AND THEN, UH, THE DEEPEST DARK BLUE AND THE GREEN ARE, UH, AGAIN, BLUE IS UP TO FIVE FEET, AND THEN THAT GREEN IS FIVE FEET AND, AND OVER. UM, AND, UH, SO THE MAP SHOWS OBVIOUSLY MORE FLOODED AREAS, BUT MOST IMPORTANTLY, IT TAUGHT US THAT THE 3.4 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE ONLY CHANGES THE FLOOD MODEL FROM THE BOTTOM END OF THE CITY UP TO ABOUT THE PAYAN BRIDGE AND UP RIVER FROM THERE AND UP THE CREEKS. THIS AMOUNT OF SEA LEVEL RISE WILL NOT RESULT IN EXTRA FLOODING DURING A RAINFALL EVENT OR STORM SURGE. SO THE, THE IMPACTS ARE, ARE, UM, DEFINITELY FOCUSED, UH, TO, TO THOSE, UM, TO THOSE AREAS THAT, YOU KNOW, THE SEA LEVEL RISE REACHES SEA LEVEL RISE, JUST DOESN'T, THE IMPACTS DO NOT REACH THAT FAR UP THE RIVER. UM, IN THIS CASE, UM, REALLY NO CHANGES PAST PAY RAN. AND THEN, UM, NOW WE'RE, UM, NOW I'M GONNA COME BACK. UH, THIS LOOKS A LITTLE OUTTA ORDER TO ME. THOUGHT WE WANTED TO LOOK AT THAT ONE NEXT. NO, 3.4 KING. OH, SORRY. THIS IS, OKAY. UH, SO THIS IS END OF CENTURY, UM, STILL. SO AGAIN, WE'RE SOMEWHERE AROUND, UH, 20, 2100 AND, UH, THIS IS THE KING TIDE MAP NOW WHERE WE SEE THE HIGHEST TIDES OF THE YEAR, UM, THAT, UM, MIGHT FLOOD AT THE END OF THE CENTURY. YOU'LL SEE AGAIN SOME OF THE NEW AREAS OF FLOODING, MOSTLY ALONG FIRST STREET AND LAKEVILLE. SO FIRST STREET IS DOWN HERE. AND AGAIN, LAKEVILLE IN HERE. WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME FLOODING IN THESE AREAS THAT WE DIDN'T SEE IN THE OTHER MAPS. UM, UH, AGAIN, WE DON'T SEE THE, THE, THE FLOODING MOVING VERY FAR UP RIVER UP THE CREEKS. UH, AND SO, UH, THE, THE, UH, THE, THE LAST VERSION, UH, THAT I'M GONNA SHARE IS, IS THE SCARIEST OF THE MAPS. THIS IS THE WORST CASE THAT WE LOOKED AT. AND, UM, HERE WE GO. SO THIS IS END OF CENTURY, UH, UH, AGAIN, THE 100 YEAR, 1% STORM WITH 6.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE. AND WHAT WAS THE PERCENTAGE 0.5% LIKELIHOOD THAT, THAT WE WOULD, WE COULD POSSIBLY ANTICIPATE THIS, AGAIN, ASSUMING THAT NOTHING HAS BEEN DONE, UH, FOR MITIGATING GREENHOUSE GASES OR FOR DOING ANY ADAPTATION PROJECTS. SO IT'S LOOKING AT THE CITY PHYSICALLY LIKE IT IS TODAY, UH, WITH ALT, WITH NO CHANGE IN GREEN GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND, AND, UH, ADDING THE SEA LEVEL RISE OF 6.9 FEET. UH, THIS ALSO HAS THE STORM SURGE AS THE OTHERS DID. AND, UH, THIS IS A MAP THAT WE WILL NOT BE RECOMMENDING, UH, FOR USE WITH MOST PROJECTS. THIS WILL BE FOR, UM, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, UH, WHERE WE WANT TO BE AS CONSERVATIVE AS POSSIBLE BECAUSE [02:25:01] THEY AFFECT AND IMPACT PUBLIC SAFETY THE MOST. UM, AND THAT'S THE CONDITIONS WHERE WE WOULD, WE WOULD BE LOOKING TO, TO, UH, SUGGEST THESE MAPS FOR GUIDANCE. AND, UM, YOU KNOW, I DON'T EVEN KNOW WHERE TO START ON THIS MAP. UM, THIS IS KAYAKING DOWN PETALUMA BOULEVARD AND, UM, YOU KNOW, QUITE, QUITE A, UH, A LAKE DOWN HERE, THE SOUTH END OF TOWN. UM, THERE'S DEFINITELY SOME MORE, UM, I THINK I HAVE TO LOOK BACK. I HAVE TO COMPARE THIS IS THERE MUCH MORE UP HERE. UP TO THE WEIR? JUST UP TO THE WEIR. OKAY. SO, SO THIS ONE, WE'LL SEE SOME INCREASED FLOODING AS FAR AS THE WEIR. AND WHERE AM I THERE? RIGHT IN HERE? YEAH. TO HERE. LYNCH CREEK CONSULATES. YEAH, AT THE LYNCH WHERE LYNCH CREEK COMES INTO THE RIVER. AND THEN PAST THAT, THIS SHOULD LOOK PRETTY MUCH THE SAME AS THE 3.4 FOOT, UH, END OF CENTURY AS THE CURRENT, BASICALLY. YEAH. YEAH. SO, UM, AND I GUESS I'LL, I'LL JUMP IN THERE. YEAH, GO AHEAD. AND, UM, IN GOING BACK TO WHAT, WHAT INSTIGATED A LOT OF THIS CONCERN WAS THE SEA LEVEL RISE WHITE PAPER. IN THAT WE LOOKED AT THE AVAILABLE MAPPING, AND WE HAD MAPS FROM THE REGIONAL AUTHORITIES FROM OCOF THAT SAID, OKAY, STORM SURGE MIGHT BE COMING UP TO YOU, PLUS SEA LEVEL RISE THAT STARTS AFFECTING BIG PARTS OF THE CITY. AND WE PUT THOSE MAPS INTO THAT REPORT. BUT IN THE REPORT WE POINTED OUT, WE DON'T KNOW HOW MUCH EFFECT THAT HIGH RIVER HAS ON A BIG STORM COMING DOWN THE RIVER FROM, YOU KNOW, FROM PENNGROVE, FROM, FROM THE CONTRIBUTING WATERSHED. WE DIDN'T HAVE A MAP MAP. WE HAD A, A FEMA RAINFALL MAP, AND WE HAD A FUTURE SEA LEVEL RISE MAP, BUT WE DIDN'T HAVE ONE THAT SAID, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN RAIN HAPPENS DURING SEA LEVEL RISE? THAT WAS ONE OF THE NEEDS TO DO THIS. AND SO WE'RE REALLY FOCUSING IN ON THIS QUESTION OF WHERE DOES THE IMPACT OF SEA LEVEL RISE STOP? WHERE DOES IT STOP AFFECTING HOW RAIN GETS OUT OF THE CITY? AND SO AT THAT 1.9 MAP, IT SEEMS TO STOP AROUND WASHINGTON BRIDGE, UH, THE 3.4 MAP. IT SEEMS TO STOP AROUND, PAY RAN, BRIDGE, ANYTHING UP THERE DOESN'T MATTER THAT THERE WERE SEA LEVEL RISE. UH, THE RAIN WILL BEHAVE AS THE RAIN PRETTY MUCH HAS ALWAYS BEHAVED. UH, AND THIS MAP IS SHOWING THAT AT 6.9, THE RAIN HAS A HARDER TIME GETTING OUT AND IT CAUSES MORE FLOODING DOWNTOWN LAKEVILLE, UH, UP AT, YOU KNOW, UH, THE PI THE AREAS ON BOTH SIDES OF THE RIVER PAYAN PART OF PAY AND NEIGHBORHOOD MADISON. UH, BUT THEN THE EFFECT OF THAT SEA LEVEL RISE DURING A RAINSTORM STARTS PETERING OUT AROUND THE FLOOD CONTROL WE AND UPHILL OF THAT UP INTO DEADMAN. IT DOESN'T REALLY MATTER THAT THERE WAS A LOT OF SEA LEVEL RISE. THE RAIN JUST BEHAVES AS RAIN LIKE IT'S, UH, LIKE IT'S CURRENTLY DOING. UH, AND THE OTHER THING THAT'S GONNA LET US DO IS NOW WE CAN ZOOM IN BECAUSE AFTER WE DO THE PIG TIME, WE CAN ZOOM IN BECAUSE ALL THE STUFF IN THE UPPER WATERSHED, IT'S THE SAME. SO WE'RE GONNA BE ABLE TO GET A LITTLE BIT MORE DETAIL IN HERE. A THING TO CONSIDER, THOUGH, THESE MAPS ARE CONSIDERING SEA LEVEL RISE IN THE FUTURE, THEY, SO SEA LEVEL RISE AT THE END OF THE CENTURY, THEY DON'T CONSIDER HOW MUCH WORSE RAINFALL MIGHT BE AT THE END OF THE CENTURY, RIGHT? BECAUSE WE DIDN'T HAVE THAT DATA SET TO RELIABLY KNOW, IS IT 5% WORSE? IS IT 1% WORSE? IS IT 20% WORSE? THERE WAS A LOT OF DISJUNCTIVE AND, UH, THE DATA JUST WASN'T THERE TO BE ABLE TO RELIABLY PUT A NUMBER DOWN AND RUN THE MODEL. ALTHOUGH WE'RE REALLY EXPECTING THIS SUMMER LATER THIS YEAR TO GET, UH, GOOD ENOUGH GUIDANCE ON THAT, THAT WE'D HAVE THE OPPORTUNITY TO PLAY A ROAD, UH, WITH THE MODEL. AND I'M GLAD YOU MENTIONED THAT. THANK YOU. UH, AND THEN THIS MAP IS, UH, OUR END OF CENTURY WITH THE 6.9 FEET. SO AGAIN, OUR, OUR WORST CASE SCENARIO WITH KING TIDE. AND, UM, YOU KNOW, WE, WE SEE THE MAIN EFFECTS, UH, UP THROUGH DOWNTOWN AROUND WASHINGTON AND, UM, AND OF COURSE THE SOUTH END OF TOWN. AND, YOU KNOW, WHY, WHY ARE WE LOOKING AT THAT MAP? WHEN WOULD, YOU KNOW, PART OF OUR, OUR UPCOMING DISCUSSIONS WILL BE, WELL, WHAT MAPS ARE WE GONNA USE FOR, FOR, UM, UM, FOR LOOKING AT DIFFERENT PROJECTS, DIFFERENT DEVELOPMENTS? WHAT, WHAT DO WE USE FOR WHAT? AND, UM, AND [02:30:01] WE'RE GOING TO BE, UM, HAVING, WE'LL BRING FORWARD SOME SUGGESTIONS FOR CONSIDERATION ABOUT HOW TO USE THESE IN DIFFERENT SCENARIOS. AND, UH, UH, AGAIN, WE KNOW, AND I WANT EVERY, JUST THE, THE POINT I WANNA REMIND EVERYONE IS THAT THE KING TIDES WILL HAPPEN, UH, AND, UH, THAT STORM RAIN AND STORM SURGE HAS A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING. SO WE WANNA BE LOOKING AT BOTH OF THESE MAPS AS WE PLAN AHEAD. WE WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WE COVER THE CASE, UH, WHERE, WHERE WE KNOW THAT WE KNOW FOR SURE THAT WE'RE GONNA HAVE KING TIDES AND THEY'RE GONNA HIT EVERY YEAR. AND IT ISN'T ONE DAY A YEAR, IT'S NOT TWO DAYS A YEAR. THERE'S SOME, YOU KNOW, AROUND THE WORST DAY OF A KING TIDE THE DAY IS PROCEEDING AND FOLLOWING. IT ALSO HAS EXTREMELY HIGH TIDES. THOSE TIDES WILL VARY, YOU KNOW, BY A, A FEW INCHES. THEY'LL BE EXTREMELY HIGH. AND, AND THEN WE HAVE THAT OCCURRENCE, UM, CERTAINLY AT THE EQUINOXES, BUT, UM, SOMETIMES I THINK THERE'S, UH, THIRD AND FOURTH LESSER, UH, KING TIDE THAT, THAT WE GET HIT WITH. SO THERE, THEY'RE SURE AS HECK GONNA HAPPEN, AND WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THAT WE INCORPORATE THAT IN OUR THINKING AS WE PLAN AHEAD, UM, NOT JUST, NOT JUST THESE MAPS WITH, WITH THE, UM, 1%, UH, A HUNDRED YEAR STORM. AND WE'LL HAVE, WE'LL HAVE SOME, UH, SOME, I THINK THERE'LL BE SOME GOOD DISCUSSION AROUND THAT AND SOME GOOD SUGGESTIONS ABOUT HOW WE CAN TREAT THIS. AND THEN, UM, OKAY, SO, UH, THIS IS JUST GOING TO BE A, A ZOOM IN NOW OF THE SAME APPS WE JUST LOOKED AT. I JUST WANTED TO HAVE AN OPPORTUNITY FOR EVERYONE TO SEE, I'M GOING BACK TO THE BEGINNING NOW, BACK TO MID-CENTURY, THE 1.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE WITH RAIN AND STORM SURGE. AND THIS IS, THIS IS ZOOMED IN NOW, SO THAT, UM, WE'RE SEEING, UH, WE'RE SEEING, UH, DOWNTOWN, UH, AND HERE AND WASHINGTON STREET, UM, AT THE NORTH UPPER LEFT, UH, CORNER OF THE MAP. AND THEN WE'RE SEEING THE, UM, UH, HERE ARE THE TREATMENT PONDS FOR ELLIS CREEK WATER RECYCLING FACILITY. SO, AND HERE'S S SHE BERGER DOWN AT THE BOTTOM. SO, UM, UH, I'M GONNA, I'M GONNA REPEAT A LOT OF WHAT I SAID THE FIRST TIME IN THE MAP, AND I'M DOING IT JUST BECAUSE SOMETIMES HEARING THIS AS YOU'RE DIGESTING THE MAPS AND WHAT THEY MEAN, UH, IT CAN BE REALLY HELPFUL. SO THE MAP ONE IS SHOWING, AGAIN, THE 1% CHANCE OF FLOODING EVERY YEAR FROM RAIN AND STORM WITH 1.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE. THERE'S A VERY LOW PROBABILITY THAT WE'LL SEE THIS AMOUNT OF SEA LEVEL RISE BY MID-CENTURY. UH, AGAIN, 0.5% CHANCE, VERY, VERY LOW PROBABILITY. UM, SOME ADDITIONAL AREAS ARE SHOWN TO BE SUBJECT TO FLOODING BEYOND WHAT WE CURRENTLY KNOW TO BE AT FLOOD RISK DURING A HUNDRED YEAR RAIN OR STORM SURGE. UM, AND, UH, I DON'T KNOW, IS THERE ANYTHING ELSE YOU WANT TO ADD TO THIS ONE, SEBASTIAN? YEAH. LOOKING AT A COUPLE THINGS THAT JUMP OUT AS SCARY, IF YOU LOOK ON THE BOTTOM RIGHT, THOSE AT ELLIS CREEK, THOSE TREATMENT PONDS, WHY ARE THEY SHOWING US BLUE? BUT THERE'S A WHITE LINE AROUND THEM. IT'S BECAUSE THE WAY THE, THE LOWER PART OF THE RIVER WAS MODELED AS THIS BATHTUB WHERE WE CALCULATED THE HEIGHT OF THE STORM SURGE WATER ELEVATION, HOW HIGH IS THE RIVER? AND WE SAID ANYTHING IN THE CITY UNDER THAT ELEVATION WE CONSIDER TO BE FLOODED. WELL, HOW DID THE WATER GET INTO THAT BASIN? IT, IT DIDN'T GET OVER THE WALL, RIGHT? DIDN'T GET OVER THE LEVY. THE MODEL HAS TO BASICALLY ASSUME, WELL, THERE'S PROBABLY A PIPE CONNECTING THOSE, AND THERE IS IN FACT AN OUTFLOW FROM THOSE TREATMENT PONDS. UH, THE MODEL DOESN'T KNOW THAT THAT OUTFLOW HAS A CHECK VALVE, IT HAS A ONE WAY VALVE ON IT, OR THAT IN THE FUTURE, WE'D BE ABLE TO ADD A ONE WAY VALVE TO IT. SIMILARLY, IF YOU LOOK UP IN THE TOP LEFT ALONG LAKEVILLE, THERE'S A LOW LYING NEIGHBORHOOD THAT SHOWS FLOODING. UH, IT'S NOT CONNECTED TO THE RIVER OR A CREEK IN ANY WAY. WHERE DID THE WATER COME FROM? WE ASSUME, 'CAUSE IT'S A LOW LYING AREA, THAT, THAT STORM SURGE FOUND ITS WAY IN THERE THROUGH A STORM DRAIN SYSTEM. UH, WHICH AGAIN, THERE'S LIMITATIONS OF THE MODEL. IT MIGHT NOT KNOW THAT THERE IS ACTUALLY A ONE-WAY VALVE ON THAT SYSTEM, OR, SO WHAT WE'RE SAYING THERE IS BASICALLY WE DON'T KNOW IF THERE IS ONE, AND IF THERE IS ONE, WE ASSUME IT BROKE, HOW BAD, LIKE THIS IS HOW BAD IT COULD BE. SO AGAIN, TO THINK OF THESE MAPS AS THIS IS, IF WE DO NOTHING, THIS IS, IF WE DON'T HAVE PUMP STATIONS, THIS IS IF WE DON'T ADD [02:35:01] PUMP STATIONS OR ADD OTHER CONTROL SYSTEMS. UH, ANOTHER AREA YOU SEE BREAKOUT IS FIRST STREET. I THINK YOU GUYS HAVE EXPER, YOU KNOW, YOU'VE WALKED DOWN FIRST STREET AND YOU KNOW, MOST OF THE BUILDINGS THERE ARE ACTUALLY ELEVATED ON PLINTHS, MULTIPLE FEET OFF THE GROUND. SO HERE YOU SEE FLOODING IN THE STREET, BUT YOU DON'T SEE IT ON THE PARCELS OR UNDER THE BUILDINGS. SO THAT STARTS GETTING SOME, UH, SOME MORE DETAIL AS YOU ZOOM IN ON PARCEL SPECIFIC, THOUGH, WE'RE GETTING ZOOMED IN ENOUGH THAT YOU COULD START THINKING ABOUT, WELL, WHAT ABOUT MY BUILDING? LIKE MY OFFICE IS RIGHT THERE NEXT TO THE BLUE. UH, THE, THE MODEL DOES NOT KNOW THE FLOOR OF A BUILDING. IT KNOWS THERE'S A BUILDING THERE. THE LIDAR TOLD IT THAT THERE'S A BIG MASS THERE, AND THE MODEL CONSIDERS THAT THERE'S A BUILDING IN THE WAY. SO IT CONSIDERS HOW THAT WATER'S GONNA HAVE TO GO AROUND THE BUILDING, AND THAT COULD SLOW IT DOWN. OKAY. IT KNOWS THOSE THINGS, BUT IT DOESN'T KNOW IF YOUR BUILDING HAS A FLOOR THAT'S FIVE FOOT OFF THE GROUND, YOU'RE HIGH AND DRY, OR YOU ARE AT THE LEVEL OF THE CURB AND YOU'VE GOT SIX INCHES OF WATER IN THE HOUSE. MODEL. DOESN'T KNOW THE IMPACT TO EACH BUILDING, BUT IT DOES KNOW THAT THERE IS A BUILDING THERE. YEAH, I WAS JUST GONNA SAY, YEAH, IT'S BARE EARTH TOPOGRAPHY, LIDAR, THERE'S DIFFERENT TYPES OF LIDAR YOU CAN GET THE LIDAR, THAT'S THE FIRST RETURN WHERE IT ACTUALLY GETS THE ROOF. WE'RE NOT USING THAT. WE'RE USING THE BARE EARTH VERSION. SO AROUND A BUILDING, IT'LL TAKE THE PERIMETER AROUND IT AND BASICALLY TRIPLE EIGHT. UH, SO IT'S NOT GONNA PICK UP YOUR FINISHED FLOOR ELEVATIONS TO, TO ACCOMPLISH THAT. YOU NEED TO COMPARE THIS TO SAY, AN ELEVATION CERTIFICATE, UH, FOR WHICH A LOT OF BUILDINGS HAVE, UH, AS A PART OF THE CRS SYSTEM. I, I THINK THIS IS ALSO A GOOD TIME. I THINK THIS IS ALSO A GOOD TIME. UH, AND DAVE, YOU CAN HELP ME WITH THIS. THERE'S FLOODING THAT YOU'RE SEEING ON THE WEST SIDE THAT YOU'VE NEVER SEEN BEFORE, AND IT'S COMING DOWN FROM THOMPSON AND KELLY CREEKS, AND IT ACTUALLY SHOWS STREET FLOODING, UM, THROUGH THE WEST SIDE. THIS IS, UM, THIS IS SIXTH STREET HERE. AND, UM, HERE'S FIRST, HERE'S PETALUMA BOULEVARD HERE. SO THE, THIS IS IN THE LETTERED AND NUMBERED STREETS ON THE WEST SIDE. IT SHOWS FLOODING. UH, AND THEN, UH, AND THEN AS YOU COME DOWN TO FIRST STREET, OF COURSE, AND I, THERE'S A COUPLE ISOLATED AREAS AROUND THOMPSON CREEK WHERE WE, WHERE WE ACTUALLY ARE SHOWING SOME, SOME FLOOD, UH, FLOODPLAIN, UH, IMPACT NOW, BUT IT'S VERY ISOLATED. WHAT YOU'RE SEEING HERE IS SHALLOW FLOODING THROUGHOUT A LOT OF THESE STREETS. WE'VE NEVER MODELED THESE TWO CREEKS BEFORE. SO IN, IN THE PREVIOUS FLOOD MODELS, UH, UP, UP TO NOW, WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY DATA FOR KELLY AND THOMPSON CREEK, SO WE BROUGHT THEM IN FOR THE FIRST TIME. AND, AND, UM, HAVE WE SEEN THIS KIND? UH, YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW ANECDOTALLY THAT I'VE SEEN THIS, UH, THIS KIND OF MINOR FLOODING IN, IN THIS AREA. UM, AND IT'S, IT'S A QUESTION THAT, UM, THAT I, YOU KNOW, I WANNA MAKE SURE THAT WE TURN OVER, UM, EVERY PEBBLE ON THIS SIDE TO MAKE SURE THAT THIS IS A, AS ACCURATE AS IT CAN BE. UM, AND DAVE ? YEAH, JUST TO CLARIFY, WE, WE DID ACTUALLY HAVE KELLY THOMPSON IN THE XP STORE MODEL, BUT A DECISION WAS MADE THAT THE RESULTS WEREN'T, WEREN'T VERY DIFFERENT ENOUGH FROM THE EXISTING MAPS AT THE TIME TO ACTUALLY INCLUDE THAT AS PART OF THE MAP PROVISION. AND SO, BUT THE, THE CREEKS WERE MODELED AND WE DID HAVE, UM, SURVEY OF THE CROSS SECTIONS AND WHATNOT, UP AND DOWN KELLY THOMPSON CREEK, AND THEY WERE PART OF THAT MODEL, AND THEY CONTINUE TO BE PART OF THIS MODEL. AND YEAH, THE 2D MODEL IS SHOWING THE BREAKOUTS AND FLOW DOWN THE STREET, BUT IT IS THAT YELLOW COLOR, WHICH MEANS IT'S LESS THAN A HALF A FOOT, WHICH WOULD LIKELY DISAPPEAR ON THE FEMA MAPS UNLESS THERE'S A, A HAZARD AND HIGH VELOCITY FLOW. SO LESS THAN 6%, OR I'M SORRY, LESS THAN SIX INCHES, IS GONNA STAY IN THE STREET. THE CURBS ARE SIX INCHES. MM-HMM, . UH, SO, SO THAT'S, YOU KNOW, THAT'S GREAT COMFORT. AND, AND SOMETHING THAT DAVE JUST MENTIONED IS THAT IT LIKELY WOULD DISAPPEAR ON A FEMA MAP BECAUSE THE FEMA MAPS ARE GONNA SHOW ONE FOOT, UM, UH, ONE FOOT AND GREATER. THEY'RE NOT, THEY'RE NOT GOING TO BE ABLE TO SHOW THIS LEVEL OF DETAIL. AND THEN I'M GONNA GO AHEAD AND FORWARD TO THE, THE SAME ZOOMED IN AREA FOR THE KING TIDE WITH 1.9 FOOT OF SEA LEVEL RISE. AGAIN, OUR, THE KING TIDE MAPS, YOU DON'T SEE, YOU DON'T SEE MUCH OVERBANK, UH, AS, AS YOU COME UP INTO TOWN, THERE'S A LITTLE BIT HERE, UM, A LITTLE BIT HERE ALONG THE BOULEVARD. UM, MOST OF THE IMPACTS ARE DOWN AT THE SOUTH END OF TOWN. LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE BIT [02:40:01] HERE. AND I'M GONNA GO AHEAD AND GO TO THE END OF CENTURY. UH, THIS IS THE 1% STORM IE THE A HUNDRED YEAR FLOOD WITH 3.4 FOOT OF SEA LEVEL RISE, 3.4 FEET REPRESENTED, UH, 17%, UM, LIKELIHOOD. UH, AND, UM, A AGAIN, THAT THE MAP IS JUST A ZOOM IN OF THE ONE THAT, THAT WE LOOKED AT EARLIER, BUT YOU CAN START TO SEE A LITTLE MORE DETAIL WHEN WE ZOOM IN. AND I WANTED TO SHARE THIS. HERE'S THAT REAL LIGHT. UM, MOSTLY SIX INCH AND UNDER FLOODING IN THE STREET, IN THE, IN THE RESIDENTIAL AREAS ON THE WEST SIDE, UH, SOUTHWEST SIDE. UH, NOW WE'RE SEEING, UM, WE'RE SEEING SOME, SOME REASONABLE FLOODING IN THE, IN THE ONE TO TWO FOOT, UM, MAYBE EVEN UP TO THREE AND FOUR IN THE STREETS HERE, UM, AROUND FIRST STREET AND SECOND STREET, UH, OVER HERE OFF OF LAKEVILLE. UM, WE'RE STARTING TO SEE A, A LOT MORE, UH, FLOODED AREAS IN THOSE SAME RANGES OF DEPTH. AND THEN, UM, COMING DOWN OVER TO, HERE'S THE MARINA HERE AND, UM, KEEP COMING DOWN AND WE GET OVER TO SCHOENBERGER. SO PRETTY DEEP, PRETTY DEEP AREAS THERE WITH KING TIDE. NOT A LOT OF, OBVIOUSLY NOT A LOT OF RESIDENTIAL DOWN HERE, BUT DEFINITELY SOME DEVELOPMENT IN HERE. AND OF COURSE, ALL THESE BREAKOUT AREAS ARE NEW. WE HAVEN'T SEEN THIS IN ANY OF OUR MAPPING BEFORE. UM, THIS IS MCDOWELL COMING IN HERE AT LAKEVILLE, AND THIS IS KING TIDE AT END OF CENTURY WITH 3.4 FEET. AND, UM, THIS IS, UM, THIS MAP SHOWS THAT DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY AFTER WHICH WE WENT TO THE BATHTUB MODEL, RIGHT? CORRECT. YEAH. ALL THE MAPS HAVE BEEN SHOWING THAT YELLOW LINE THERE. AND SO UPSTREAM OF THAT YELLOW LINE, THAT'S WHERE THE MODEL'S ACTUALLY DOING THE HYDRAULIC CALCULATIONS WITH THE 2D DOWNSTREAM OF THAT LINE. UH, WE'RE USING A DIFFERENT MODEL AND IT'S LITERALLY LIKE, JUST GIVE ME, SHOW ME WHERE THE WATER IS AT THIS ELEVATION. IT'S NOT REALLY DOING HYDRAULIC CALCULATIONS, IT'S JUST WE'RE USING THE TERRAIN AND DUMPING WATER IN IT TO SHOW YOU WHAT THAT LEVEL LOOKS LIKE. THE REASON FOR THAT IS, UH, AS YOU MOVE CLOSE AND CLOSER DOWN TO THE BAY, YOU REALLY START GETTING DOMINATED BY YOUR FLOOD HAZARD GETS DOMINATED BY STORM SURGE RISK, AND THE RAINFALL RISK BECOMES QUITE IRRELEVANT BECAUSE THERE'S JUST, ONCE YOU GET DOWN INTO THE FLATS AND YOU GET INTO THOSE WIDE EXPANSE OF THE FLOOD OF THE MARSHLAND, THE RAIN HAS NO PROBLEM GETTING OUT. IT DOESN'T REALLY BACK UP AND GET THAT HIGH, UH, WHAT'S THE THREAT DOWN THERE IS STORM SURGE. UM, SO THAT MAKES IT EASIER TO MODEL THE EFFECTS, UH, DOWN IN THE LOW AREA. AND IT HELPS THE MODEL BE A LITTLE BIT LIGHTER, RIGHT? NOT ADDING A BUNCH MORE CREEKS THAT ARE SITTING THERE CALCULATING WHEN WE DON'T ACTUALLY NEED TO BOTHER, UH, CALCULATING THEM. EXACTLY. AND THEN THE SCARY MAP, I CALL IT THE SCARY MAP. I, ME TOO . THIS IS END OF CENTURY, VERY LOW PROBABILITY, AGAIN, 1% LIKELIHOOD, UH, IN, AT THE END OF THE CENTURY WITH 6.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE. THIS IS, UM, THIS IS A, YOU KNOW, WORST, WORST CASE SCENARIO THAT WE WOULD CONSIDER USING FOR, UM, FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS. UM, SO WE DON'T THINK THIS IS VERY LIKELY, NOR DOES ANY OF THE GUIDANCE THAT WE'VE RECEIVED, BUT IN AN ABUNDANCE OF CAUTION, AND TO BE AS PRUDENT AS WE CAN, UH, WITH PUBLIC SAFETY FACILITIES, WE FEEL LIKE WE SHOULD, WE SHOULD BE PAYING ATTENTION TO THIS. AND, AND JUST FOR, TO COMPARED TO ONE OF THE CONVERSATIONS YOU WERE HAVING EARLIER, UM, THAT OYSTER COVE STUDY HAD CONSIDERED, UH, 6.6 FEET. THERE'S A LITTLE DISCREPANCY THERE BECAUSE THEY WERE USING SOME, THEY WERE USING MAPPING THAT DIDN'T HAVE THE OPTION. YOU COULDN'T CLICK 6.9, YOU COULD ONLY PICK 6.6. UM, BUT IN REALITY, THOSE COUPLE INCHES, IT'S PRETTY IRRELEVANT TO, TO THE STRATEGY CONVERSATION. UM, THIS IS THAT WHEN THEY SAY A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE PLUS 6.6 ISH FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE, UH, THAT, THAT THEIR FINISHED ATIONS ARE ABOVE THAT LEVEL, THIS [02:45:01] IS THE MAP THAT, YOU KNOW, THIS IS WHAT'S HAPPENING IN THE REST OF TOWN. AND THIS IS WHERE OYSTER COVE IS JUST FOR REFERENCE. BUT AGAIN, TO ANOTHER POINT, IT DOESN'T CONSIDER, UH, WHAT PROJECTS MIGHT BE BUILT, UH, LIKE IT SHOWS THAT AREA AS HAVING FLOOD DEPTH, EVEN THOUGH THAT PROJECT APPLICATION HAS FILLING THAT AREA. UH, SO AGAIN, THE MODEL DOESN'T, WE DIDN'T ADD INTO THE MODEL, THE SUITE OF PROJECTS THAT MIGHT BE COMING IN THE NEAR FUTURE. UM, IT'S JUST BASED ON WHAT THE LAND SURFACE WAS IN 2014. THE OTHER THING TO REMEMBER ABOUT THESE MODELS IS THEY'RE, THEY'RE PREDICATED ON THOSE TWO BIG ASSUMPTIONS, NO IMPROVEMENT TO GLOBAL EMISSIONS. AND TWO, THE CITY DOES NOTHING TO, TO, UH, ADAPT, RIGHT? DOES NOT MODIFY LAND USE, DOES NOT BUILD ANY FLOOD CONTROL STRUCTURES. UH, DOESN'T DO ANY OF THAT. AND SINCE I'M OVER HERE POINTING OUT WHERE OYSTER COVE IS, I WOULD BE REMISS NOT TO POINT OUT THAT ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE RIVER RIGHT OVER HERE IS FIRE STATION NUMBER ONE IN LESS, IN GREATER THAN FIVE FOOT DEPTH. SO, UM, KING TIDE, ONE LAST ONE. YEP. OKAY. THIS IS OUR 6.9 FEET OF SEA LEVEL RISE AT THE END OF CENTURY WITH KING TIDE. I THINK THE, THE THING THAT THIS STARTS SHOWING, UH, RELEVANT FOR THE KING TIDE CONVERSATION IS BEFORE WITH, WITH THAT 1.9 OR 3.4 OR SEA LEVEL RISE, THOSE KING TIDES CAUSE DISTINCT LOW AREAS TO POTENTIALLY FLOOD. WHEREAS HERE WE'VE REACHED A POINT WHERE IT'S NOT LOW AREAS FLOODING BECAUSE MAYBE A STORM DRAIN IS GOING BACKWARDS, UH, WHICH IS A PRETTY EASY ENGINEERING FIX. UH, THESE AREAS ARE, ARE CONTIGUOUS INUNDATION, RIGHT? THERE'S A CONNECTION OF WATER FLOWING FROM THE CREEK OVER THE LAND TO THESE AREAS, UH, WHICH IS A DIFFERENT SORT OF HAZARD, RIGHT? AND IT'S A DIFFERENT SORT OF ADAPTATION THAT'S REQUIRED, UH, OR A DIFFERENT SORT OF DEFENSE THAT'S REQUIRED. SO THAT'S ONE OF THE THINGS THAT HAVING THESE DIFFERENT MAPS LETS YOU DO AND HAVING THE MODEL LETS YOU DO IS, IS NOT JUST WHAT AREAS MIGHT FLOOD, BUT WHAT KIND OF FLOOD WOULD THEY EXPERIENCE? IS IT DEEP? IS IT SHALLOW? IS IT FAST? UH, IS IT HAPPENING EVERY YEAR MULTIPLE TIMES, OR IS IT JUST GOT A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING? UM, SO THAT'S, THAT'S THE VIRTUE OF TRYING TO BREAK THESE, THESE PRODUCTS OUT AND BEING ABLE TO LOOK AT THEM. UM, OKAY, THANKS. SO NEXT STEPS. WE'RE ALMOST AT THE END, UM, I'LL DO THIS ONE. OKAY. SO WE'VE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THIS UPDATING GUIDANCE. UH, WE'RE ON A CYCLE. THE STATE PROVIDES EXTRA GUIDANCE AND FORMALLY WITH, WITH THEIR OPC, UH, PUBLICATIONS. AND THERE'S ALSO IN BETWEEN, WE GET BETTER GUIDANCE BECAUSE MARIN DOES A PROJECT AND WE THINK THERE'S AN INTERESTING PRECEDENT, OR SONOMA WATER FINISHES A STUDY AND WE THINK THERE'S INTERESTING DATA TO BE GARNERED FROM THERE. SO WE'RE ALWAYS KIND OF PULLING IN NEW INFORMATION. THE MOST RECENT INFORMATION WE'VE GOTTEN IS WHAT'S BEEN CALLED THE CALIFORNIA SEA LEVEL RISE 2024. IT'S ALSO FROM THE OCEAN PROTECTION COUNCIL. I KIND OF WISH THEY JUST CALLED IT OPC 2024. UH, I WOULD'VE MADE THIS A LITTLE BIT SIMPLER, BUT THEY DIDN'T. IT'S BEEN RELEASED AS A DRAFT IN JANUARY. WE JUST GOT IT. WE JUST ATTENDED SOME DISCUSSIONS WITH THEM. THEY'RE THINKING THIS YEAR, LATER THIS YEAR, THEY SHOULD HAVE THE FINAL, AND IT MAKES, IT MAKES SOME CHANGES. SO LET'S GO THROUGH THAT. UH, FIRST OFF, THE OPC 18 FOLLOWED THAT FRAMEWORK, THAT PROBABILISTIC FRAMEWORK, RIGHT? WE LOOKED AT THAT CHART THAT HAD THE BLUE GRAPH OF THERE'S A REALLY GOOD CHANCE YOU'LL GET A LITTLE BIT AND THERE'S LESS CHANCE YOU'LL GET MORE AND THERE'S LESS CHANCE YOU'LL GET EVEN MORE. AND THERE'S A VERY LITTLE CHANCE YOU'LL GET THIS HUGE AMOUNT THEY HAVE DONE AWAY WITH THAT STRUCTURE. I'M NOT HAPPY ABOUT IT. , WHAT THEY'RE DOING IS FOLLOWING A FEDERAL TOOL THAT CAME OUT IN 2022 THAT USED A DIFFERENT SORT OF FRAMEWORK, A DIFFERENT WAY OF THINKING ABOUT THESE SEA LEVEL SCENARIOS, RATHER THAN GIVING YOU THE ABILITY TO PICK, OKAY, HIGH EMISSIONS OR LOW EMISSIONS, OH, I WANT HIGH EMISSIONS. OKAY, PICK A YEAR. UH, AND IT GIMME A PROBABILITY OF HOW HIGH IT WILL BE IN THAT YEAR. IT DOES AWAY WITH THAT FRAMEWORK. IT BASICALLY, UM, IT DOESN'T LET YOU PICK EMISSIONS ANYMORE. IT'S, IT'S BASICALLY MADE FIVE CATEGORIES OF SEA LEVEL RISE FROM LOW TO HIGH, AND GIVEN YOU WHAT, WHAT IT THINKS, WHAT, WHAT IT THINKS THE, THE, THE MIDDLE AMOUNT OF SEA LEVEL RISE IS WHAT IT THINKS THE HIGH AMOUNT OF SEA LEVEL RISE IS. AND UNFORTUNATELY, IT DOESN'T, IT CAN'T THEN ASSIGN A PROBABILITY. AND SO THERE'S, THERE'S BEEN A [02:50:01] LOT OF CONVERSATION AND A LOT OF PUSHBACK OF, HEY, THIS ISN'T AS GOOD OF A PLANNING TOOL AS OPC 2018 WAS. 'CAUSE WE NEED PROBABILITIES. SO AGAIN, THEY'RE SOLICITING PUBLIC FEEDBACK RIGHT NOW. WE'VE PROVIDED A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT, UM, AND WE'RE HOPING TO GET MORE CLARITY ON THAT. THAT WAS, SO THAT'S ONE OF THE BAD PARTS. HERE'S A GOOD PART. IT DOES ANTICIPATE LOWER AMOUNTS OF SEA LEVEL RISE THAN SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN WHAT WE HAVE THUS FAR BEEN CONSIDERING. THAT'S GREAT. UH, WE WERE EXPECTING IT TO GET A LITTLE BIT WORSE BECAUSE OVER THE LAST 15 YEARS, EVERY CLIMATE REPORT SEEMS TO GET A LITTLE BIT WORSE EVERY TIME. SO IN THIS CASE, WHAT'S HAPPENED IS THAT THEY'VE IMPROVED THE SCIENCE SO MUCH THAT THE PROJECTIONS USED TO BE A REALLY BIG SPECTRUM FROM ONE FOOT TO 14 FEET. UH, WHAT THAT HAS NOW, WELL, ONE TO SEVEN. AND THEN THEY HAD THIS OUTLIER OF THIS 14, UH, THAT WAS KIND OF IN ITS OWN WORLD WITH NO PROBABILITIES ASSOCIATED. WHAT THEY'VE BEEN ABLE TO DO NOW IS SHRINK THAT RANGE DOWN. AND SO, 'CAUSE THEY HAVE MORE CERTAINTY. AND BECAUSE PETALUMA HAD ONLY EVER BEEN LOOKING AT THE TOP OF THE RANGE, WHEN THAT RANGE GOT CONSTRICTED, OUR VALUES ACTUALLY WENT DOWN A LITTLE BIT. SO IF YOU LOOK AT THE TABLE DOWN HERE AT THE BOTTOM, OPC 2018 ARE THE TOP NUMBERS. WE WENT FROM, UH, 3.4. THERE WAS A 6.9. THERE WAS THIS 10.2 THAT WAS FLOATING OUT THERE IN THE ETHER. AND THE OPC GUIDANCE SAID, THINK ABOUT THIS, BUT WE HAVE NO IDEA HOW LIKELY IT IS. IT'S PRETTY OUT THERE DATA. WHAT THEY'VE DONE NOW GO MOVE DOWN A ROW IS THEY'VE SAID, OKAY, WE HAVE A MUCH BETTER HANDLE ON THESE REALLY, THESE REALLY, UH, UNKNOWN VARIABLES LIKE GREENLAND AND ANTARCTIC DESTABILIZATION. AND THAT'S LET THEM PULL THE RANGE IN. SO WHAT WAS THEIR EXTREME SCENARIO OF 10 FEET HAS NOW BEEN DROPPED DOWN TO 6.5 AND WHAT WAS THEIR, YOU KNOW, WHAT WE HAD BEEN CONSIDERING THE 3.4. THEY'RE SAYING, WELL, ACTUALLY THAT AMOUNT OF RISK, IT'S ONLY 3.1 ANYMORE. SO THEY'VE TAKEN OUR NUMBERS. YOU SEE, WE'VE KIND OF SHIFTED DOWN A BIT. UH, WE WENT FROM, WHAT DO WE HAVE MAPS OF? WE HAVE, UH, 1.9, 3.4 AND 6.9. WELL, THEIR EQUIVALENTS NOW UNDER THE NEW GUIDANCE ARE ONE FOOT, 3.1, AND 6.5 ARE KIND OF THE, THE EQUIVALENTS BETWEEN THOSE. UM, SO THAT'S GREAT. THE NUMBERS WENT DOWN A LITTLE BIT. THAT MEANS WE HAVE A LITTLE CUSHION IN OUR MODELS, A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA LEEWAY. MAYBE IT'S NOT 2100 MORE, MAYBE WE'RE NOW MODELING 21 0 5, 20, YOU KNOW, 2110. UH, OUR, OUR MAP FOR 2050 IS NOW KIND OF MORE LIKE A 2060 MAP. IT'S PROBABLY STILL A USEFUL TOOL. IN FACT, THE EXTRA BUFFER IS, HAS BEEN ONE OF THE REQUESTS THAT WE'VE BEEN GETTING FROM COMMUNITY AND COUNCIL IS ADD A LITTLE BIT OF EXTRA BUFFER IN HERE. SO THAT'S GOOD NEWS. THE MOST CHALLENGING PART ABOUT IT IS IN THEIR DRAFT LANGUAGE, THEY'RE REALLY MISSING A LOT OF SECTIONS ABOUT HOW DO YOU USE THIS MAP? HOW DO YOU USE THESE, THESE DATA POINTS? WHAT LAND USES ARE APPROPRIATE FOR THESE DIFFERENT PROJECTIONS? UH, THEY HAVE PROVIDED THREE LAND USES THAT PERTAIN TO EACH OF THESE THREE SCENARIOS. THEY SAID PARK BENCHES FOR LOW CAMPING, FOR MEDIUM HIGH AND CRITICAL SAFETY AND INFRASTRUCTURE IN THE EXTREME. THERE'S A LOT OF LAND USES IN BETWEEN THOSE LAST TWO THAT WE NEED THEM TO FIND MORE GUIDANCE ON. BECAUSE THERE'S A DIFFERENCE IN THE RISK PROFILE OF A SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE TO A MULTI-FAMILY, TO COMPARING A WAREHOUSE TO A RETAIL, TO A WAREHOUSE WITH, UH, HAZARDOUS MATERIALS. THERE'S A DIFFERENCE IN THE WORLD OF FLOOD CONTROL. WHEN WE TALK, YOU KNOW, OUR PRECEDENT COMES FROM AMERICAN SOCIETY, CIVIL ENGINEERS. THERE'S A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN AN INPATIENT HOSPITAL AND A AND A HOSPITAL THAT HAS, UH, SURGERY SUITES, RIGHT? WE WANT, MAYBE WE DON'T, MAYBE WE CAN'T GET THAT MUCH DETAIL FROM THEM, BUT WE WANT A BETTER UNDERSTANDING OF WHAT USES APPLY TO EACH OF THESE. BASED ON THE PRELIMINARY READ OF VERY LACKING LACKLUSTER GUIDANCE THAT'S IN THE DRAFT FORM. THERE'S A POSSIBILITY THAT THE MAP, THE USES THAT WE THOUGHT THE 3.4 MAP WAS APPROPRIATE FOR, THEY MIGHT NOW THINK A 4.8 FOOT MAP IS MORE APPROPRIATE FOR WHICH AFFECTS MORE OF THE CITY. AND WE DON'T HAVE IT MAPPED YET. SO WE'RE IN COORDINATION WITH THEM. UM, AND WITH SOME, AND WITH BCDC AND SOME OTHER REGIONAL EFFORTS AND SOME OTHER CITIES TO, UH, TRY AND, UH, PUSH FOR MORE CLARITY IN THE FINAL LANGUAGE WHEN THAT COMES OUT, HOPEFULLY THIS YEAR. AND HOW THAT MIGHT AFFECT, UH, THE MAPPING THAT NEEDS TO POTENTIALLY BE REDONE OR POLICY [02:55:01] PORTIONS OF THE GENERAL PLAN. I WOULD JUST SAY IF WE'RE LOOKING AT A 3.1 MAP VERSUS A 3.4 MAP, WE WANT TO BEAR IN MIND ALL, ALL MODELS ARE WRONG, SOME ARE GOOD. THE 3.4 MAP IS PROBABLY STILL APPROPRIATE FOR CONSIDERING THE IMPACTS OF A 3.1 C LEVEL SCENARIO. AND THAT'S ONE OF THE REASONS WE'RE THINKING OF THESE AS MID-CENTURY. IT'S NOT A 2050 MAP, 'CAUSE MAYBE IT'S 2045, MAYBE IT'S 2055. UH, JUST APPRECIATING THAT THERE ARE SO MANY VARIABLES AND UNKNOWNS IN THESE C LEVEL RISE PROJECTIONS, AND WE DON'T NECESSARILY NEED TO GET HUNG UP IN, IT'S OFF BY A COUPLE INCHES. UH, SO WE WILL UPDATE AS WE GET MORE CONCRETE GUIDANCE FOR THAT. OKAY. I THINK I'LL, UM, I'LL WRAP US UP AND JUST DO A, A QUICK, UM, REVIEW OF THE FEMA UPDATE PROCESS. UM, SO WE HAVE, UH, WE HAVE, WE'RE IN THE NASCENT STAGES OF STARTING THIS PROCESS. WE'VE HAD CONVERSATIONS WITH OUR FEMA REP. THEY UNDERSTAND THAT WE'RE GONNA BE BRINGING, UH, A MAP UPDATE, UM, PROJECT TO THEM. THEY'RE WORKING, UH, OUR PROJECT INTO THEIR SCHEDULE. SO THEY'RE ANTICIPATING THIS. AND, UM, UH, IT WILL BE A PUBLIC WORKS LED, UH, INITIATIVE, UH, WITH WEST CONSULTING, UH, AGAIN, DOING THE HEAVY LIFTING, UH, ON THE MAPPING. UM, IT'LL INCLUDE, UH, TECHNICAL REVIEWS WITH FEMA, A LOT OF COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT. SO THERE WILL BE, UM, THERE WILL BE A LOT OF MEETINGS, UH, EXPLAINING THE MAPPING, UH, PROBABLY AREA BY AREA IN PETALUMA. IT WON'T BE A BIG GIANT PETALUMA WIDE MEETING. I THINK WHAT, WHAT WE THINK WILL BE MORE HELPFUL, UH, IS TO MEET WITH, UM, WITH AREAS OF THE TOWN THAT HAVE A, A SIMILAR DRAINAGE. UM, UH, AND, UH, SO MAYBE THERE'S ANYWHERE FROM FOUR TO SIX OF THEM, DEPENDING ON HOW WE DIVIDE UP THE TOWN SO THAT WE CAN BE ONE-ON-ONE WITH COMMUNITY MEMBERS AND ANSWER QUESTIONS ABOUT, YOU KNOW, THEIR NEIGHBORHOOD AND THEIR IMPACTS MORE DIRECTLY. SO, UM, THOSE WILL BE COMING. UM, WE HAVE FEMA'S ESTIMATE THAT IT, UH, THEY GAVE US A TWO YEAR ESTIMATE FROM THE TIME WE FILE OUR FIRST SUBMITTAL. WE HAVE, UM, A FUNDING GAP TO GET ALL THIS DONE. WE CAN START IT RIGHT NOW AND, UH, WITH, WITH, UH, WITH WHAT WE HAVE. BUT, UM, FEMA ACTUALLY HAS A, A GREAT GRANT PROGRAM TO HELP WITH, UM, THESE MAPPING PROJECTS. UH, UNFORTUNATELY WE CAN'T EVEN APPLY FOR THE FUNDING UNTIL AFTER WE DO OUR FIRST SUBMITTAL AND AFTER WE'VE GONE THROUGH SOME TRAIN, SOME ADDITIONAL TRAINING RELATED TO THE GRANT PROGRAM. SO, UH, WE ARE WORKING ON THAT AS WELL NOW. SO THERE'S, UH, FUNDING EFFORT AND, UH, GRANT APPLICATIONS AND TRAINING GOING ALONG WITH, WITH THE REST OF THIS. UM, SO IT'S VERY EXCITING AND, AND IT'S STARTING. AND IN TWO YEARS I HOPE TO BE, UM, ANNOUNCING THE ACCEPTANCE OF SOME NEW MAPS. AND IN THE MEANTIME, AS WE POINTED OUT, WE WILL, UM, WE, WE WILL BE RECOMMENDING THAT OUR, UH, HIGHER STANDARD MAPS THAT WE'RE DEVELOPING HERE, UH, WE'LL BE USED FOR OUR PLANNING APPLICATIONS AND BUILDING APPLICATIONS AND NOT WAITING FOR THE FEMA MAP UPDATES. AND WHERE IN, IN SOME CASES, I DIDN'T POINT THIS OUT WHEN WE'RE GOING THROUGH THE MAPS, BUT IF YOU GO BACK AND LOOK THROUGH THEM, YOU'LL, UM, CAREFULLY YOU'LL NOTICE THAT THERE'S ACTUALLY SOME AREAS IN THE NORTH END OF TOWN ALONG INDUSTRIAL THAT ARE COMING OUT OF THE FLOODPLAIN, BECAUSE NOW THEY'RE, I THINK, LARGELY TAKING INTO ACCOUNT OUR PAY RAN REACH, UM, FLOOD PROJECTS THAT WE DID. UM, AND SO IN SOME CASES, THE EXISTING FEMA MAP WILL BE MORE CONSERVATIVE IN TERMS OF FLOODING, UH, THAN THE NEW MAPPING, AND IN SOME CASES VICE VERSA. SO WE WILL BE, UM, WE'LL BE UTILIZING ALL OF THOSE RESOURCES AS WE, UH, ENTERTAIN, UM, IMPACTS AND TO PROJECTS. UM, SO, UH, JUST SORT OF A, A RECAP ON FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT HERE IN TOWN. UM, WE KNOW THAT OF COURSE, FLOODS, UM, CAN AND HAVE HAPPENED, UH, ACROSS, UM, BROAD AREAS OF TOWN. AND, UM, AND IT, IT'S VERY CHALLENGING. WE'VE HAD A LOT OF, UM, HISTORICALLY, UH, REALLY DEVASTATING FLOODS, UH, IN TOWN. UM, I THINK PAM [03:00:01] REMEMBERS EVACUATING MEMBERS FROM, UH, LEISURE LAKE IN, IN A BACKHOE BUCKET, RIGHT? OR FRONT LOADER BUCKET THAT'S PENAL THE STATES ALAMA STATE LEISURE LAKE. WE DID, UH, THROUGH THE HIGHWAY 1 0 1 FENCE, UM, ON THE BUSES 86. SO, UM, UH, AND WE'VE HAD A LOT OF SEVERE FLOODING DOWNTOWN TOO, UH, AT LEAST ONE OF THOSE. SO WE WANNA KEEP THE COMMUNITY SAFE. WE WANNA MINIMIZE FLOOD RISK AND DAMAGE. THAT'S WHAT THIS IS ALL ABOUT. UH, WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THE CRS COMMUNITY RATING SYSTEM, UH, AND IT'S THE, THE ROLE THAT PLAYS, UM, THAT WE PLAY AS A CRS COMMUNITY AND HOW THAT BENEFITS OUR COMMUNITY AND HOW WE ARE CONTINUALLY STRIVING TO IMPROVE OUR RATING IN THAT SYSTEM. AND, UM, PAM, UH, IS, IS, UM, DEVOTING THE BULK OF HER, UH, PROFESSIONAL TIME TO, UM, ELEVATING OUR CREDITS WITH THE CRS SYSTEM AND, UH, INITIATING MORE PROGRAMS IN THE CITY SO THAT WE CAN DEMONSTRATE AN EVEN HIGHER STANDARD. AND, UH, AND WE'RE WORKING TOWARD A CLASS FIVE CERTIFICATION THAT WOULD INCREASE THE, UM, DISCOUNT TO OUR FLOODPLAIN, UM, UH, UH, INSUREDS. AND IT WOULD TAKE, IT WOULD, UH, OFFER AN ADDITIONAL 5% OFF, SO IT WOULD BE A 25% DISCOUNT OFF OF THEIR PREMIUMS IF WE CAN GET THERE. AND WE'RE THINKING THAT WE MIGHT BE ABLE TO GET THERE BY THE END OF THE YEAR. SO WORKING HARD ON THAT. AND, UM, AND THEN I'M JUST POINTED OUT ON THIS SLIDE, SOME OF THE PROJECTS THAT WE HAVE DONE, UH, AND THAT WE'RE SEEING THE IMPACTS OF, UH, IN, IN THESE, UH, IN THESE STORMS, UH, PROJECTS TO MANAGE THE FLOW OF WATER THROUGH OUR RIVERS AND CREEKS. SO THE PAY RAN REACH FLOOD WALLS, UH, HAVE MADE A DIFFERENCE IN THE PAYAN AREA. THE DEMMON REACHED ATTENTION PONDS AND TERRACING. I MENTIONED THAT THE NEW FLOOD MAPS HAVE THAT AREA AROUND INDUSTRIAL AVENUE, OUT OF THE FLOOD PLAIN. NOW IT'S BECAUSE OF THOSE PROJECTS LARGELY. AND, UM, AND THEN, UH, CAP, THE CAPRI CREEK IMPROVEMENTS THAT PREDATED THAT. SO, UH, AND THEN OF COURSE, AS PART OF OUR FLOODPLAIN MANAGEMENT, THE DEVELOPMENT OF THESE MAPS THAT WE'VE BEEN SHARING WITH YOU AND THE WORK THAT'S BEEN DONE ON THESE. UM, AND, UH, AND THE NEXT, THE NEXT SHOE TO DROP IS GOING TO BE, UH, THE GENERAL PAN PLAN POLICIES THAT THESE WILL BE, UH, WILL BE A TOOL FOR YOU IN, IN EVALUATING SOME OF THESE UPCOMING LAND USE, UH, POLICIES. SO I THINK THAT'S IT, UM, FOR US, AND WE WOULD ARE HAPPY TO ENTERTAIN MORE QUESTIONS. UM, AND APPRECIATE YOUR PATIENCE IN SITTING THROUGH WHAT WAS A VERY LONG PRESENTATION. THANK YOU. THANK YOU, GINA. AND I BELIEVE ROGER, THE JESSICA, UM, , THE, HOW THIS IMPACTS THE CITY IN THE FUTURE, I THINK IS THE WRONG QUESTION. I, IT SEEMS LIKE HOW DOES IT IMPACT THE FUTURE OF THE CITY? UH, THIS, THIS INFORMATION, I, I'M VERY CONCERNED THIS INFORMATION IN THE WRONG HANDS, IN THE WRONG EXPOSURE COULD JUST BE A DISASTER TO THIS TOWN, TO INVESTMENTS, TO, TO COMMERCIAL PROPERTY, TO RETAIL MOVING HERE. I THINK IT'S, IT REALLY NEEDS TO BE MANAGED. AND I, I DON'T KNOW HOW TO DO IT. IT NEEDS TO BE MANAGED IN A VERY EFFECTIVE WAY, UH, TO DO THE LEAST AMOUNT OF DAMAGE POSSIBLE. UH, AND I DON'T, I'M CONCERNED WITH THIS IS A LOT OF INFORMATION THAT PEOPLE ARE, CAN DO CRAZY THINGS WITH. SO I'M, I'M CONCERNED, UM, CAN I SPEAK TO THAT? MAY I SPEAK TO THAT? YEAH, I, I, WE, I TAKE YOUR COMMENTS TO HEART, AND I TAKE THIS VERY SERIOUSLY, AND, AND THERE'S A LOT OF EDUCATION THAT'S GONNA HAVE TO HAPPEN SURROUNDING THIS. AND THIS IS JUST, YOU KNOW, SOME OF OUR EARLY EDUCATIONAL INFORMATIONAL WORK THAT WE'RE GONNA BE DOING. WE'RE GONNA BE TAKING THIS ON THE ROAD AND TRYING TO SHARE THIS INFORMATION WITH THE COMMUNITY IN, IN A VERY CAREFUL, THOUGHTFUL WAY, SO THAT WE CAN DEVELOP AN UNDERSTANDING AND, UM, UH, AND, UM, UH, SORT OF A NEW, A NEW LANGUAGE BASE WITH THE COMMUNITY ON FLOOD. UM, WE WOULD BE REMISS NOT TO SHARE VITAL INFORMATION. IT'S OUR JOB TO SHARE IT IN, IN A WAY THAT THAT WILL BE UNDERSTANDABLE AND DIGESTIBLE AND THAT WILL BE MEANINGFUL. UH, AND, AND THE EDUCATION PIECE IS JUST ONE FACET OF WHAT WE'LL BE DOING, UH, IN THE VERY NEAR FUTURE. AND, UM, I, UH, I THINK THAT, UM, UH, ONE OF THE RECOMMENDATIONS YOU'LL BE SEEING COMING FORWARD FROM STAFF [03:05:01] IN, IN THE FRAMEWORK IS TO, UH, LAUNCH A, UH, ADAPTATION PLAN, UH, A FLOOD, UH, ADAPTATION PLAN, UH, BASED ON THIS, THIS WORK EFFORT THAT YOU SEE HERE. AND THAT WILL BE, UM, UH, PLAN WITH, UH, UH, A FAIR BIT OF EFFORT, UM, A NEW EFFORT TO TAKE THIS INFORMATION AND, AND START IDENTIFYING WHAT ADAPTATIONS, WHAT TYPE, WHERE, WHEN IT'S APPROPRIATE, UH, TO START, TO START DEVELOPING A PLAN FOR THE CITY TO ADDRESS THESE, THESE FLOOD RISKS. AND, AND MIKE, MIKE, MIKE, WITH THAT ADAPTATION PLAN, JUST ONE LAST COMMENT WITH THAT ADAPTATION PLAN, IT GIVES US THE ABILITY TO SEEK GRANT FUNDING FOR WHAT WILL BE SOME VERY EXPENSIVE AND, AND, UM, IMPACTFUL PROJECTS. YEAH, SO GO AHEAD. MY ONLY CONCERN IS, IS, AND I'M SURE COUNCIL WILL DO THIS, BUT IT NEEDS TO GET INTO, UH, SOME, UM, NOT NECESSARILY FLOOD CONTROL ENGINEERING BRAINS OR PLANNING COMMISSION BRAINS, BUT INTO SOME, WHAT DO WE DO WITH THIS INFORMATION AND HOW CAN WE, HOW CAN WE TURN INTO SOMETHING WE CAN LIVE WITH, UH, BECAUSE I'M, WE'RE, WE'RE GONNA BE LIVING UNDER AN INVESTMENT SHADOW FOR MANY YEARS NOW WITHOUT A RESOLUTION. HOW WE, HOW DO WE COPE WITH IT? HOW DO WE DEAL WITH IT? HOW DO WE IMPROVE THINGS? WHAT CAN WE DO? WHAT CAN'T WE DO? AND THERE'S A WHOLE BUNCH OF THINGS, AND I JUST CAN'T IMAGINE A GENERAL PLAN BEING RESOLVED IN A YEAR WITH THIS KIND OF QUESTION UNRESOLVED AND THE, AND THE FINANCES IT WOULD TAKE TO FIX THINGS TO A POINT WHERE DOWNTOWN IS OKAY. I, IT'S JUST A HUGE, UM, A HUGE SHADOW TO LIVE UNDER. AND, AND I'M NOT SURE WHAT WE DO WITH IT. ALL RIGHT, JESSICA. UM, I HAVE A COUPLE METHODOLOGY CLARIFY CLARIFYING QUESTIONS AND THEN A MAPPING QUESTION. SO THE THREE FLOOD HAZARDS THAT YOU OUTLAID, YOU HAD KING TIDES, WHICH ARE, LET'S CALL IT SEMI-ANNUAL RAINFALL AT 1% CHANCE, STORM SURGE AT ONE 1% CHANCE AM IS MY UNDERSTANDING CORRECT THAT RAINFALL AND STORM SURGE ARE MUTUALLY EXCLUSIVE? YOU WOULDN'T GET EXTREME RAINFALL AND EXTREME STORM SURGE ON THE SAME DAY. YEAH. SO YOU, DURING ANY RAIN EVENT, THERE WILL PROBABLY BE SOME AMOUNT OF STORM SURGE. THEY'RE, THEY'RE TYPICALLY, THEY TYPICALLY ALIGN WITH EACH OTHER SOME AMOUNT DURING THE, THAT 100 YEAR RAIN EVENT. MM-HMM. YOU WILL NOT HAVE A HUNDRED YEAR STORM SURGE. OKAY. THE, THE STATISTIC, THE STATISTICS OF THOSE LINING UP WITH EACH OTHER IS IT'S ALL OF A SUDDEN YOU'RE PREDICTING A, A SCENARIO THAT'S, IS IT ONE IN FIVE? IS IT ONE IN A THOUSAND? IS IT ONE IN 10 VALUE? GOTCHA. IT'S, IT'S NOT EVALUATED, IT'S NOT A TOOL THAT'S USED. UM, SO WHEN YOU LOOK AT THESE 1% MAPS THAT WE'RE JUST LOOKING AT, JUST LIKE WHEN YOU LOOK AT A FIRM, YOU'RE LOOKING AT A COMPOSITE OF HOW MUCH GETS FLOODED BY A 1% RAIN UP IN THE, MOSTLY THE UPPER RIVER AND HOW MUCH GETS FLOODED BY A 1% STORM, WHICH IS EXCLUSIVELY IN THE KIND OF DOWNTOWN AND LOWER, UH, ARENA. SO IT, THAT ENTIRE THING DOES NOT HAPPEN AT, IN ONE DAY. IT'S JUST, YOU CAN SHOW IT ON THE SAME MAP 'CAUSE IT'S GOT THE SAME LIKELIHOOD OF HAPPENING. OKAY. UM, SO THEN WE'RE ADDING THIS ADDITIONAL LAYER OF SEA LEVEL RISE IN, IN LOW, MODERATE AND SCARY LEVELS. DO WE HAVE A MODEL THAT SHOWS SEA LEVEL RISE PLUS STORM SURGE OR RAINFALL AND KING TIDE? AH, THAT'S A GREAT QUESTION. SO, SO REPHRASED, UH, THE, THE DISASTER MOVIE MAP IS WHAT I'M ASKING FOR . YEAH. UH, DURING THE WILDFIRE, DURING THE POWER OUTAGE, DURING THE, YEAH. YEAH. SO THE, THE QUESTION, THERE'S THAT MODELING THING. IT GOES BACK TO THIS QUESTION OF HOW HIGH IS THE RIVER WHEN WE RUN THE MODEL? WELL, HOW HIGH IS THE RIVER WHEN IT RAINS? IT GOES UP AND DOWN RIGHT? TWICE A DAY. TOO HIGH TIDES, TOO LOW TIDES EVERY DAY. THE TIMING OF WHEN THE RAIN'S TRYING TO GET OUT VERSUS HOW HIGH THE RIVER IS. YEAH. IT'S A VERY IMPORTANT QUESTION. AND IT WAS PART OF THE CALIBRATION OF THE MODEL. SO THE QUESTION YOU'RE ASKING SEEMS TO BE, IF I UNDERSTAND IT RIGHT, IS WE'RE USING THAT MEAN HIGH OR HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS THE AVERAGE OF ALL THE HIGH TIDES IN THE YEAR. IT'S ABOUT HERE. KING TIDE IS ABOVE THAT. RIGHT? UH, SO YOU WOULD SAY, OKAY, SHOULD WE MODEL WHAT HAPPENS WHEN RAIN IS HAPPENING? OR YOU CAN ACTUALLY BASICALLY IGNORE THE RAINFALL CONVERSATION BECAUSE THE EFFECT OF, UH, THE TIDES IN THE TIDAL AREA, YOU'RE A STORM SURGE CONCERN [03:10:01] ANYWAYS, SO WE CAN KIND OF IGNORE THE RAINFALL. SO THE QUESTION IS, WHY AREN'T WE ADDING STORM SURGE TO KING TIDE? WHY DID WE ADD IT TO THE MEAN HIGH OR HIGH TIDE, WHICH IS A LITTLE BIT LESS. UM, SO THE REASON FOR THAT IS, ONE IS A GAME OF STATISTICS. UH, WE'RE USED TO SEEING THESE FLOOD MAPS THAT HAVE A 1% CHANCE OF HAPPENING EACH YEAR. IF YOU WERE TO SAY, WELL, WHAT'S THE CHANCE THAT THAT 1% EVENT HAPPENS AT THE SAME TIME OF DAY, JUST A COUPLE HOURS OF THAT KING TIDE, A LOT LESS THAN 1%, AND AN UNKNOWN AMOUNT LESS THAN 1%. SO ONE YOU, SO BY DOING THAT, YOU BLOW UP THE ABILITY TO HAVE A PROBABILITY CONVERSATION. THE OTHER ONE IS, UH, THE OTHER ONE IS BY TAKING THE MEAN HIGH OR HIGH WATER, WE'RE ASSUMING DURING THE RAINFALL EVENTS THAT THE RIVER STAYS AT MEAN HIGH OR HIGH WATER THE ENTIRE 24 HOURS OF THE STORM. OF COURSE IT DOESN'T. THERE'S A LOW TIDE IN THERE. IN FACT, THERE'S TWO LOW TIDES MOMENTS WHEN IT'S EASIER FOR THE WATER TO GET OUT. AND THIS WAS A BIG QUESTION, AND IT ACTUALLY WAS A LOT OF STUDY OF RUNNING THE MODEL MULTIPLE TIMES. WHAT HAPPENS IN THAT STORM IF THE STORM STARTS AT MIDNIGHT AND IT'S HIGH TIDE AT MIDNIGHT? OKAY, WELL WHAT IF MIDNIGHT MID? IF THE HIGH TIDE IS 20 MINUTES LATER, WHAT IF IT'S 20 MINUTES LATER? WE RAN MULTIPLE ATTEMPTS TO TRY AND SEE HOW SENSITIVE IS THE FLOODPLAIN TO, UH, WHEN THE HIGH TIDE WAS THAT DAY. AND IT WAS BRUTAL. 'CAUSE YOU HAVE TO RUN IT DOZENS OF TIMES AND EACH ONE OF THOSE TOOK A DAY. UH, BUT WHAT WAS INTERESTING WAS THE RESULT OF THAT SAID ACTUALLY, UH, THE, YOU CAN GET THE SAME FLOODPLAIN RESULT, THE SAME RESULT AS DOING ALL THOSE MODELS AND ADDING IT TOGETHER. YOU CAN GET THE SAME RESULT IF YOU JUST RUN THE MODEL, ASSUMING IT WAS HIGH TIDE THE WHOLE DAY, WHICH IS ALSO CONVENIENT 'CAUSE THAT'S THE WAY THE ARMY COURT DOES IT. AND THAT'S WHY WE'VE ALWAYS DONE IT IN THE PAST. AND DOING THIS PRETTY EXTENSIVE STUDY SAID THAT'S A FINE WAY OF DOING IT. WE DON'T HAVE TO GET REALLY SPECIFIC ABOUT, UH, WHEN THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN, WAS IT LOW TIDE DURING THAT HOUR? WAS IT HIGH TIDE DURING THAT HOUR? SO THAT'S ANOTHER REASON. FEEL COMFORTABLE USING THE HIGH TIDE. ALSO DOING, DOING THE MODELING DURING THE HIGH TIDE MATCHED THE STREAM GAUGES. SO WE KNOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE REAL BIG STORMS THAT WE HAVE HAD. THAT'S ANOTHER REASSURING. AND ANOTHER THING TO THINK OF IS BY TAKING THOSE HIGHER HIGH TIDES AND USING THAT AS OUR BENCHMARK, WE'RE KIND OF ALREADY INCLUDING PARTS OF THOSE KING TIDES BECAUSE THOSE KING TIDES THROUGH THE YEAR, THOSE WERE THE HIGHEST TIDES OF THAT DAY. SO WE'RE NOT USING SPECIFICALLY USING THE KING TIDE, BUT WE'RE PARTIALLY USING IT. WE'RE USING IT IN A WAY THAT MATCHES HOW WE'VE ALWAYS DONE IT. WE'RE USING IT IN A WAY THAT, UH, MATCHES A MORE DETAILED WAY OF DOING IT. AND WE'RE DOING IT IN A WAY THAT MATCHES THE STREAM GAUGE REAL WORLD ASSESSMENTS THAT WE ACTUALLY HAVE. AND WE TALKED SO LONG ABOUT THIS THAT I ACTUALLY HAVE SLIDES, , I CAN SHOW ABOUT IT. HAPPY TO DISCUSS IT MORE. 'CAUSE IT'S A REALLY INTERESTING PART OF THE MODELING PROCESS. COOL. IF I'M HEARING YOU CORRECTLY, WE'RE ALREADY USING PRETTY HIGH TIDES, SO WE'RE SORT OF GETTING ENOUGH OF THE WAY THERE WITHOUT ALSO LAYERING IN KING TIDES. OKAY. COOL. UM, ONE QUICK QUESTION THEN. ON THE WORST CASE SCENARIO, CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE LEVEL ASSESSMENT. DO CROSSTOWN CONNECTORS COUNT AS CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE? INTERESTING QUESTION. ANYONE OVER IN PLANNING WANT TO TAKE THAT ONE ? UM, I WOULD SAY THAT, UM, UH, FOR INSTANCE, THE, THE NEW, UH, CROSS SOUND CONNECTOR THAT IS IN DESIGN RIGHT NOW AT, UH, THE CAULFIELD BRIDGE IS INDEED TAKING THIS INTO ACCOUNT. AND WE ARE USING THE 6.9 FOOT NUMBER AND WE'RE BUILDING THAT THING ABOVE THAT, UH, FOR THAT VERY REASON. UM, SO YES, IT, IT IS IMPORTANT THAT WE TO THE, YOU KNOW, THAT WE START PAYING ATTENTION TO CIRCULATION AND, UM, AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPABILITIES IN, IN THOSE SITUATIONS. SO THE ANSWER IS YES, IT SHOULD BE CONSIDERED. UM, CAN WE DO IT ON ALL OF THEM? UM, I DON'T KNOW. PROBABLY NOT. UM, BUT WE CAN, UM, AND SHOULD AND WILL WITH OUR ADAPTATION PLAN, UM, LOOK AT THAT VERY CAREFULLY AND ESTABLISH, UM, UM, A BASIS OF CIRCULATION IN, IN A WORST CASE SCENARIO SO THAT [03:15:01] WE CAN MAINTAIN EMERGENCY RESPONSE. UM, AND, UH, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THAT EMERGENCY RESPONSE IS GONNA BE FLOATING. UM, RIGHT. BUT, BUT YEAH, IT IS IMPORTANT AND YEAH, WE NEED TO LOOK AT IT. DARREN. THANK YOU. UM, SO RIGHT NOW WE OBVIOUSLY HAVE THIS AS A MODEL. DOES IT REALLY GET TEETH FOR WHAT WE CAN REQUIRE FROM APPLICANTS AND PROPERTY OWNERS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE GENERAL PLAN AND THE IZO? UH, CAN WE MAKE ANY FINE, AND THIS IS KIND OF SPILLING OUT FROM THAT, BUT CAN WE MAKE FINDINGS ON A PROJECT BASED ON THIS INFORMATION? WILL THIS BE PART OF OUR PACKET? OR WILL THAT NOT HAPPEN UNTIL THIS IS FORMALIZED AS PART OF THOSE DOCUMENTS? WE WERE ACTUALLY JUST TALKING ABOUT THAT AND THINKING ABOUT OUR, OUR DIFFERENT, DIFFERENT WAYS TO LOOK AT IT. SO WHAT WE, WHAT I CAN TELL YOU IS THAT IN THE POLICY FRAMEWORK, THE RESILIENCY POLICY FRAMEWORK, WE HAVE BEEN LOOKING AT THAT AS TRYING TO BE EXPLICIT ENOUGH THAT THERE ARE STANDARDS THAT RESPOND TO THIS MODELING WITH ADOPTION OF THE GENERAL PLAN. ALSO, PROGRAMS THAT WHEN THE IZO OR WHATEVER IT'S CALLED AT THAT TIME, THE ZONING ORDINANCE IS UPDATED, THAT THOSE GET PULLED IN TO OUR REGULATORY DOCUMENT. SO IT'S CODIFIED, UM, AS WELL. SO THAT GETS US WHEN THE GENERAL PLAN IS ADOPTED, WHEN THE, UH, ZONING ORDINANCE, IT'S CODIFIED IN THERE. WHAT WE WERE JUST TALKING ABOUT IS THAT IN-BETWEEN, RIGHT. SO I THINK OYSTER COVE WAS A GREAT EXAMPLE OF AN APPLICANT WHO CAME TO THE TABLE. WE RAISED CONCERNS, THEY WERE WILLING PARTNERS, YOU KNOW, AND, AND WE WERE ABLE TO LOOK AT THOSE THINGS THAT WE DIDN'T, ARE NOT CURRENTLY CODIFIED. UM, AND, AND LOOK AT IT, WE HAVE OUR CQA, OUR ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS FOR PROJECTS, ALTHOUGH SEA LEVEL RISE, FOR EXAMPLE, IS CONSIDERED, IT IS NOT CAUSED BY THE PROJECT. SO IT'S NOT AN IMPACT OF THE PROJECT ON THE ENVIRONMENT. IT'S A MM-HMM. IMPACT OF THE ENVIRONMENT ON THE PROJECT. SO, UM, SO WE'RE, WE'RE STILL TALKING ABOUT MM-HMM, , WHAT COULD WE DO IN THE INTERIM? SO I DON'T, I DON'T HAVE A PERFECT ANSWER, BUT AT LEAST WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IT AND THINKING ABOUT IT AND, AND WE KNEW WE WOULD NEED TO BE HAVING THESE CONVERSATIONS. 'CAUSE WE KNEW WITH THE UPDATED MODELING, WE WERE THEN GONNA BE IN A SITUATION WHERE, WELL, NOW WE HAVE THIS INFORMATION, HOW DO WE INCORPORATE IT INTO OUR DAY TO DAY? SO THAT TOTALLY MAKES SENSE AND WAS KIND OF THE, THE TYPE OF ANSWER I WAS HOPING FOR. AND THEN WHEN IT COMES TO THE OPC GUIDANCE, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF THIS IS BASED ON THE 2018. DOES IT CHANGE ANYTHING OR IS THERE A REQUIREMENT, ESPECIALLY WHEN WE START MAKING THIS PART OF POLICY TO USE NEWER GUIDANCE BECAUSE WE ARE KINDA WATERFALLING FROM THAT STATE DOCUMENT? OR CAN WE SAY, NO, OUR CITY USES THIS OLDER GUIDANCE THAT'S A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE BECAUSE THAT'S WHAT WE WANNA DO. IS THERE ANYTHING TO CONSIDER THERE WITH THIS NEW DRAFT KIND OF ON THE WAY? UH, I'LL PREFACE SAYING I'M NOT A LAWYER. UM, I'M NOT AWARE OF ANY LAW THAT FORCES COMPLIANCE WITH THIS. UH, YOU KNOW, WHEN, WHEN THE 2024 GUIDANCE COMES OUT THAT SAYS ALL JUDICI MUST FOLLOW THIS, UM, I'M NOT AWARE OF A-B-C-D-C STANDARD, UH, THAT IT'S JUST GUIDANCE. IT'S JUST A GUIDANCE DOCUMENT. AND THE CITY IS THUS FAR, HAS JUST BEEN TAKING THE STANCE OF, AS SOON AS THERE IS, WE'LL USE THE MOST UPDATED LOCAL ADOPTED GUIDANCE THAT EXISTS. UM, SO PRETTY LOOKING FORWARD TO THE 2024 ONCE IT GETS ACTUALLY, UH, FIRMED UP AND, AND PUBLISHED. BUT IF OUR TEAM FINDS IT WANTING, WE'RE NOT STUCK WITH THAT GUIDANCE. AND WE CAN KIND OF, YOU CAN ALWAYS GO ABOVE. YES. OKAY. FANTASTIC. UH, AND THEN, YOU KNOW, WHEN WE'RE THINKING ABOUT HOW THESE CHANGES MIGHT SHOW UP, UH, IN REGULATION, YOU KNOW, FOR STAFF, THIS IS PROBABLY MANY CONVERSATIONS AND TONS OF DIFFERENT OPTIONS, BUT, UM, WHEN WE'RE THINKING ABOUT RIGHT NOW THE GENERAL PLAN, WE'RE DOING THE GENERAL PLAN LAND USE DISCUSSIONS, ALL IN THAT IS DEFINITIONS OF DIFFERENT ZONING AREAS. DO WE ANTICIPATE THIS UPDATING CHANGES TO ZONING CLASSIFICATION DEFINITIONS AS WE HAVE THEM NOW? OR WHAT IMPACTS DO WE ANTICIPATE THAT THIS WILL SPILL INTO? YOU'RE HAVING A HARD TIME WAITING FOR THE NEXT STEP, RIGHT? YOU WEREN'T SUPPOSED TO ASK THAT QUESTION THIS EVENING, . NO, WE ARE DEFINITELY LOOKING AT THIS ALSO. SO THE FRAMEWORK IS ONE THING. UM, THE, THE LAND USE DESIGNATIONS ARE ANOTHER THING. AND ARE THERE AREAS THAT WHAT THEY'RE DESIGNATED FOR NOW BASED ON THIS [03:20:01] MODELING THAT SHOULDN'T, SHOULDN'T BE DESIGNATED FOR THAT. UM, SO THAT'S, THAT'S DEFINITELY ANOTHER, IT, IT IS ALSO INFLUENCING THE LAND USE, WHICH IS WHY IT HAS TAKEN US LONGER THAN WE HAD ANTICIPATED, BECAUSE WE DIDN'T FEEL LIKE WE COULD ACTUALLY HAVE AN AUTHENTIC LAND USE DISCUSSION UNTIL WE HAD THIS FOUNDATIONAL INFORMATION, UM, TO HELP INFORM THIS. AND THAT WAS A COMMITMENT THAT WAS MADE WHEN THE RFP FOR THE GENERAL PLAN WAS RELEASED. AND WE SPENT ALL THIS TIME PUTTING THAT RFP TOGETHER AND BRINGING THIS WAS ONE OF THOSE KEY ISSUES THAT WE HAVE TO THINK ABOUT HOW WE PLAN FOR THE FUTURE IN PETALUMA GIVEN, YOU KNOW, OUR, OUR LOCAL CONTEXT AND, AND OUR, AND OUR FLOODING AND SEA LEVEL RISE AND CLIMATE CHANGE. SO, UM, THAT'S, IT IS DEFINITELY ALSO INFORMING THE DISCUSSION WITH LAND USE. YEAH, THAT MAKES A LOT OF SENSE. AND WHENEVER I THINK ABOUT THAT, I ALWAYS THINK ABOUT NEW PROJECTS OR NEW APPLICANTS, AND THIS AGAIN, MIGHT BE WAY JUMPING OVER, BUT IS THIS SOMETHING WE MIGHT ANTICIPATE AFFECTING EXISTING PROPERTY OWNERS, UM, AS THIS INFORMATION UPDATES, YOU KNOW, OUR DECISIONS AS A CITY, AND YOU CAN JUST SAY THIS IS TOO FAR IN THE FUTURE, BUT, UH, IF IF THEY HAVE TO WORRY ABOUT AN EXISTING REGULATORY LANDSCAPE, WILL WE ANTICIPATE REQUIRING RETROFITS TO MEET THESE STANDARDS? ANYTHING LIKE THAT? IT, WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT DIFFERENT THINGS AND DIFFERENT TRIGGERS, UM, YOU KNOW, TO, TO BE THINKING ABOUT. I CAN'T TELL YOU, I, I CAN'T SAY OFF THE TOP OF MY HEAD KIND OF A SPECIFIC, UM, BUT WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THAT. WE HAVE BEEN TALKING ABOUT THINGS. WHAT DO YOU, WHAT HAPPENS IF, UH, THERE'S A NATURAL DISASTER AND A STRUCTURE IS DOES, IS LOST? WHAT'S THE REBUILD PROCESS IF IT'S IN AN AREA, UH, ABOVE AN X AMOUNT OR SO, WE ARE TALKING ABOUT IT. I JUST DON'T HAVE A, LIKE A HIGHLIGHT REEL TO RATTLE OFF FOR YOU. I CAN, I CAN TRUST THE PROCESS. UH, BUT YEAH, IT'S JUST GOOD TO KNOW THAT THAT'S HAPPENING. AND THEN, DARREN, DO YOU HAVE A QUESTION SPECIFIC TO THE MODEL WE ARE LOOKING AT AND THE DATA WE ARE LOOKING AT? BECAUSE I JUST WANNA SAY HEATHER WAS REALLY CLEAR AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PRESENTATION YEAH. THAT THEY'RE LOOKING AT THESE THINGS, BUT NOT READY TO ANSWER YET. I, IT'S HARD FOR ME TO BE PATIENT, BUT DEFINITELY NOTED. SO THEN WHEN WE THINK ABOUT THE CITY PROJECTS AND PRIORITIZING, UM, YOU KNOW, SOME OF THE CONSIDERATIONS FOR INTERVENTIONS, THIS IS ON PAGE 38. UH, THE MODEL DOESN'T NECESSARILY ASSIGN A SCORE OR ASSIGN A PRIORITY. DOES ANYTHING ABOUT THIS MODELING PROCESS THAT WE'RE UNDERGOING RIGHT NOW ALLOW US TO START PRIORITIZING SOME OF THOSE PROJECTS? WHETHER IT'S, YOU KNOW, UM, MAKING INFRASTRUCTURE LIKE CONNECTORS MORE RESILIENT, WHETHER IT'S DOING REVITALIZATION OF MARSHLANDS, IS THERE ANYTHING ABOUT THIS THAT LETS US ASSIGN IMPACTS AND MAKE ANY PRIORITIZATIONS THAT WAY? I THINK THAT ADAPTATION PLAN THAT I REFERENCED EARLIER IS GOING TO, IS GOING TO PROVIDE THAT GUIDANCE. OKAY. SO NOT AT THIS TIME. AND SEBASTIAN, AND WE'RE TRYING TO PRE-WORK. UM, THIS, THE MODEL DOES NOT DO IT. IT'S A HAZARD ASSESSMENT. IT'S NOT AN IMPACT ASSESSMENT. UH, RIGHT. IT, SO, BUT THE 2022, THE 2020 LHMP DID CONSIDER LOCAL HAZARD MITIGATION. LOCAL HAZARD MITIGATION PLAN DID CONSIDER SOME SIMILAR SEAL LEVEL RISE SCENARIOS TO THIS. IT WAS NOT NEARLY AS NUANCED OF AN APPROACH AND IT DIDN'T CONSIDER THE, THE COMPLEMENTARY, UM, RAIN PLUS SEA LEVEL, BUT THERE'S SOME OKAY MAPS IN THERE. AND IT DID A FIRST ATTEMPT AT AN INVENTORY OF AFFECTED CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE. UM, SO THAT WOULD BE A START. THAT'S, THAT'S THE CURRENT DATA THAT WE HAVE ON IMPACT. IT'S BASED ON OLDER MODELING THAT'S NOT QUITE AS GOOD AT NOT AS GOOD AS THIS ONE. UH, BUT IT'S THE, IT'S A STARTING POINT FOR THAT'S THE MOST RECENT IMPACT ASSESSMENT THAT'S BEEN DONE. OKAY. FANTASTIC. UH, I'M DEFINITELY EXCITED FOR THOSE FUTURE MEETINGS, CLEARLY. BUT THOSE ARE ALL MY QUESTIONS. A COUPLE, UH, QUESTIONS FOR, UH, FIRST OFF, I'D LIKE TO, UH, THANK ALL OF YOU. YOU KNOW, I DON'T KNOW IF THIS IS CONSIDERED LIKE A CLOUD OF SCIENCE OR WHATEVER, BUT I DON'T THINK IT TAKES A SOPHISTICATED INVESTOR TO UNDERSTAND THAT, UH, WE'RE THE ONLY CITY THAT HAS A CRS DESIGNATION OF SIX, AND WE'RE WORKING ON A FIVE. AND SO THANK YOU FOR THAT. IN THIS COUNTY, IN YEAH, IN THIS COUNTY, RIGHT? MM-HMM. . AND SO RATHER THAN KEEP THIS INFORMATION IN THE DARK, YOU KNOW, FROM AN INVESTOR OR FROM, YOU KNOW, WHEN WE'RE GONNA GET PUSHBACK ON THIS INFORMATION, WE NEED TO MAKE IT CLEAR THAT WE'RE DOING BETTER JOB THAN ANYONE ELSE [03:25:01] IN THE COUNTY ON THIS. AND WE'RE BEING LEADERS. AND SO I PERSONALLY APPRECIATE HAVING THIS INFORMATION AND SPREADING IT WIDELY. UM, I DO THINK IN FUTURE CONVERSATIONS, THE ROLE OF THE, UH, ZONE TWO, A FLOOD CONTROL AGENCY COULD POSSIBLY BE BETTER HIGHLIGHTED. THERE WAS A SECTION IN THE REPORT THAT TALKED ABOUT THE COPELAND CREEK FLOOD CONTROL PROJECT AND THE 9% REDUCTION IN FLOWS, YOU KNOW, AND SO THERE'S ALREADY PROJECTS IN THE QUEUE IN THE HOPPER THAT ARE BEING WORKED ON. I YOU MENTIONED YOU MIGHT EVEN BE ON THAT AGENCY OR AT ONE TIME WERE, AND SO IF WE HAVE EXPERTS IN THIS CITY THAT ARE ALREADY WORKING ON THIS, LIKE, YOU KNOW, HOW MUCH BETTER OFF ARE WE? AND SO I'D REALLY LIKE TO HIGHLIGHT THE, THE ROLE OF THAT PARTICULAR OBSCURE, UH, AGENCY. WELL, THAT'S A GOOD POINT. AS WELL'S. YEAH. AND, AND I SHOULD NOTE THAT ZONE TWO A FUNDED, UH, A LARGE PORTION OF THE FLOOD MODEL AND MAPPING WORK BY A GRANT THAT I HAD SUBMITTED, I THINK MAYBE THREE YEARS AGO, TWO, THREE YEARS AGO. AND THEY COVERED A HUGE PORTION OF, OF THIS, THIS EFFORT. THEY DON'T COVER SEA LEVEL RISE THAT'S NOT IN THEIR PURVIEW. AND, AND AS A, AS A FUNDING SOURCE, THEY ALSO WILL NOT COVER FEMA MAPPING PER SE, BUT THEY WILL COVER THE FLOODPLAIN PIECE OF IT BEFORE IT GOES TO FEMA. SO THEY'VE BEEN A GREAT PARTNER, AMAZING PARTNER, UM, AN AMAZING PARTNER WHOSE FUNDING IS ALSO DWINDLING. I SHOULD KNOW, UM, . UH, BUT YEAH, ZONE TWO A HAS BEEN A GREAT PARTNER. AND I, UH, I'M A LIAISON TO THAT COMMITTEE, UH, FOR THE CITY. AND SEBASTIAN, YOU WANNA SAY ANYTHING ELSE ABOUT ZONE TWO A? YEAH, I ATTEND THOSE MEETINGS JUST 'CAUSE I'M A GLUTTON FOR PUNISHMENT . AND, UM, THE LAST MEETING WAS ACTUALLY REALLY INTERESTING, GOOD CONVERSATION ABOUT THEIR EFFORT. UH, IT'S MOSTLY A, IT'S ACTUALLY A REGIONAL SUN, SNOW COUNTY WIDE EFFORT TO BETTER PREDICT THESE FUTURE RAIN EVENTS. HOW MUCH MORE INTENSE DO THE RAINFALL DOES THE RAINFALL GET? AND LET'S MAKE SURE WE'RE DESIGNING OUR FLOOD CONTROL SYSTEMS FOR FUTURE RAIN INTENSITY, NOT JUST 2023 RAIN INTENSITY THAT'S UNDERWAY. UM, WE'RE ACTUALLY HOPING TO GET THAT, THOSE PRODUCTS FROM SONOMA WATER'S ACTUALLY DOING THE SCIENCE ON IT, HOPING TO GET THOSE PRODUCTS SOMETIME THIS YEAR. UH, 'CAUSE YEAH, ABSOLUTELY. THE, THERE'S GONNA BE A CONTINUED NEED AND AN INCREASED NEED TO ADDRESS THE CLIMATE HAZARD OF RAINFALL, PARTICULARLY AS THE RAINFALL GETS MORE INTENSE. UH, I THINK THE, THE, TO ME, IF I REALLY ZOOM BACK TO THE PETALUMA CONVERSATION ABOUT, ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT TO, TO FLOOD HAZARD IS THAT WE'VE HISTORICALLY MOSTLY BEEN A CITY CONCERNED WITH RAINFALL. UM, THAT'S WHERE OUR HAZARDS WERE, AND THAT'S WHERE OUR PROTECTIONS WERE INVESTED. UH, WHAT THESE MAPS SHOW IS THAT YES, RAINFALL, FLOODING AS RAIN, AS PRECIPITATION GETS WORSE, IT DOES START GETTING MORE INTENSE. AND WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO, UH, YOU KNOW, KEEP STAY VIGILANT WITH OUR UPSTREAM FLOOD CONTROL, FLOOD PROTECTION, UH, PROJECTS. BUT OVER THE DECADES, WE START GROWING THIS, THIS CONCERN, THIS LOOMING CONCERN FROM THE BAY STARTS GROWING. IT STARTS BECOMING, UH, IT STARTS BECOMING MORE OF A SHARED HAZARD, UH, TO THE CITY WHERE WE START CURRENTLY, WE LOOK UPSTREAM FOR FLOOD CONTROL AND A LITTLE BIT BEHIND US. WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO START LOOKING MORE AND MORE BOTH DIRECTIONS. UH, AND THAT MEANS STRATEGY CHANGES TO HOW WE DO FLOOD CONTROL, BECAUSE YOU PROTECT FROM STORM SURGE VERY DIFFERENTLY THAN YOU PROTECT FROM RAINFALL. UM, SO I, FOR FOR ME, THAT'S THE OVERALL CONVERSATION IS IT STARTS A, IT'S NOT FUNDAMENTALLY NEW THINGS. WE'VE BEEN DOING FLOOD CONTROL, WE'VE BEEN DOING FLOOD MODELING FOR DECADES NOW, AND WE'VE BEEN, YOU KNOW, REALLY ACTIVE IN THE CRS SYSTEM. WHAT, WHAT CLIMATE CHANGE SAYS IS WE HAVE TO EXPAND TO, UH, MORE OF AN EQUAL VISION UPSTREAM AND DOWNSTREAM TO FLOOD HAZARD. THANK YOU FOR THAT. YOU KNOW, AND IF THERE'S THE OPPORTUNITY TO INVITE SOME OF THE EXPERTS FROM THE ZONE TWO A TO PARTICIPATE IN SOME OF THE POLICY MAKING DISCUSSIONS, I THINK THEY WOULD BE SOME INFORMED MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC. UM, I HAVE JUST, THEY, BY THE WAY, THEY, WE GAVE THIS PRESENTATION TO ZONE TWO A COUPLE MONTHS AGO, MAYBE JANUARY OR SOMETHING. YEAH. I JUST, YOU KNOW, IF THEY CAN INFORM THE POLICY DISCUSSION, YOU KNOW, IN ADDITION TO COM COUNCIL OR COMMISSION MEMBER KUSON OF COURSE. UM, A A CLARIFYING QUESTION AND THEN I GUESS TWO COMMENTS. THE, THE UP UPSTREAM OF PAY RAN THERE, THE IMPACT STOP FROM SEA LEVEL RISE, WAS THAT BECAUSE OF THE WEIR OR IS THAT A COINCIDENCE? [03:30:02] I DON'T THINK IT'S, THAT WAS JUST SORT OF A DEMARCATION THAT WAS COINCIDENTAL BECAUSE SOME OF THE MAPS, IT GOES UP AS FAR AS THE, THE 1.9 FOOT IMPACTS GO UP TO ABOUT WASHINGTON STREET, AND THEN THE 3.4 FOOT IMPACTS SEEMED TO GO UP TO AROUND PAY RAN, AND THEN, AND THEN THE 6.9, UH, TOOK US UP THAT MUCH FURTHER TO THE WEIR. SO I THINK WHAT YOU'RE JUST SEEING, WE'RE JUST USING OUR LOCAL LANDMARKS TO HELP IDENTIFY WHERE THOSE WERE. OKAY. IT'S COINCIDENCE. IT'S PROBABLY COINCIDENCE, PROBABLY. OKAY. YEAH, THAT, THAT'S RIGHT. . OKAY. UM, AND THEN I GUESS JUST TWO FINAL COMMENTS. SO, UH, THE FIRST BASIC ONE, THE, UM, THE LITTLE MAP OF THE CREEKS IN THE UPPER LEFT HAND CORNER, I THOUGHT THAT WAS ACTUALLY REALLY GOOD. I DON'T KNOW IF THERE ARE BETTER MAPS OF THE CREEKS, BUT I WOULD RATHER THAN HAVE THAT BE A TINY MAP, I WOULD LIKE TO SEE THAT JUST BE A FULL MAP IN SOME OF THE PRESENTATIONS, YOU KNOW, LIKE WIGGINS CREEK AND, YOU KNOW, LIBERTY CREEK, UH, OVER THERE IN, UM, THE, THE KOA AREA. RIGHT. AND SO, UM, I KNOW WE'RE NOT GONNA TALK ABOUT THIS YET, BUT, UM, WHEN WE DO GET TO THE TOPIC OF ENVIRONMENTAL JUSTICE IN THE GENERAL PLAN, YOU KNOW, LEISURE LAKE FLOODS ALL THE TIME, RIGHT? AND SO MY LAST COMMENT IS I WOULD REALLY LIKE TO SEE A MAP OF THE FLOODING THAT WE KNOW HAS OCCURRED. OKAY. AND SO THAT WE CAN KNOW LEISURE LAKE FLOODS ALL THE TIME. AND THAT'S NOT A MAP OF A 1% PROBABILITY OR A ONE IN A MILLION PROBABILITY OR WHATEVER IT IS. IT'S A MAP OF THE MOST RECENT FLOODING. AND SO PEOPLE JUST HAVE THAT MAP AND IT SHOWS THE PEOPLE IN LEISURE LAKE NEED OUR HELP. AND SO I WOULD LIKE TO SEE A MAP THAT SHOWS THE RECENT FLOODING THAT WE'VE HAD. YOU WANT. YEAH, PAM? UM, YEAH, I'VE ONLY BEEN HERE SINCE 84, SO I'M BY FAR NOT A, A LOCAL, UM, UH, LIKE SO MANY PEOPLE ARE. BUT TO MY KNOWLEDGE, UH, LEISURE LAKE IS ACTUALLY ONLY FLOODED ONCE. BUT WHAT HAPPENS IS IT GETS ISOLATED COMPLETELY ON ALMOST, NOT ANNUALLY, BUT PRETTY, YOU'RE EXACTLY RIGHT. IT GETS ISOLATED. AND BECAUSE OF THE, UM, UM, AGE OF A LOT OF THE RESIDENTS OF LEISURE LAKE, THAT'S NOT WHERE WE WANT THEM IF THEY NEED HELP. UM, AND THAT'S WHERE WE END UP USING THE BOAT OR, OR, UM, YOU KNOW, GETTING MORE AMPHIBIOUS TYPE OF VEHICLES OR WE CUT FENCES AND DO THING GOOFY THINGS LIKE THAT. SO WE'VE EVACUATED THEM. I, I CAN THINK OF BEING AN EO C3 OR FOUR TIMES WHERE WE'VE ASKED THEM TO VAC EVACUATE TO THE COMMUNITY CENTER JUST SO THAT WE CAN KEEP THEM DRY AND WARM AND IN CASE ANYTHING HAPPENS, YOU KNOW, WE CAN GET THEM FED BECAUSE ELECTRICITY GETS CUT OFF. UM, YOU KNOW, THINGS LIKE THAT. BUT, BUT I ACTUALLY CAN ONLY REMEMBER WATER IN THE PARK ONCE, UM, YOU KNOW, WITH WATER UNDERNEATH SOME OF THE UNITS, LEISURE, UM, PETALUMA STATES AND YOUNGSTOWN IS DIFFERENT. IT GETS WATER, UM, IN, IN IT FROM BOTH, UH, COMING FROM THE SWALE THAT USED TO BE, UH, PARALLEL, UM, NEXT TO THE FREEWAY, IT'S STILL PARALLEL, BUT NOW IT'S ON THE OTHER, IT'S ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE SOUND WALL AND ALSO FROM THE OVERFLOW THAT GOES ALONG. THE RAILROAD TURNS RIGHT AND GOES INTO THAT DITCH ALONG CORONA ROAD, THEN OUT OVERFLOWS RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE FIRE DEPARTMENT AND TRACKS DOWN SOUTH MCDOWELL AND GOES INTO YOUNGSTOWN FIRST. UM, AND HAS IN THE PAST GONE INTO PLUMS STATES, BOTH FROM THE BACK AND THE FRONT. YEAH. THANKS. I, I APPRECIATE IT. YOU KNOW, I THINK WE JUST, WE NEED A BASIC MAP. EVERYONE CAN TALK ABOUT, YOU KNOW, HOW DO WE HELP THESE PEOPLE? UM, JUST HAD ONE. UM, CAN YOU COMMENT ON WHAT THE INSURANCE INDUSTRY USES, UM, UM, AROUND THESE TOOLS? ARE, ARE THEY USING THE SAME TOOLS TO YOUR KNOWLEDGE THAT, UM, THAT YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT HERE, UM, IN ORDER TO, YOU KNOW, ASSESS THEIR RISK AND UNDERWRITING POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENTS? SO THE, THE FEMA MAP THAT I FLASHED ON THE SCREEN THAT WE HAD, THE QUESTION ABOUT THE HATCHING ON THAT IS THE FLOOD INSURANCE RATE MAP. THAT IS WHAT THE INSURERS USE. UM, OKAY. DO THEY GO ABOVE AND BEYOND THAT TO ACTUALLY ASSESS THEIR RISK? I MEAN, THAT, THAT MIGHT BE WHAT THEY USE TO, UM, YOU KNOW, DETERMINE RATES. BUT IN TERMS OF A, A GO NO GO. [03:35:02] UM, THE, YOU KNOW, IS THERE A, I DON'T KNOW THAT I CAN ANSWER THAT. PAM, DO YOU HAVE ANY INSIGHT THAT YOU COULD SHARE? UM, THAT MOST FLOOD INSURANCE POLICIES ARE THROUGH THE NFIP THROUGH FEMA. UM, AND THEY USE THE RATE MAP AND, UM, THEY, UH, QUITE OFTEN THE INSURANCE COMPANIES WILL CALL THE OFFICE OF THE FLOODPLAIN ADMINISTRATOR. AND WE, UM, THROUGH THE CRS SYSTEM, WE HAVE DEVELOPED A FORM THAT GIVES FLOOD DEPTH, FLOOD HISTORY, UM, EVERYTHING THAT THEY CAN USE, UM, TO DETERMINE. BUT, UM, IT'S MY UNDERSTANDING, I, I NEVER HAD TO BUY FLOOD INSURANCE, THANKFULLY, BUT, BUT I, BUT I BELIEVE IT'S PRETTY MUCH GUARANTEED. UM, IF, IF YOU GO THROUGH THE NFIP PROGRAM AND THAT, AND THERE'S A LOT OF INFORMATION THAT WE'VE MADE A AVAILABLE TO THE PUBLIC, UM, THAT IS BROCHURES FROM FEMA ON HOW TO OBTAIN INSURANCE. AND, UM, THE, UH, STATE LAW REAL ESTATE DISCLOSURES ARE, ARE PRETTY STRICT ON, ON WHAT THEY, WHAT THEIR REQUIREMENTS ARE TO INFORM THEIR CLIENT. SO DOES THAT ANSWER YOUR QUESTION? YEAH, YEAH. SUPER. IT DOES. THANK YOU. WELL, I'D JUST LIKE TO REITERATE, UH, APPRECIATE YOUR WORK IN THIS AREA IN ORDER TO, TO THE BENEFIT OF, OF, UH, OUR CITIZENS TO BE ABLE TO, YOU KNOW, GET MORE COMPETITIVE RATES. SO THANKS FOR DOING THAT AS A SECONDARY BENEFIT. JANICE, I WANNA COMMENT ON LEISURE LAKE. I BELIEVE THEY PUT A, LIKE A WALL AROUND THERE AFTER THE FLOODING, UH, YOU KNOW, TO THE NORTH OF, UH, OR SOUTH OF THE, UM, PUMPKIN FARM. I THINK THAT WAS BUILT TO KEEP THE FLOODING FROM STOPPING. THERE IS A, YEAH, THERE IS AN UNCERTIFIED LEVEE, UM, THAT RUNS RIGHT ALONG, UM, WILLOWBROOK BETWEEN HIGHWAY 1 0 1, STONY POINT. UM, AND, UM, I MOST RECENTLY TALKED TO FEMA, NOT TO FEMA, I'M SORRY, US ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS, THE MANAGER OF LEVIES AND DAMS, UM, DIVISION. AND, UM, 'CAUSE WE'RE TRYING TO FIND FUND, UM, TO, UM, LOOK AT OUR MANMADE LEVEES OR OUR OLD PRIVATE PROPERTY LEVIES EVEN, BUT ARE THAT HAVE PUBLIC BENEFIT TO SEE IF THERE'S ANY FUNDS, HAVEN'T FOUND ANY YET, BUT WE'RE GONNA CONTINUE ASKING. BUT THAT'S, YOU'RE, YOU'RE EXACTLY RIGHT. THAT WAS A, A, A ERECTED MANY, MANY YEARS AGO. AND IT DOES STOP WILLOWBROOK FROM GOING IN THAT DIRECTION. IT DOESN'T STOP IT FROM COMING IN OFF OF THE OLD DENMAN ROAD EXTENSION THAT SERVICES LEISURE LAKE, UM, FROM STONY POINT. BUT, BUT ANY PARTICULAR TO THAT POINT, THAT LEVY, BECAUSE IT'S UNCERTIFIED, I BELIEVE THAT WE DID NOT, UM, MODEL THAT, UH, IN THESE, IN THESE MAPS, WE ASSUME IT ISN'T THERE BECAUSE IT'S AN UNCERTIFIED LEVY. IS THAT CORRECT, DAVE? YES. UH, IN FACT, WE HAD TO WORK VERY HARD TO SHOW BING WITHOUT THAT BERM THERE, BECAUSE IT'S THERE IN THE TERRAIN. WE HAD TO MANUALLY REMOVE IT, SEE WHAT WOULD HAPPEN IN THE FLOODING, BECAUSE FEMA WILL NOT ALLOW US TO ASSUME THAT THAT IS THERE BECAUSE IT'S NOT A CERTIFIED STRUCTURE. I GUESS THIS IS WHY IN EUROPE, THEY BUILD UP ON THE HILLS AND THE FLAT AREA IS, UM, NOT DEVELOPED . BUT WE DIDN'T LEARN, DID WE? BUT I, I DO HAVE A QUESTION. LIKE, YOU KNOW, WHEN I WAS LITTLE, I MEAN, WASHINGTON STREET FLOODED, LAKEVILLE FLOODED AND THEY PUT LIKE, PUMPING STATIONS IN. SO WHAT'S GONNA HAPPEN TO THE PUMPING STATIONS? I MEAN, WILL THEY BE EFFECTIVE WITH SEA LEVEL, SEA LEVEL RISE? OR ARE THEY, WHAT HAPPENS WITH THOSE? OR DO WE HAVE TO REBUILD IN A DIFFERENT WAY? LIKE YOU'RE SAYING, BUILDING OUT, YOU KNOW, MAYBE STORAGE AREAS? UM, I'LL GIVE YOU THE, THE GOOD NON-ANSWER. THE, THE, IT DEPENDS. THE, SOME OF THEM WILL CONTINUE TO WORK PRETTY MUCH AS DESIGNED AND AS PREVIOUSLY, UM, THEY MIGHT BE STRESSED OR REACH CAPACITY DUE TO CHANGING RAINFALL CONDITIONS. UM, AND IF, IF THERE'S MORE RAINFALL, MAYBE THE PUMP WASN'T BUILT FOR THAT AMOUNT OF RAINFALL, SOME OF THEM, IF THE, IF THE NATURE OF THE FLOOD THAT IS HITTING THEM CHANGES, THEY MIGHT NOT BE CAPABLE OF HANDLING IT. SO, FOR EXAMPLE, A PUMP STATION, UH, A PUMP STATION BEHIND A LEVEE THAT WAS JUST DESIGNED TO PUMP THE WATER THAT WAS RAINING INTO THAT NEIGHBORHOOD. BUT NOW THAT NEIGHBORHOOD, THAT LEVEE GETS OVERTOPPED, OKAY. IT'S A COMPLETELY DIFFERENT FLOOD SCENARIO THAT THAT'S PUMP SYSTEM HAS TO DEAL WITH. NO, IT'S NOT GOING TO, PROBABLY NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO HANDLE THAT. SIMILARLY, LET'S SAY THERE'S A, IT'S A PUMP SYSTEM THAT'S REALLY JUST DESIGNED TO DRAIN RAINFALL OUT OF A NEIGHBORHOOD. BUT NOW IT'S ACTUALLY GETTING, UM, [03:40:01] WATER IS MOVING BACKWARDS FROM THE RIVER. YOU KNOW, STORM SURGE IS NOW DUMPING WATER INTO THAT AREA. WELL, IT, IT'D BE LIKE TRYING TO BAIL WATER OUT OF A, OUT OF A ROWBOAT WHILE A FIRE HOSE IS REFILLING THE ROWBOAT. IT'S NOT DESIGNED TO DO THAT. SO IT'LL BE A, IT'LL BE VERY MUCH A SITE SPECIFIC EVALUATION OF THE INFRASTRUCTURE. AND THIS GOES TO THE FLOOD ADAPTATION MASTER PLAN THAT SAYS, WHAT ASSETS DO WE HAVE? HOW DO THOSE EVOLVE OVER TIME AS THE FLOOD DYNAMICS CHANGE? MAYBE 'CAUSE THEY JUST GOT A LITTLE BIT INCREMENTALLY WORSE, OR MAYBE 'CAUSE THERE WAS A FUNDAMENTAL SHIFT TO HOW, UH, FLOOD IS AFFECTING THAT AREA. ALL OF A SUDDEN IT IS GETTING INUNDATED FOR A DAY BECAUSE OF KING TIDE. UH, IS IT DESIGNED TO HANDLE THAT? WHAT DOES IT HAVE TO, HOW DOES IT HAVE TO BE MODIFIED? AND I THINK A A CASE EXAMPLE OF THIS IS THE OUTFLOW AT ELLIS CREEK, WHICH WAS EVALUATED FOR, OH, IT IS, IT IS VULNERABLE TO CERTAIN REALLY HIGH STORM SURGE AMOUNTS. AND IT COULD BACKFLOW, UH, SEA WATER, SALT WATER INTO THE TREATMENT SYSTEM. SITE SPECIFIC EVALUATION. SAID OKAY, THAT CAN BE SOLVED WITH A IMPROVED BACKFLOW DEVICE, IMPROVED, UH, ONE WAY VALVE. SO IT, IT, THOSE SORTS OF EVALUATIONS DO GET SITE SPECIFIC. ALL RIGHT. UM, I HAVE A FEW QUESTIONS AND THEN A COMMENT. UH, YOU, YOU HAD MENTIONED THE FUTURE RAIN DATA WAS PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT TO MODEL 'CAUSE THERE JUST ISN'T A CONSISTENT SOURCE. BUT YOU, YOU ALSO SAID THERE'D BE GUIDANCE IN THE SUMMER. I WAS WONDERING WHAT THAT MEANT. THE SONOMA WATER AGENCY IS WORKING ON THEIR CLIMATE DOWNSCALING PROJECT. IT HAS AN ACRONYM THAT I CAN NEVER REMEMBER. IT'S GOT A Q IN IT. UM, AND QA, QA CP, LET'S GO WITH THAT. AND WHAT IT'S BASICALLY DOING IS THERE ARE STATEWIDE MODELS OF HOW MUCH MORE INTENSE MIGHT RAINSTORMS GET. MM-HMM. . BUT THEY'RE UP AT THE STATE LEVEL. MM-HMM. , THEY, THEY NEED TO BE REFINED DOWN TO A WATERSHED LEVEL BECAUSE YOU CAN'T JUST MAKE A BLANKET STATEMENT THAT SAYS, AH, RAINFALL IN THE PETALUMA AREA WILL GET 5% MORE INTENSE. . WELL, MAYBE IN TOWN IT'LL BE TWO, AND MAYBE ON THE MOUNTAIN IT'LL BE EIGHT MM-HMM. . SO YOU NEED TO DOWNSCALE THESE CLIMATE MODELS AND, AND THERE ARE MULTIPLE CLIMATE MODELS THAT HAVE TO BE DONE. AND IT'S THIS WHOLE STATISTICAL PROCESS THAT I DO NOT UNDERSTAND AT ALL. AND, UH, BUT THEY ASSURE US THAT THEY'RE WORKING ON IT AND THEY'RE HOPING TO BE ABLE TO PROVIDE GUIDANCE. SOMETIMES THIS YEAR THEY'RE USING IT TO, FOR FLOOD CONTROL PLAN IN THE OTHER FLOOD DISTRICTS, INCLUDING ZONE TWO A MM-HMM. . UM, AND THEY'RE ALSO USING IT TO INFORM OTHER SORTS OF WATER PROJECTS, FORECASTING FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT, SOME OTHER EFFORTS. IT'S, UH, YEAH, IT'S PROBABLY THE TOOL THAT WILL HELP US BE ABLE TO GO INTO THIS MODEL AGAIN AND SAY, OKAY, LET'S BRING UP THE RAINFALL SO THAT 2050 MAPS. DON'T JUST LOOK AT WHAT FLOODS LOOK LIKE WITH 2050 SEA LEVEL RISE. ALSO LOOK AT THE 2050 RAINFALL. SORRY TO INTERRUPT, BUT WE LOST, UH, SEBASTIAN'S MIC ONLINE. , THAT'S THE, OKAY. THANK YOU. UM, I KNOW THERE'S A LITTLE BIT OF JUST, YEAH, COUNCIL MEMBER CATER THOMPSON DOESN'T HAVE A MONITOR AND DOESN'T HAVE A MIC. SHE'S SHUT DOWN. . UH, I'M JUST GONNA MOVE PAST THAT COMMENT. UH, THERE'S QUITE A BIT OF DISCUSSION ABOUT HOW THE, THE MODEL REALLY DOESN'T MAP FLOOR ELEVATION AS IT CURRENTLY STANDS. I HAD A FEW QUESTIONS RELATED TO THAT. ONE, WOULD THE DISPLACEMENT IN ANY SIGNIFICANT WAY CHANGE THE FOOTPRINT OF WHERE SOME OF THE WATER IS MAPPED? TWO, WOULD THIS ALSO, IF IT DID MODEL THE GROUND FLOOR SUCCESSFULLY, WOULD IT ALSO CHANGE HOW THE MODEL TREATS QUICK FLOWING WATER VERSUS KIND OF A SLOWER, WELL, I DON'T REALLY KNOW HOW TO FRAME SLOWER MOVING FLOODS, [03:45:01] BUT, AND, AND THEN FINALLY, DOES THIS ALSO FALL IN THE CATEGORY OF, IT WOULD BE NICE TO HAVE, BUT THE MODEL ALREADY TAKES 24 HOURS AND IT WOULD BE SO MUCH MORE DETAIL THAT YOU JUST CAN'T GET INTO IT RIGHT NOW, DAVE? YEAH, I GUESS TO THAT LAST POINT, FIRST, I, I DON'T REALLY THINK THAT WOULD BE AN ISSUE. UM, BUT YEAH, IT'S REALLY NOT THE, THE STANDARD FOR, UH, A FEMA ANALYSIS TO, UH, INCLUDE THE, UH, THE FINISHED FLOOR ELEVATIONS JUST BECAUSE THAT INFORMATION USUALLY ISN'T PART OF THE TOPOGRAPHY. SURE. AND IT WOULD REQUIRE QUITE A BIT OF WORK TO GO IN AND GET THOSE SURVEYED AND ADD THEM TO THE MODEL, UH, OR, YOU KNOW, TO DIG UP THE RECORDS OR WHAT HAVE YOU. SO THAT'S NOT A TYPICAL STEP, UH, IN THE FLOODPLAIN MODELING. UM, BUT THERE IS A SUBSEQUENT STEP THAT CAN HAPPEN AFTER THE MAPPING, WHICH IS TO DO ELEVATION CERTIFICATES AND REMOVE INDIVIDUAL, UH, AREAS, UM, THAT ARE HIGHER THAN THE, THE A HUNDRED YEAR FLOODPLAIN. MM-HMM. . UM, BUT THERE'S SOME DISCUSSION. I KNOW THE CITY, WE TALKED ABOUT THIS, AND THERE'S A DIFFERENCE BETWEEN JUST THE PAD ELEVATION VERSUS THE PROPERTY. UH, SOME INSURANCE MAY LOOK AT YOUR PROPERTY AND SEE THAT YOUR PROPERTY BOUNDARY IS IN THE FLOODPLAIN AND STILL HIT YOU WITH INSURANCE, EVEN IF THE STRUCTURE IS NOT. AND SO THE CITY'S AWARE OF THIS, AND WE'VE TALKED ABOUT THIS, BUT UM, YEAH, WE ARE TAKING CARE IN THE MODEL TO REPRESENT CLEARLY WHETHER THE PROPERTY IS WET OR NOT. AND WE ARE LOOKING AT THE ONES THAT ARE BORDERLINE VERY CAREFULLY. GOT IT. SO I TAKE IT THAT'S YOUR WAY OF SAYING THAT THE ONES THAT ARE BORDERLINE ARE THE ONES WHERE DISPLACEMENT MIGHT BE MORE LIKELY. SO YOU'RE TRYING TO KIND OF OPTION BY OPTION, FIGURE OUT WHAT TO ADD IN THAT MIGHT NOT NECESSARILY SHOW OUT, SHOW UP WITHOUT THE DISPLACEMENT FROM GROUND FLOOR ELEVATION? I MEAN, I THINK THE DISPLACEMENT ISSUE, UH, WHAT I'M SAYING IS THAT THE TOPOGRAPHY, WE'RE USING THE BARE EARTH LIDAR, THAT IS REALLY ALL THE DISPLACEMENT WE'RE GOING TO CONSIDER. GOT IT. WE'RE NOT GONNA GO IN AND LOOK AT, YOU KNOW, A WALL OR A STRUCTURE OR A BUILDING, AND WHETHER THAT'S DISPLACING THE FLOW, WE'RE LOOKING AT THE BEAR OF TOPOGRAPHY AND LETTING THE MODEL RUN WITH THAT. UM, AND THAT IS THE, THE STANDARD FOR DOING FLOODPLAIN MAPPING. AND DAVE, CAN YOU SPEAK TO WHAT THE ROUGHNESS COEFFICIENT THAT'S APPLIED UNDER THE FOOTPRINT OF A BUILDING IS HOW THAT AFFECTS THE WATER FLOW AROUND OR THROUGH A BUILDING? YEAH, I MEAN IT, YEAH, IT GETS INTO THE WEEDS A LITTLE BIT. UH, BUT YES, YOU CAN, YOU CAN ADD, YOU KNOW, A DIFFERENT ROUGHNESS FOR THE BUILDING. WE ARE CONSIDERING THAT THE BUILDINGS THEMSELVES ARE A HIGHER ROUGHNESS. UM, SO THE WATER WILL SLOW DOWN AS IT'S GOING THROUGH A BUILDING, WHICH IS EXACTLY WHAT WOULD HAPPEN. UH, IF YOUR HOUSE IS GETTING FLOODED, YOU WILL SEE THAT THE WATER IS NOT MOVING FAST THROUGH YOUR LIVING ROOM, . IT'S JUST THIS SLOW RISING LEVEL. AND SO THE MODEL IS CAPTURING THAT. GOT IT. THANK YOU. AND THE ONLY REASON I FLAGGED IT, IT WASN'T WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF FEMA MAPPING, IT WAS ONLY WITHIN THE CONTEXT OF A LOT OF OUR DEVELOPMENT PATTERNS MOVED TOWARDS STRUCTURES BEING THAT MUCH CLOSER TOGETHER AND DISTANCES BETWEEN THEM SHRINKING. SO I CAN JUST SEE WHERE ON A GRANULAR LEVEL THIS MIGHT BE HELPFUL DOWN THE ROAD, THAT'S ALL. SURE. UH, UH, AND THEN I JUST WANTED TO SAY ALMOST ALL THOSE MAPS DECIMATE HIGHWAY 37, AND AS A COMMUTER, THAT WAS ABSOLUTELY TERRIFYING. UM, OH, SO FOR THE DEFINITION FOR CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE PROJECTS, HOW EXPANSIVE IS THAT? THIS WAS ADDRESSED A LITTLE BIT WITH WHETHER OR NOT A CROSS TOWN CONNECTOR INCLUDED, BUT HOW ARE YOU TYPICALLY DEFINING CRITICAL INFRASTRUCTURE FOR THE, I THINK IT WAS THE 6.9 FEET CONCERN AND THERE, AND THERE'S DISCRETION ON TOP OF THAT. YEAH. SO THE, THE, THE FIRST START THAT WE'VE BEEN CONCEIVING FOR THAT, 'CAUSE IT'S A NEW, IT'S A NEW POLICY APPROACH. MM-HMM. FOR THE CITY. UM, WHAT WE'VE BEEN LEANING INTO CURRENTLY IS, UH, AMERICAN SOCIETY OF CIVIL ENGINEERS TABLE. UH, IT'S FROM A DOCUMENT ON FLOOD SAFETY OF STRUCTURES, UM, DOCUMENT 12 DASH 24 TABLE, I CAN'T REMEMBER. AND IT BASICALLY LISTS OUT FLOOD HAZARD CLASSES OF BUILDINGS GOING FROM A CLASS ONE OF BUILDINGS THAT ARE NOT SIGNIFICANT. UM, BUILDINGS THAT ARE RATHER RISK TOLERANT, AS IN IF THEY ARE AFFECTED BY FLOODING, IT IS PROBABLY NOT VERY EXPENSIVE. IT'S NOT ENVIRONMENTALLY DAMAGING, AND THERE'S NOT A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TO THE GENERAL, UH, PUBLIC, UH, SAFETY THREAT. MM-HMM. . AND THAT RAMPS UP THROUGH, YOU KNOW, A LOT OF STRUCTURES ARE IN THE TWO AND THREE CATEGORY, AND THEN UP AT CATEGORY FOUR ARE THOSE MOST INTENSE. AND THAT'S WHERE YOU FIND THINGS LIKE EMERGENCY SERVICES, CRITICAL, UM, UTIL CRITICAL UTILITIES THAT PROVIDE OR, OR THREATEN HUMAN SAFETY IF THEY'RE NOT, UH, IF, IF THEY LOSE FUNCTION, UM, CERTAIN HIGH VOLUME GATHERING PLACES, PARTICULARLY IF THEY PROVIDE EMERGENCY FUNCTION LIKE A SHELTER, UH, EMERGENCY [03:50:01] SERVICES. SO IT'S GOT A LIST OF, UH, BUT IT ALSO THROWS THINGS IN THERE LIKE, UH, UH, A HAZARDOUS WASTE FACILITY BECAUSE THAT HAS, UH, INCREASED PUBLIC, UH, HAZARD IF IT WAS AFFECTED BY FLOODS. SO THAT'S OUR STARTING POINT. UM, AND THEN IN ADDITION TO THAT, THAT PROBABLY WANTING TO HAVE SOME ABILITY TO HAVE DISCRETION FOR, UH, SPECIFIC THINGS THAT MAYBE AREN'T FOUND ON THAT LIST. I THINK TONIGHT THE COMMENT ABOUT ACCESS CROSS DOWN CONNECTORS WE'RE LIMITED. UH, THOSE IN SO FAR AS THEY PROVIDE EVACUATION AND EMERGENCY RESPONSE, UH, DON'T APPEAR ON THAT LIST. IT CONCERN THAT LIST CONCERNS ITSELF WITH STRUCTURES, NOT WITH OTHER THINGS. SO I THINK THERE WOULD HAVE TO BE SOME MODIFICATION OR SOME, UH, ADDITIONS AGAINST THE DISCRETION. GOT IT. OKAY. SO THIS CAN EVOLVE OVER TIME. UM, AND THEN FOR THE C-A-S-L-R 2024 STANDARDS, UH, HOW LONG UNTIL THOSE ARE ACTUALLY FINALIZED? I MEAN, I UNDERSTAND YOU PROVIDED A FAIR BIT OF CONTEXT FOR HOW MUCH IT'S MISSING AND HOW MUCH KIND OF PUBLIC COMMENT ENGAGEMENT STILL NEEDS TO TAKE PLACE, BUT FOR THEIR OWN ESTIMATE, HOW LONG FOR IT TO BE STANDARDIZED AND THEN HOW LONG IS IT EXPECTED TO LAST? 'CAUSE IT SEEMS LIKE IT'S, IT'S A NEW FRAMEWORK COMPARED TO THE 18 SET. AND I'M JUST WONDERING, ARE YOU, IS THIS ADOPTING A NEW FRAMEWORK THAT THEN IN A FEW, A FEW YEARS IS GONNA GET REPLACED WITH A NEW FRAMEWORK? UH, ON THE, ON THAT QUESTION OF THE FUNDAMENTAL FRAMEWORK SHIFT THAT IT DID, UH, GIVEN THAT IT MADE THAT SHIFT TO MATCH THE FEDERAL POLICY MM-HMM. , WHICH WAS UPDATED IN 2022, GUESS IS AS GOOD AS MINE. BUT HOPEFULLY THAT MEANS, YOU KNOW, WE'RE, WE'RE REFERRING TO A HIGHER AUTHORITY NOW AND, AND PERHAPS THAT MEANS THE FRAMEWORK WILL SETTLE DOWN FOR A BIT. SURE. THE DRAFT LANGUAGE SAYS IT WILL KEEP ON A FIVE YEAR UPDATE. SO HOPEFULLY 24 FOLLOWS BY, HOPEFULLY WE HAVE MOSTLY TILL THE END OF THE DECADE BEFORE THE STATE REVISES THAT. AND IN TERMS OF THEIR SCHEDULE, THE, UH, POSTED SCHEDULE FOR FINAL ADOPTION IS THIS SUMMER. IT IS IN PUBLIC REVIEW RIGHT NOW. OH, OKAY. UM, I WILL JUST SAY THE DRAFT WAS SUPPOSED TO COME OUT LAST SUMMER. UH, AND I WAS WEEKLY, UH, CONTACTING THE PROJECT MANAGER BEGGING FOR THIS THING. UM, SO THEY SAY THIS SUMMER. GOT IT. SO THIS SUMMER OR MAYBE NEXT SUMMER. GOT IT. NO, NO. I MEAN, STUFF HAPPENS. UM, AND THEN ONE LAST QUESTION AND THEN I'LL JUST MAKE A CLOSING COMMENT. UM, FOR THE FEMA MAP UPDATE PROCESS FOR COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT, I JUST HAD A QUESTION ABOUT HOW DOES COMMUNITY ENGAGEMENT FOR THAT MAPPING PROCESS LOOK LIKE? IS THERE A CERTAIN DENSITY REQ OR A CERTAIN, SORRY, NOT DENSITY REQUIREMENT. IS THERE A CERTAIN REQUIREMENT FOR THE AMOUNT OF ENGAGEMENT TAKING PLACE, NUMBER OF PEOPLE WHO'VE BEEN SURVEYED OR CONTACTED? OR IS DOES IT VARY BY THE MUNICIPALITY? AM NOT AWARE OF ANY METRICS IN ANY GUIDELINES? SO, YOU KNOW, IT, IT IS, IT IS OUR HABIT, UH, AND, AND PRACTICE AND BEST PRACTICE TO DO AS MUCH OUTREACH AS OFTEN AS WE CAN ON SOMETHING LIKE THIS. AND, AND I THINK THE CITY, UH, I THINK WE GO OUT OF OUR WAY, BOTH IN PUBLIC WORKS AND IN PLANNING, UH, TO DO JUST THAT. MM-HMM. . SO WHAT, I HAVE NOTHING TO MEASURE IT BY. OH, SURE. UH, BUT WHAT I CAN TELL YOU IS THAT OUR INTENT IS TO HAVE THE, THESE, UM, THE LARGELY IN-PERSON MEETINGS WITH LARGE SCALE HARD PRINTED MAPS OF, OF AREAS OF THE CITY FOR, FOR WHATEVER AREA WE'RE MEETING IN, SO THAT WE CAN, UM, WE CAN ANSWER QUESTIONS AND ENGAGE INDIVIDUALS THAT WANT INFORMATION. UH, ONE-ON-ONE. AND, UH, WE'LL PROVIDE A PRESENTATION AS WELL. AND WE'LL OFFER, UH, SOME REMOTE MEETINGS, UM, WHERE WE CAN TO MAKE SURE THAT WE'RE COVERING AS, YOU KNOW, AS MUCH OF THE COMMUNITY AS WE CAN CANVASSING. AND, UM, WE'LL HAVE OF COURSE OUR ONLINE OUTREACH AND SOCIAL MEDIA, UH, WE'LL BE CONTRIBUTING AND PROVIDING NOTICES FOR THESE EVENTS. SO IT'LL BE A FULL COURT PRESS MM-HMM. UM, TO GET OUT, TO GET THIS OUT IN THE COMMUNITY OVER THE NEXT TWO YEARS. UM, AND, UH, IT WILL TAKE SOME TIME AND IT WILL TAKE A LOT OF CARE. UM, BUT WE'RE DEDICATED TO DOING THAT AND WE UNDERSTAND HOW IMPORTANT IT WILL BE. YEAH, THAT'S GREAT. UM, I SHOULDN'T SAY I AM SURPRISED BY THE FACT THAT THE FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DOESN'T HAVE ANY STANDARDS FOR, FOR THE OUTREACH FOR MUNICIPALITY MUNICIPALITY, BUT I, I FULLY UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU'RE SAYING IN TERMS OF THE CITY'S APPROACH. UH, HEY, TO, TO THEIR CREDIT, FEMA DOES REQUIRE A COMMUNITY OUTREACH COMPONENT TO THE, UM, TO THE MAP AMENDMENT APPLICATION THAT WE'RE GONNA SUBMIT. BUT I DON'T [03:55:01] KNOW. IT, IT'S, IT, IT CAN'T POSSIBLY BE ANYWHERE NEAR AS ROBUST AS WHAT WE WOULD JUST DO. OH, SURE. ON A NORMAL PROJECT. UM, AND DAVE, YOU MIGHT BE ABLE TO SPEAK TO IT, YOU MIGHT BE MORE FAMILIAR WITH WHAT THEY ACTUALLY REQUIRE. THEY PROBABLY REQUIRE A COMMUNITY MEETING OR, YOU KNOW, SOME, SOMETHING OF THAT NATURE. UM, SO IT, IT WILL BE WAY ABOVE AND BEYOND TO BE SURE. DO YOU KNOW, I'M, NO, I MEAN THAT'S, THAT'S SATISFACTORY. I I WAS JUST CURIOUS TO KNOW IF THERE, THERE'S A STRANGE STANDARD OR NOT. UM, AND THEN JUST ENDING COMMENT. 'CAUSE I, I ALSO CONCUR, I THINK THIS IS REALLY GOOD NEWS TO BE SHARING WITH THE PUBLIC. I I DON'T THINK IT'S A SHADOW AT ALL IN TERMS OF OUR LONG-TERM VIABILITY. UH, I, I HAVE TO TRACK A LOT OF LIKE THE HOME INSURANCE ISSUE THAT WE'RE HAVING WITH THE STATE AT WORK QUITE OFTEN. AND WHAT WE'RE FINDING IS THE MUNICIPALITIES AND COMMUNITIES THAT ARE FOCUSING HARDER ON LONG-TERM PROJECTIONS AND STANDARDS, ESPECIALLY AROUND CLIMATE CHANGE, ARE THE ONES THAT ARE MOST RESILIENT TO SOME OF THESE SUDDEN AND FRANKLY, MORE PREDATORY CHANGES THAT PEOPLE ARE FINDING IN THEIR HOME INSURANCE. AND THIS IS EXPANDED TO CAR INSURANCE AND I'M SURE IT'LL EXPAND TO OTHER MARKETS AS THEY CONTINUE TO PRESSURE FOR HIGHER RATES. UM, ALSO, I'D JUST LIKE TO SAY THAT I REMEMBER STARTING HERE ON THE PLANNING COMMISSION AND HOW FRUSTRATING IT WAS TO NOTE THAT IF IT TALKED ABOUT FLOODING, WE WERE STUCK WITH A FEMA MAP. IF WE WERE TALKING ABOUT, UH, DEVELOPMENT STANDARDS, WE WERE STUCK WITH AN IZO THAT HAS ITS WELL-DOCUMENTED ISSUES THAT WE'VE HAD TO WORK AROUND. UH, WE ARE, THIS FINALLY REPRESENTS AN OPPORTUNITY FOR US TO BE PLANNING WITH FUTURE CONCERNS IN MIND WHERE WE'RE NOT HAVING TO HAVE THE COGNITIVE DISSIDENCE OF PRETENDING THAT THESE VERY REAL PROBLEMS ARE THERE, BUT THEN NOT BEING ABLE TO APPLY STANDARDS TO MATCH. SO I THINK THIS ENDS UP SERVING AS A REALLY FUNDAMENTAL BEDROCK FOR US. IF OFF OF THIS, WE'RE GONNA BE ABLE TO BUILD OUT A PROACTIVE LAND USE ELEMENT, A PROACTIVE IZO PROACTIVE DESIGN, UH, DESIGN STANDARDS AND, AND REALLY LINK ALL OF THAT TO KIND OF THE CLIMATE CONCERNS WE HAVE FOR THE NEXT 20 YEARS, ESPECIALLY IF WE'RE, WE'RE LOOKING AT SEA LEVEL RISE AND AT THE SAME TIME OUR LOVELY VALLEY FLOODING SITUATION THAT WE'VE ALL KNOWN WE'VE HAD THIS ENTIRE TIME. UH, AND I'D LIKE TO POINT OUT THE MARKET HATES UNCERTAINTY BEYOND ANYTHING ELSE. SO THE MORE WE CAN DO THIS, THE MORE WE FUTURE PROOF OUR TOWN. UH, AND THE OTHER POINT, AND I'M GONNA NERD OUT ON THIS FOR A WHILE, BUT IT'S BECAUSE I'VE WORKED IN GOVERNMENT FOR A WHILE AND I'VE HAD TO DEAL WITH A LOT OF BAD SOFTWARE PLATFORMS. IT IS AMAZING THAT WE'RE USING THE HTEC PLATFORM, THE FACT THAT WE HAVE SOMETHING THAT IS DESIGNED FOR GOVERNMENT USE THAT WILL ALWAYS BE UPDATED BECAUSE IT'S NOT ON US TO FUND THOSE UPDATES IN TERMS OF THE PLATFORM CAPABILITIES. THE FACT THAT YOU THEN GET A DEEP LIBRARY OF DATA SETS, HOW THOSE DATA SETS WORK DON'T WORK, POTENTIAL AUGMENTED FUNCTIONS AS TIME GOES ON. AND THEN YOU HAVE AN ACTIVE TECHNICAL COMMUNITY CONSTANTLY GOING INTO ISSUES THAT MIGHT ARISE, DIFFERENT WAYS TO TEST IT, THAT IS A WONDERFUL THING TO BUILD SO MUCH OF OUR POLICY ON GOING FORWARD. AND ONE LAST BIT I JUST WANNA SAY, 'CAUSE I, I KNOW IT MIGHT HAVE SOUNDED A LITTLE HARSH TRYING TO KEEP SOME OF OUR QUESTIONS SO FOCUSED ON THIS AND NOT KIND OF THE LAND USE THAT I ALL KNOW, I KNOW WE ALL WANT TO GET TO. UH, ANDREW AND I HAVE CERTAINLY BEEN TALKING A FAIR BIT ABOUT WHAT THE TIMELINE FOR GENERAL PLAN DISCUSSION LOOKS LIKE FOR THE PLANNING COMMISSION. AND WELL, THAT'S NOT FINALIZED. WE'VE CERTAINLY SEEN WHERE SOME OF THE TIMELINES ARE FIXED, ESPECIALLY WHEN IT COMES TO, UH, THE EIR AND WHEN IT COMES TO THE, WHEN THE LAND USE ELEMENT SHOWS UP AND WHEN WE HAVE TO REALLY DIG IN, WE ARE NOT GONNA GET MULTIPLE BYTES OF THE APPLE FOR SOME OF THESE THINGS, WHICH MEANS THIS IS PROBABLY THE ONLY TIME WE'RE GONNA GET TO DIG INTO THIS MODEL AND TO QUESTION THE MODEL AND TO GIVE STAFF FEEDBACK. THE NEXT THING WE LOOK AT WILL PROBABLY BE THE ONLY TIME WE GET TO DIVE DEEP INTO THAT. SO IT'S NOT TO BE STRICT SO MUCH AS IF OUR, IF OUR JOB IS TO MAXIMIZE THE FEEDBACK WE'RE PROVIDING WITH THE COMMUNITY'S CONCERNS IN MIND, IN MIND FOR EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS. AND EACH OF THESE ELEMENTS ESSENTIALLY END UP STACKING ON TOP OF EACH OTHER AS WE GO THROUGH THIS GENERAL PLAN PROCESS. WE REALLY HAVE TO CONCENTRATE OUR FOCUS AT EACH STAGE ON THAT STAGE. YES, MINDFUL OF WHAT COMES NEXT, BUT NOT MISSING THE OPPORTUNITY SINCE WE ONLY HAVE SO MANY HOURS TO LOOK AT EACH PART. UM, AND THAT'S THE END OF MY SOAPBOX THERE. WITH THAT, ARE THERE ANY OTHER QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS FROM COMMISSIONERS ? I, I SEE, I SEE A COUNCIL MEMBER'S POINT. I THINK WE CAN WRAP UP [04:00:01] THIS ITEM AND THIS ALSO THEN CONCLUDES THE JOINT PORTION OF IT. I WANT TO REALLY, WE HAVE PUBLIC COMMENTS, WE HAVE PUBLIC COMMENT. I AM SO SORRY, DWAYNE, YOU'VE BEEN WAITING HERE THIS WHOLE TIME AND I JUST SKIPPED RIGHT PAST IT. I FEEL INCREDIBLY RUDE. DWAYNE, PLEASE. THANK YOU. UH, I'VE BEEN WAITING LONGER THAN THAT. UM, UH, MY, MY, UH, RECOLLECTION IS THAT I WAS IN THIS VERY ROOM, UH, 25 YEARS AGO WHEN THEY WERE DECIDING TO BUILD THE SEPTIC SYSTEM UP HERE. AND I, I PROBABLY SHOULD APOLOGIZE TO EVERYONE. I ONLY ASK THAT THEY RAISE IT 10 FEET ABOVE THE SEA LEVEL AND HERE IN THIS OYSTER, OYSTER COVE WORDS TODAY. UH, MAYBE I SHOULD HAVE ASKED FOR 15 FEET BECAUSE YOUR, YOUR MAP SHOWS A THIRD OF IT UNDERWATER. BUT THAT'S, UH, ANYWAY, THAT'S JUST, UH, I ALSO, UH, WAS, UH, WAS UP TO, UH, HERE IN WATER AT LEISURE LAKE WHEN A, WHEN A NEIGHBOR ASKED ME TO GO OVER AND CHECK ON HER MOTHER. AND IT WAS UP TO THE FLOORBOARDS IN LEISURE LAKE. AND I CAN REMEMBER DOING, I CAN REMEMBER BEING UP, UH, GOING TO CHECK ON LEISURE LAKE. UH, FRANKLY, WE SHOULD BUY THE PROPERTY ACROSS THE CITY, SHOULD BUY THE PROPERTY DIRECTLY ACROSS, UM, STONY POINT, MOVE ALL THOSE TRAILERS OVER THERE, ALL THOSE MOBILE HOMES OVER THERE ON HIGHER GROUND, DIG OUT LEISURE LAKE AND MAKE IT INTO A STORAGE BASIN FOR WATER. AND WE SHOULD PAY FOR THAT WITH SOME OF THE DEVELOPMENT THAT'S BEING BUILT. UM, 20 YEARS AGO, I ALSO ASKED THAT WE NOT BUILD ANYTHING LESS THAN 10 FEET, UH, ANYWHERE UP DOWN HERE. WE SHOULD MAKE IT INTO FARMLAND AND, AND, UH, PARKS. BUT THAT'S, UM, LET'S SEE, WHAT ELSE DID I WANNA MENTION? UM, YEAH, THE, UH, YEAH, AFTER THAT, UH, UH, ROGER, UH, I WOULDN'T BUY ANYTHING LOWER THAN 10 FEET EVER SINCE I WANDERED INTO LEISURE LAKE AND SAW WHAT HAPPENS, UH, WHEN YOU LIVE, UH, WHEN YOU, YOU SPEND YOUR LIFE WORRIED ABOUT WHEN THE WATER'S COMING FOR YOU. UM, AS A TECHNICAL ASPECT THOUGH, THAT, UH, MIGHT BE WORTHWHILE IN THE SCIENCE HERE. UM, THE, I WOULD BE INTERESTED IN THE FREQUENCY OF FIRES, OF FREQUENCY OF FIRES IN CALIFORNIA AND HOW THAT DENUDE THE LAND SO THAT THE WATER COMES DOWN FASTER AND MORE FORCEFULLY DURING A FLOOD. I'D LIKE TO KNOW BOTH THE SONOMA COUNTY AND THE WHOLE, UH, SIERRAS BECAUSE THE WATER THAT COMES DOWN IN THE SIERRAS CARRYING MUD COMES UP DURING A KING TIDE GETS DEPOSITED IN OUR BASIN. AND I WOULD LIKE TO KNOW HOW MUCH THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS IS MOVING MUD FROM THE HILLS OF SONOMA AND HOW MUCH OF IT HAS COME IN HERE FROM SACRAMENTO, UH, RIVER. AND THAT'S, UH, WOULD BE AN IMPORTANT NUMBER TO KNOW, TO KNOW EXACTLY HOW OFTEN WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO DIG OUT THE FLOOD BASIN TO PREVENT, UH, IT BEING THE, EVERY TIME THERE'S A FLOOD, IT SPREADS ALL THE WAY ACROSS THE VALLEY. IF I WAS GOING TO BE ASKING, UM, I'D ASK WASHINGTON ABOUT, UM, UH, THEIR FLOODING THERE. I DON'T KNOW IF YOU'VE, ANY OF YOU'VE READ WHAT, UH, WHAT HAPPENS WHEN WE'VE GOT A HIGH TIDE, KING TIDE IN WASHINGTON DC UH, THE ARMY CORPS OF ENGINEERS MAY WANNA KNOW, THEY, THEY WANTED TO TELL ABOUT, READ ABOUT IT, THE SMITHSONIAN, THEY'VE GOT A SANDBAG. THEY SHOULD BE MOVING THE SMITHSONIAN TO HIGHER GROUND RATHER THAN LET OUR NATIONAL TREASURERS GET FLOODED. IF, IF THEY DON'T, IF THEY DON'T, UH, GET A TIMED EXACTLY RIGHT TO CLOSE IT OFF. UM, I WOULD ASK, WHAT, WHAT, WHAT WOULD VALLEJO HAVE SAID THAT NOT GEORGE WASHINGTON SAID, HE SAID, BUILD IT IN A SWAMP. UH, VALLEJO STOOD UP HERE ON THE HILL AND SAID, NO, HE DIDN'T BUILD HOUSING FOR HIS CHILDREN DOWN HERE ON THE, ON THE 10 FOOT LEVEL. I, I DON'T, I THINK THAT'S IT. I DON'T WANNA CUT YOU OFF, BUT YOU'VE HIT THE END OF YOUR TIME. I THINK THAT'S IT. THANK YOU. THANK YOU VERY MUCH. AND WITH THAT, WE WILL CLOSE OUT THE I ITEM UNLESS THERE'S ANOTHER, I DO WANNA STATE THAT WE RECEIVED ONE, UH, PUBLIC COMMENT PRIOR TO THE MEETING. IT'S AVAILABLE ONLINE TO VIEW AND IT'S ALSO AVAILABLE IN THE BACK FOR COMMUNITY MEMBERS TO READ. EXCELLENT. AND NOW WE WILL CLOSE OUT THE ITEM AND THIS WILL END, ESSENTIALLY THE JOINT PORTION OF THE MEETING. WE'RE ALMOST DONE. SO YOU'RE WELCOME TO STAY AND IF YOU WANNA RUN OUT OF HERE AND NEVER TALK TO US AGAIN, I UNDERSTAND THAT TOO. . UM, WITH THAT WE WILL MOVE [COMMITTEE COMMENT] STRAIGHT INTO COMMISSION COMMENT AND I'LL START ON THIS SIDE WITH RICK. NO COMMENT. JESSICA. UM, JUST A QUICK PLUG, SINCE OUR LAST MEETING, I WORKED AT THE VOTING CENTER AT THE PETALUMA COMMUNING COMMUNITY CENTER FOR EARLY VOTING, AND IT WAS A LOT OF FUN. UH, HIGHLY RECOMMEND IF YOU ARE INTERESTED LOOKING AT THAT, UM, THROUGH THE REGISTRAR OF VOTERS FOR NOVEMBER. AND, UH, BE A POLL WORKER IS A GOOD TIME, GOOD PEOPLE, GOOD WAY TO MEET THE COMMUNITY AND, UH, SORT OF HAND-TO-HAND COMBAT ON DEMOCRACY. SO PLUG FOR BEING A POLL WORKER, ROGER. [04:05:01] NO COMMENT. ALRIGHT. UM, I JUST WANTED TO PUT A PLUG FOR, UH, FRIENDS OF THE PETALUMA, THEY FRIENDS OF THE PETALUMA RIVER, THEY HAVE A, UH, WATERSHED RESTORATION PROGRAM. THEY'VE HAD IT FOR MANY YEARS. IF YOU HAVE CONCERNS ABOUT OUR LONG-TERM ISSUES WITH FLOODING, IT'S A WORTHWHILE, WORTHWHILE PROGRAM TO VOLUNTEER FOR. AND THAT'S ALL I HAVE. NOTHING. THANK YOU, DARREN. GIVE A QUICK UPDATE FROM PBA C UH, THE LAST PBAC MEETING WAS PRETTY LOADED. WE WENT OVER THE CAULFIELD BRIDGE, UH, THE CURRENT DESIGN PHASE, THE ACTIVE TRANSPORT IMPROVEMENTS THAT ARE GOING ON AROUND THE TRAFFIC CIRCLE, AND THEN JUST OVER THE BRIDGE. NICE. A LOT TO DISCUSS THERE AND A LOT MORE TO COME, ESPECIALLY WITH THIS GROUP, SOME OF THOSE IMPROVEMENTS ALONG THAT CORRIDOR DOWN TO THE LARGE OVAL WHERE WE JUST REVIEWED SPIRIT LIVING. AND I'VE BEEN ASSURED THAT ALL THAT'S COMING. WE WERE ALL KIND OF CHOMPING AT THE BIT FOR THAT. AND THEN WE ALSO WENT OVER THE IMPROVEMENTS TO HOWARD STREET. SOME BIG CHANGES THERE. UH, POTENTIALLY MAKING SOME STREETS ONE WAY, PREVENTING LEFT TURNS FROM STANLEY NEAR THE SHELL STATION, WHICH IS A COMMUTER. I DIDN'T LOVE THAT IDEA, BUT I TOTALLY AGREE. UH, SO SOME GREAT IMPROVEMENTS THERE. AND THEN WE ALSO HAD, UH, COMMISSION MEMBER KELLY BOND GIVE A GREAT PRESENTATION ON NAPA'S, UH, BLUE ZONES. NICE. WHICH IS A GREAT GRASSROOTS PROJECT. NICE. AND, UH, YEAH, THAT WAS PBAC. VERY COOL. AND, AND NOTHING FROM OUR, FROM OUR COUNCIL LIAISON. UH, DO WE HAVE A STAFF [STAFF COMMENT] PRESENTATION OR COMMENT? UH, JUST VERY BRIEF. GREAT. THANK YOU CHAIR. SO, UH, JUST WANTED TO REMIND YOU THAT, UH, TOMORROW EVENING URBAN CHAT IS HOSTING NINE WAYS TO MAKE HOUSING FOR PEOPLE WITH DAVID BAKER ARCHITECTS. SO, UH, IF YOU'RE, IF YOU'RE ON THEIR EMAIL LIST, I'M SURE YOU'VE RECEIVED THOSE INVITATIONS, 7:00 PM AT THE MYSTIC THEATER. SO, UM, THAT'S, THAT'S DEFINITELY GONNA BE AN, UH, INFORMATIVE AND EXCITING EVENT. UM, THANK YOU ALL FOR REPLYING TO, UH, REEL'S REQUEST FOR AVAILABILITY FOR PLANNING COMMISSION MEETINGS THROUGH THE END OF MAY. WE DO HAVE QUORUMS FOR ALL OF THE REGULARLY SCHEDULED MEETINGS AND, UH, WE DO HAVE MEETING ITEMS, UM, FOR EACH OF THOSE MEETINGS. SO YOU CAN, UH, PLAN ON, UM, EACH OF THOSE MEETINGS BEING, UM, HELD THROUGH THE END OF MAY. ALSO, UM, WE WILL BE, UH, EACH OF THE FIRST TUESDAY MEETINGS WILL FEATURE SOME COMPONENT OF GENERAL PLAN REVIEW, BE VERY SIMILAR IN NATURE TO THIS EVENING'S MEETING. UH, WE'LL BE COMING TO YOU ON APRIL 9TH WITH MORE INFORMATION ABOUT WHAT THOSE MEETINGS WILL LOOK LIKE AND HOW THE COMMISSION WILL BE ASKED TO WORK ITS WAY THROUGH THE FRAMEWORK REVIEWS, UH, BEFORE THOSE FRAMEWORKS ARE, ARE, UH, WELL AS PART OF THE INTRODUCTION FOR PUBLIC REVIEW. SO, UM, JUST TO ANTICIPATE THAT AND, UM, AND THEN ON THE, THE SECOND MEETINGS, THEN WE'LL, WE'LL THEN FEATURE, UH, SOME SITE PLAN AND ARCHITECTURAL REVIEWS, TYPICAL DEVELOPMENT REVIEWS THAT, UH, YOU WOULD EXPECT AS A COMMISSION. SO OTHER THAN THAT, THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME AGAIN THIS EVENING, AND, UH, WE LOOK FORWARD TO SEEING YOU AT THE NEXT MEETING. WELL, WITH THAT, WE'RE GONNA ADJOURN THE EVENING. THANK YOU EVERYONE. * This transcript was created by voice-to-text technology. The transcript has not been edited for errors or omissions, it is for reference only and is not the official minutes of the meeting.